theweatheroutlook

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dagspot
09 January 2023 18:58:27
brief or hail no use to anyone… 
Neilston 600ft ASL
ballamar
09 January 2023 19:05:59
Definitely looking like a struggle in the next 10 days for consensus but chance for some more wintry weather around. How much amplification there will be is anyones guess or spoiler short waves otherwise know as low pressure could spoil the fun. Would love some heavy wintry showers. More NW parts should see the fun
ballamar
09 January 2023 23:29:26
GFS op comes up with a textbook easterly at the end - would cause a few headaches
Chunky Pea
09 January 2023 23:57:50

I wouldn't say no to this:

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



That just looks downright nasty. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
BJBlake
10 January 2023 00:44:33

An inch of slush? Probably... just.

Think I'd put preferences of general events that we've had in the last 12/13 years in the following order:

1) Good fall of snow followed by cold spell for at least 3-4 weeks that keeps snow on the ground
2) Decent fall of snow that only lasts 3-4 days
3) UK high lasting 3-4 weeks bringing settled, chilly and foggy conditions
4) Euro-high ridging over the UK to give period of settled but mild weather
4) Two-day slush-fest within a mostly mobile and usettled but chilly set-up
5) Continuation of unsettled, mild and wet

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Just about sums up most people’s preferences on here: Let’s hope for a Bingo - number 1 - as per the GFS FI eye candy served up tonight - like some knickerbocker glory after a post Christmas diet induced sugar drought...LOL 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 January 2023 08:49:33
WX - really cold weather over Russia still playing hard-to-get, though much of W Europe away from the SW cools down after being mild in week1, including some effect on Scotland. Still wet for Atlantic coasts extending inland to include France and Germany; No let-up for Britain, showing as wetter than in yesterday's charts.

JET mostly strong and frequently aimed directly at the British Isles for the next fortnight. FAX has a procession of LPs crossing Scotland this week (further S than GFS Op) with active fronts for the rest of Britain today, Thu & Sat.

GFS Op mostly westerly with an occasional break if the LP takes a more S-ly track through the N Sea. Pressure centres at 965mb Orkney Wed 11th, 975mb Fri 13th Hebrides, 985mb Sun 15th NI, 970mb E Scotland Wed 18th (this is the break and brings in N-lies for a couple of days),  Mon 23rd 975mb Orkney, Wed 25th 975mb Norway (more N-lies) 

ECM much the same with slight differences in timing

GEFS like yesterday, temps up and down esp in the S until Sun 15th, then on the cool side for ten days or so. Rain well distributed in time and space, heaviest in west and in the S around Sun 15th. Snow row figures commonly 20+/33 for the Highlands, not a great deal elsewhere.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
ballamar
10 January 2023 11:31:04
Not a particularly inspiring op run with heights setting up over Europe again in the latter stages. Pretty pointless as it changes so often. Next week could spring a couple of surprises in terms of snow especially if coinciding with nighttime 
nsrobins
10 January 2023 11:44:16

Not a particularly inspiring op run with heights setting up over Europe again in the latter stages. Pretty pointless as it changes so often. Next week could spring a couple of surprises in terms of snow especially if coinciding with nighttime 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


As gunky as 'we might get something if it's dark' sounds it's probably the best most of us can hope for as it stands, with the GFS OP (debate over it's integrity ongoing) moving away from the idea of decent amplification now.
The decent pattern from the GEM in the last few runs is looking a little isolated now.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Lionel Hutz
10 January 2023 14:18:49

Not a particularly inspiring op run with heights setting up over Europe again in the latter stages. Pretty pointless as it changes so often. Next week could spring a couple of surprises in terms of snow especially if coinciding with nighttime 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I know that alot of us will write off our chances of snow on a North-Westerly. However, there's always the chance that snowfall(if it's cold enough)won't just be confined to prone places. Given the right synoptics, you can see more widespread snow if polar lows develop.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)  

It looks marginal at best but who knows?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=165&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Saint Snow
10 January 2023 14:44:37

I know that alot of us will write off our chances of snow on a North-Westerly. However, there's always the chance that snowfall(if it's cold enough)won't just be confined to prone places. Given the right synoptics, you can see more widespread snow if polar lows develop.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)  

It looks marginal at best but who knows?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=165&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 




According to the snow rows, Birmingham's got better prospects for snow than Liverpool!

(more to do with Liverpool being on the coast; move a few miles inland and the prospects improve)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Gandalf The White
10 January 2023 15:41:25

I know that alot of us will write off our chances of snow on a North-Westerly. However, there's always the chance that snowfall(if it's cold enough)won't just be confined to prone places. Given the right synoptics, you can see more widespread snow if polar lows develop.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=birmingham&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)  

It looks marginal at best but who knows?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=165&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 



The charts recently have hinted at a spell of cold zonality and it looks to be firming up on that scenario.  Essentially cold rain for lowland areas from the Midlands south, but if a disturbance takes a track that keeps the cold air on its northern edge then transient wintriness and some possible snowfalls are on the menu.  But nothing especially cold and no real sign of it being more than a passing phase before perhaps turning milder and more settled towards the south later.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
scarborough whiteout
10 January 2023 16:22:15
Wow. What a turn around from the dross that was showing a few days ago? If you love cold and snow things might get quite interesting. Met Office update looking snowy too.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2023 16:45:57
Yep good 12s so far especially GEM and UKMO.  GEM even has some snow for the South next week. UKMO has -8c 850s as far south as Birmingham by 144h.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
10 January 2023 16:47:22
Interesting op run GFS - the blob of orange is interesting might be able to get a Scandi high!
Hippydave
10 January 2023 17:21:03

Interesting op run GFS - the blob of orange is interesting might be able to get a Scandi high!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I reckon GFS has that nailed - Scandi HP and -10 uppers bringing snow IMBY. All at only T360 onwards😋

Ignoring the deep FI amusement, colder zonal looks favoured in the mid term with more amplification allowing ridges Northwards and colder air to flow south at times - usually (but not always) chilly, miserable and damp IMBY but good for Northern hills and brings the risk of transient snow from the Midlands upwards although very much dependent on lots of variables coming good at the right time.

The GFS Scandi solution isn't too implausible against the backdrop of repeated ridges of HP and a more meandering jet but equally HP developing to our South as the ridges topple in to Europe is very plausible too and more common than a decent Scandi block (and being picky the GFS op version looks pretty tenuous and under pressure at the end of the run).

At least there's some charts to speculate over at the moment, rather than the flat zonal dross of recent weeks!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
10 January 2023 18:01:47
Met Global pulls some very cold air southwards for a short time early next week.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gandalf The White
10 January 2023 18:03:22

I reckon GFS has that nailed - Scandi HP and -10 uppers bringing snow IMBY. All at only T360 onwards😋

Ignoring the deep FI amusement, colder zonal looks favoured in the mid term with more amplification allowing ridges Northwards and colder air to flow south at times - usually (but not always) chilly, miserable and damp IMBY but good for Northern hills and brings the risk of transient snow from the Midlands upwards although very much dependent on lots of variables coming good at the right time.

The GFS Scandi solution isn't too implausible against the backdrop of repeated ridges of HP and a more meandering jet but equally HP developing to our South as the ridges topple in to Europe is very plausible too and more common than a decent Scandi block (and being picky the GFS op version looks pretty tenuous and under pressure at the end of the run).

At least there's some charts to speculate over at the moment, rather than the flat zonal dross of recent weeks!

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



What are the odds on the next run having pressure 80mb lower over northern Scandi at Day 15?   
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Hippydave
10 January 2023 18:09:43

What are the odds on the next run having pressure 80mb lower over northern Scandi at Day 15?   
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Rather good I'd imagine🤣

It'll be interesting to see if it's a flash in a pan or has a bit of ens support and/or is toyed with over the next couple of days. All depends on what the jet does and whether we get another strong, flat pulse before anything interesting can happen I guess. 

Aside from me cherry picking deep FI to suit MBY, was expecting a little more interest re the GFS (and GEM) ops - cold enough for wintriness over a fairly wide area at times. Nothing exceptional but interesting I'd have said, assuming it doesn't get watered down as we get closer.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
doctormog
10 January 2023 18:26:44
There does definitely seem to be a bit of a trend towards something on the colder side of average in the medium term. Nothing remarkable and probably not extremely wintry but there could be some interesting weather around that is more than mild, wet and windy. The 12z GEFS t850 ensemble mean here dips below average on the 13th and remains there.

Here is the 24hr snow probability chart using the 12z GEFS data for 126hr so not exactly deep FI:  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-126.png?12  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tierradelfuego
10 January 2023 18:51:01

What are the odds on the next run having pressure 80mb lower over northern Scandi at Day 15?   
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



4 to 1 on the nose for a Horse called Rough Rider.

At least from a few models and Ens things are looking more interesting now, the 17th/18th might even touch a frost down here, crazy times for mid-winter!!
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2023 19:12:53
ECM also has a huge dump of snow for the South next week. Eyebrows officially raised.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20230118-1200z.html 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
10 January 2023 19:21:19
A big step today towards colder - ECM also flirting with the idea of decent pressure rise. Not looking at specifics just the trend and that looks positive. Odds on Scandi high look shorter
Gandalf The White
10 January 2023 19:23:56

ECM also has a huge dump of snow for the South next week. Eyebrows officially raised.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20230118-1200z.html 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



That's almost the perfect track to deliver snowfall on the eastern flank. But that's the risk - even 100 miles either way and the result is entirely different. 

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
10 January 2023 20:09:41
That NW'ly on the ECM tonight looks to be more cold feeling than cold in any meaningful sense regarding temps. It's the sort of pattern though that can trigger random potent shortwaves at only a moments notice, so hopefully some storm 10/11 winds on offer in future runs. 



 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
MRayner
10 January 2023 21:03:37
I appreciate it’s called the pub run, but can anyone explain why the colder runs always seem to appear in the evenings? 
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL

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