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doctormog
10 January 2023 21:18:05

I appreciate it’s called the pub run, but can anyone explain why the colder runs always seem to appear in the evenings? 

Originally Posted by: MRayner 



The (GFS) “pub run” is the 18z run due out shortly. The runs being discussed are the 12z sets.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
10 January 2023 21:42:44

I appreciate it’s called the pub run, but can anyone explain why the colder runs always seem to appear in the evenings? 

Originally Posted by: MRayner 


just perception it only really gets highlighted when it’s a cold run. There have been many poor pub runs
Gandalf The White
10 January 2023 21:54:46

just perception it only really gets highlighted when it’s a cold run. There have been many poor pub runs

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Exactly. It's the same as regards comments about the models changing with each run - they always change, but we don't subject average or mild output to anything like the same intense scrutiny.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
10 January 2023 21:57:50
ECM ENS suggesting 4 or 5 cold days are probable even in the south next week.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/ecm-tables.aspx 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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UncleAlbert
10 January 2023 22:54:27

That's almost the perfect track to deliver snowfall on the eastern flank. But that's the risk - even 100 miles either way and the result is entirely different. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



And a shallow LP would assist any wintryness generally.
fairweather
11 January 2023 01:45:26
Changes afoot in a week's time. Colder than it has been in the South since before Christmas and perhaps some High Pressure around at times making for less rain. That's all I'm saying at this stage but it appears to be a trend developing 😉
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2023 07:40:47
To early for details but looks like a half decent cold spell between 15th and 20th. Snow chances for many even in the South but especially northern hills. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
MRayner
11 January 2023 07:43:01
Most of the models appear to be lining up for a cold spell indeed. Fingers crossed🥶
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Brian Gaze
11 January 2023 07:48:13
Brutal cold on its way. (36 years ago today)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1987&month=Jan&dom=11&var=tmp®ion=NA&level=850&hour=00 


UserPostedImage 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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nsrobins
11 January 2023 07:59:44

Brutal cold on its way. (36 years ago today)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1987&month=Jan&dom=11&var=tmp®ion=NA&level=850&hour=00 


UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Much has been written, and there have been many comparisons, but that short but brutal spell remains the winter highlight at least for me here in Deep South. Mon 12th Jan in isolation was as good as it gets - a NE gale, -6C max and blowing, drifting snow. What a day!
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 January 2023 08:23:21
WX charts - although the really cold area remains well to the N and E, western Europe is cooling down quite widely in week2, with freezing areas appearing over high ground, not just the Alps but small patches in N Scotland, N Germany and N Spain. The pptn chart has changed, still wet on the Atlantic and inland to France and Germany in week 1, but a large dry area becomes established over W Europe with rain pushed NW on the Atlantic clear of land, and also SE to the Adriatic.

GFS Op - three phases (1) the usual zonal W-lies with LPs moving past/across Scotland to Sat 14th (2) the last of these LPs dips into the N Sea and stays there for a period with cold N/NW-lies to Fri 20th (3) pressure then rises, moving up from the SW to establish over S Norway 1045mb Wed 25th with SE-lies lasting to end of run Fri 27th.

ECM - like GFS at first but the trough in the N Sea dips further S to an LP centre in the Channel 975mb Tue 17th looking very wintry for a couple of days; then the HP stays out to the SW with NW-lies continuing

GEFS - temps up and down at first esp in S then cold to Fri 19th after which mean is near norm but sitting in the middle of  a wide range of ens temps. Peaks of rain Thu 12th, Sat 14th and Tue 17th,  then irregularly in some runs mainly in the W
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
sunny coast
11 January 2023 09:45:57

Much has been written, and there have been many comparisons, but that short but brutal spell remains the winter highlight at least for me here in Deep South. Mon 12th Jan in isolation was as good as it gets - a NE gale, -6C max and blowing, drifting snow. What a day!

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 




Yes remember it well on the south coast  in worthing at the time coldest day of the century . Was about as severs as it can get in some ways comparable with Jan 82 which was less severe for the SE than elsewhere.   In the 87 spell the Meday towns had at least 2 fwet of level snow  incredible lake effect snowfall . Sussex didn't have falls that heavy but a foot was pretty widespread in the East of the county 
Saint Snow
11 January 2023 09:48:53
Barring a 10 minute snow shower, it was bone dry IMBY. Watching the news of snowmageddon (no doubt it being the SE being most affected that guaranted extensive headlines...) then looking outside prompted feelings of confusion and disappointment.

It was bloody cold, though.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Rob K
11 January 2023 11:23:59
I really don't have any memories of Jan 1987, strangely. Yet I remember the snow of 1982 despite only being 4 then, and 9 in 1987!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Taylor1740
11 January 2023 11:26:18
Latter stages of the GFS 6z do not look good, back to the mild South Westerlies after a brief cold snap next week. Let's hope the longer term outlook improves and starts to show signs of a more significant cold spell than what we are looking at next week.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
11 January 2023 11:46:51
Can anyone remember the date of the “Kettley High” when only northern parts saw any cold after a brief promise that we might get Snowmaggedon
westv
11 January 2023 11:50:53

Can anyone remember the date of the “Kettley High” when only northern parts saw any cold after a brief promise that we might get Snowmaggedon

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


2001??
At least it will be mild!
Gusty
11 January 2023 12:02:08

Can anyone remember the date of the “Kettley High” when only northern parts saw any cold after a brief promise that we might get Snowmaggedon

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Early Jan 2001 from memory.
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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nsrobins
11 January 2023 12:06:33

Latter stages of the GFS 6z do not look good, back to the mild South Westerlies after a brief cold snap next week. Let's hope the longer term outlook improves and starts to show signs of a more significant cold spell than what we are looking at next week.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


The last few runs of GFS have still got the two brief Northerly bursts but have backed-off the idea of removing heights to the south alowing anything more substantial. I'm guessing the OPs might again be on teh mild side of teh suite and with GEM and to a certain extent EC remaining bullish this still has potential.
Tues 17th Jan is still presenting itself as a potentuial snow day for some areas.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
11 January 2023 12:06:54

Can anyone remember the date of the “Kettley High” when only northern parts saw any cold after a brief promise that we might get Snowmaggedon

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Feb 2001 from here I think.

Kettley high charts 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
11 January 2023 12:13:57

Feb 2001 from here I think.

Kettley high charts 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



that’s the one thanks Brian
UncleAlbert
11 January 2023 12:14:01

Latter stages of the GFS 6z do not look good, back to the mild South Westerlies after a brief cold snap next week. Let's hope the longer term outlook improves and starts to show signs of a more significant cold spell than what we are looking at next week.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Does seem to be a certain amount of variability, pattern wise, with respect to the 7-16 day model output at the moment, so  may be.... just may be, a few surprises in store for the next few runs.
ballamar
11 January 2023 12:35:31
The op is at the higher end inGEFS for much of the later stages. But there is a potential cold snap in 5 days so will hopefully enjoy that. Think further out will be volatile and change many times as it usually does. I still believe there is a chance of more interest over Scandi before Jan is out
Taylor1740
11 January 2023 12:55:24

The last few runs of GFS have still got the two brief Northerly bursts but have backed-off the idea of removing heights to the south alowing anything more substantial. I'm guessing the OPs might again be on teh mild side of teh suite and with GEM and to a certain extent EC remaining bullish this still has potential.
Tues 17th Jan is still presenting itself as a potentuial snow day for some areas.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


milder after the cold snap next week does also look to be supported by the ensembles at the moment though.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
11 January 2023 13:20:20

milder after the cold snap next week does also look to be supported by the ensembles at the moment though.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



So what you're saying is that we need to look deep into the unreliable FI time period for mild weather? Interesting.

The colder, potentially wintry,snap may not even happen given the timescale so guessing beyond then looks a bit pointless to me to be honest as only a few days ago it was mooted that it would continue mild throughout the entire month.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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