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Ally Pally Snowman
30 June 2023 07:12:46
Best ECM for ages. Our omnipresent low drifts far enough west to allow high pressure from the east and then south to build in nicely.  Very warm aswell. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
30 June 2023 07:25:59

Probably not the correct thread, but not sure where to post really. Hysterical BBC 10 o’clock news weather showing 8c max across the country. They did admit it was wrong of course, so obviously having a few issues. Amused me anyway…

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



MeteoGroup app the same this morning. Showing 8c in a SW’ly flow in July. What the hell?
Chingford
London E4
147ft
bledur
30 June 2023 08:03:33

I like hot weather mainly for the warm evenings when the sunset is so late at this time of year.

The tradeoff is it can be too hot to work - my new extension gets pretty warm, I did invest in a desk fan the other week.
Right now though it feels quite chilly with the window open although the thermostat reckons it is 22C in here.

Models look generally unsettled and LP dominated for the next 10-14 days. Let's hope GEFS run 30 on the 00Z is the trendsetter!

Rob K wrote:


You could put a Jumper on😎
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2023 08:31:49

MeteoGroup app the same this morning. Showing 8c in a SW’ly flow in July. What the hell?

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



This was mentioned on BBC 5 Live this morning. There is some glitch in the data conversion process (presumable API) that's causing this issue. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2023 08:38:10
Looking at GFS and ECM this morning, the summary is a fairly cool first week in July with hints of something warmer (perhaps hot) in week 2. Later in week 2 GFS brings temperatures back down to near normal but that's a long way off. Wet in the north west, much drier in the south east. Fairly typical mid summer weather really which will suit Downpour (who revels in these situations 😉).

If it does cool down again mid month I can already see the headlines for July 19th:
Britain shivers in coolest summer for 3 years! Temperatures this day last year reached 40c and today is more than 20C (68F) [sic] cooler in many parts of the UK. 



 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
30 June 2023 09:35:37

Best ECM for ages. Our omnipresent low drifts far enough west to allow high pressure from the east and then south to build in nicely.  Very warm aswell. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Looking good for next week Thursday when having a new french door put in so need warm dry weather plus I am off from work for 2 weeks so perfect timing as well.  This unsettled weather seem very little effect and little rain for the midlands area with average temperatures.  
+1
Rob K
30 June 2023 10:26:43

Probably not the correct thread, but not sure where to post really. Hysterical BBC 10 o’clock news weather showing 8c max across the country. They did admit it was wrong of course, so obviously having a few issues. Amused me anyway…

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



I hadn't realised it was on the actual TV forecast as well. I saw the apps were out of whack.

UserPostedImage


Meanwhile in the real world definite signs of a warm up, Maybe high 20s by next weekend?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+2
shepherd
30 June 2023 11:38:26
Still looking very unsettled for the 1st half of July, certainly in the North.
johncs2016
30 June 2023 13:42:51
This coming weekend marks the start of the Edinburgh Trades Fortnight and according to the latest model output, the omens are not looking good there at all for anyone who is going to be on holiday during that period (that is better news  though, for those gardeners and growers who have been desperate for some rain).

That is such a shame when you consider that we had such a great start to this summer, but all of that is now looking just like another distant memory.😡


 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Downpour
30 June 2023 16:21:27

Looking at GFS and ECM this morning, the summary is a fairly cool first week in July with hints of something warmer (perhaps hot) in week 2. Later in week 2 GFS brings temperatures back down to near normal but that's a long way off. Wet in the north west, much drier in the south east. Fairly typical mid summer weather really which will suit Downpour (who revels in these situations 😉).

If it does cool down again mid month I can already see the headlines for July 19th:
Britain shivers in coolest summer for 3 years! Temperatures this day last year reached 40c and today is more than 20C (68F) [sic] cooler in many parts of the UK. 



 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Ha, true. Although I’m on holiday in Yorkshire next weekend so slightly nervous about rain quantities still!
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
30 June 2023 16:22:54

I hadn't realised it was on the actual TV forecast as well. I saw the apps were out of whack.

UserPostedImage


Meanwhile in the real world definite signs of a warm up, Maybe high 20s by next weekend?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



that is bonkers!! I didn’t realise that either!
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
30 June 2023 17:17:27
GEM 12z has high pressure completely back in charge by next weekend.  UKMO looks to be heading the same way. GFS still has the low coming back but its better than it has been. So not a bad set of 12s so far.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ghosts1
30 June 2023 18:55:42
ECM 12z is disgusting!
HighPressureGloom
30 June 2023 19:40:27

ECM 12z is disgusting!

Originally Posted by: Ghosts1 



Just Horrible. 
Let's hope the GEM 12z op which is hot even up north by next weekend is closer to reality.
 
Ally Pally Snowman
01 July 2023 08:02:33
Well the 0z ECM is much better . High pressure becoming dominant again by day 8. Hot in the South.  GEM similar. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Downpour
01 July 2023 08:06:27

Well the 0z ECM is much better . High pressure becoming dominant again by day 8. Hot in the South.  GEM similar. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Several runs have shown this resolution now, from various models. So, while unsettled remains the form horse, a drier, warmer evolution cannot be discounted. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
01 July 2023 08:14:54

Several runs have shown this resolution now, from various models. So, while unsettled remains the form horse, a drier, warmer evolution cannot be discounted. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Yes it's a growing theme but no guarantees yet.

The heat to the south especially on the ECM is brutal 30c+ 850s for Spain . If we do get a plume its going to get very hot here.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
01 July 2023 08:34:17

Yes it's a growing theme but no guarantees yet.

The heat to the south especially on the ECM is brutal 30c+ 850s for Spain . If we do get a plume its going to get very hot here.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Hope so while the daylight hours are at the near max, don't want any boring cold unsettled weather wasting this time of the year.  The brutal heat have to go somewhere at some point, that to the UK but if this going to happen I would like a proper rise to the hottest peak with many sunny days unlike last year July set up.
Retron
01 July 2023 10:58:11
The 6z GFS has one of the most remarkable early July forecasts (for my part of Kent) that I've ever seen - the odds of this coming off must be less than 0.1%.

UserPostedImage

It's all due to the little secondary low that zips across SE England, deepening as it goes. Genuine gales and 10C at 12z in July? Unheard of, I'd suggest, at least away from the tops of the Scottish mountains!
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Ghosts1
01 July 2023 11:16:36
00z ECM clusters are poor, pretty much low dominated right the way through. Op was an outlier.
Rob K
01 July 2023 11:17:09
The unsettled blip around the 5th shows up well on the GEFS. 

GEFS also show some support for a warmup around next weekend, and GEM and ECM both look pretty toasty by day 8-10
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
HighPressureGloom
01 July 2023 11:18:42
Really hope the GEM is right on the nose with next weekend, the last two runs have been remarkably similar with hot conditions all the way up to the north of Scotland.  
Hungry Tiger
01 July 2023 13:53:16

Really hope the GEM is right on the nose with next weekend, the last two runs have been remarkably similar with hot conditions all the way up to the north of Scotland.  

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 



I reckon this will verify.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bolty
01 July 2023 13:59:51

Really hope the GEM is right on the nose with next weekend, the last two runs have been remarkably similar with hot conditions all the way up to the north of Scotland.  

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 



I am too, but the GEM tends to be the least reliable of the three models, so I'm not holding my breath yet.

Still the GFS and ECM seem to be trending towards a general improvement in the weather by next weekend (that suits me as I'm off work the WC the 10th). Some runs seem to be hinting at bit of a Spanish plume situation too, so maybe some thundery potential too?
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Retron
01 July 2023 17:17:07

The 6z GFS has one of the most remarkable early July forecasts (for my part of Kent) that I've ever seen - the odds of this coming off must be less than 0.1%.

It's all due to the little secondary low that zips across SE England, deepening as it goes. Genuine gales and 10C at 12z in July? Unheard of, I'd suggest, at least away from the tops of the Scottish mountains!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


...and quelle surprise, the 12z run is just 10C warmer at the same time!  🤣

Normal service has been resumed. (And it's good to see this kind of stuff doesn't just happen in winter, with heavy snow "poofing" between runs...)
Leysdown, north Kent
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