theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2023 07:48:29
Still no definite way out of the unsettled mess we are currently in . Both ECM and GEM have high pressure building in from the south day 10 ish but no guarantees yet. GFS gets there about day 12. First 10 days of July looking average to poor atm.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
28 June 2023 07:51:12

Still no definite way out of the unsettled mess we are currently in . Both ECM and GEM have high pressure building in from the south day 10 ish but no guarantees yet. GFS gets there about day 12. First 10 days of July looking average to poor atm.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Down here it remains dry, but hopefully there will be some rain tomorrow (MetO has several hours, GFS has 3mm, which will poof in no time).

Some actual usable rain will be most welcome.
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
28 June 2023 07:55:05

Did it get smashed in or something?

As for the models, latest output shows the low making much less of a southwards inroad over the weekend, and kobe showing it anything like as deep. 

Fingers crossed. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



No my house when I brought had no patio doors to the garden only by side kitchen door so remove the window and the wall below to install it.    Need this trend to keep continuing to remove the Low out as it the most dangerous time if a Low get over UK, we have to wait minimum 6 weeks to get out of it. as it happened before when Low get stuck in UK minimum 6 weeks to few months wiping out the summer season out completely like in 2020 and 2021.  Any lows that enter the UK in summer is fraught with danger unlike in the 90's we know it move away fast and HP move in.

One colleague going to Lakes District in August so she also hoping a nice weather as well.
Jiries
28 June 2023 08:01:35

Still no definite way out of the unsettled mess we are currently in . Both ECM and GEM have high pressure building in from the south day 10 ish but no guarantees yet. GFS gets there about day 12. First 10 days of July looking average to poor atm.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I don't trust the models who stupidly pushing back 10 days nonsense because they predicted this week to be very poor, cold and wash out but turned out average week with little rain tonight then back to settled with sunny spells from tomorrow. The more push backs mean next week will continue to be nice again.  
Matty H
28 June 2023 08:30:35

I don't trust the models who stupidly pushing back 10 days nonsense because they predicted this week to be very poor, cold and wash out but turned out average week with little rain tonight then back to settled with sunny spells from tomorrow. The more push backs mean next week will continue to be nice again.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Tomorrow looks cack

Not sure we are all in an unsettled pattern. Not a drop of rain here for ages. Well over a week I think 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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Saint Snow
28 June 2023 08:31:11


As for the models, latest output shows the low making much less of a southwards inroad over the weekend, and none showing it anything like as deep. 

Fingers crossed. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




Slight flip-back this morning, with the low making more southwards progress. 

Martin
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Jiries
28 June 2023 08:41:33

Tomorrow looks cack

Not sure we are all in an unsettled pattern. Not a drop of rain here for ages. Well over a week I think 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Apps which often not reliable but kept improving it, recently apps was going for 24 hours rain daily from Tue onward so now only short few hours of light rain tonight and clear at dawn follow by sunny spells daily with average temps right up to Tue next week the latest show.  
Ghosts1
28 June 2023 08:48:21
Depends where you are in the country. We had 24hrs of solid rain in the NW yesterday and it's raining again today. It's very,very unsettled here Autumn like.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2023 09:02:54
ECM ensembles  actually look more optimistic with a temps and pressure rise around 8th July. 

Some genuinely hot runs in there. Let's hope they're onto something. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Downpour
28 June 2023 10:54:13
The 06z has this nailed. 

Heatwave next weekend as the low swirls around offshore to our NW bringing in warm conditions throughout England, with some hot values in the south. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2023 16:52:21
Shocking 12s so far . Very unsettled.  Extremely disappointing for high summer. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
28 June 2023 16:55:10

Shocking 12s so far . Very unsettled.  Extremely disappointing for high summer. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Ooh - that sounds exciting! We really do need rain down here.

Let's see what the 12z GFS has...

4mm tomorrow (signposted for a while). Another 3mm overnight into Saturday. And then possibly some showers in the early morning of next Wednesday.

Disappointing, frankly - I expected much more than a few poxy mm of rain, based on your description!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2023 17:27:27

Ooh - that sounds exciting! We really do need rain down here.

Let's see what the 12z GFS has...

4mm tomorrow (signposted for a while). Another 3mm overnight into Saturday. And then possibly some showers in the early morning of next Wednesday.

Disappointing, frankly - I expected much more than a few poxy mm of rain, based on your description!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Believe it or not it wasnt a solely Isle of Sheppey forecast. Lots of rain for the north and west. 


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
28 June 2023 17:53:20

Believe it or not it wasnt a solely Isle of Sheppey forecast. Lots of rain for the north and west.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Amazing, it was just a Bishop's Stortford forecast then. 😂

I'll acknowledge that there's a world outside my area if you do likewise... or, not so subtly, there are of course variations across this country of ours. I just happen to be in a bit which is far from "very unsettled" in the outlook, just as you live in a wetter area.
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2023 18:08:32

Amazing, it was just a Bishop's Stortford forecast then. 😂

I'll acknowledge that there's a world outside my area if you do likewise... or, not so subtly, there are of course variations across this country of ours. I just happen to be in a bit which is far from "very unsettled" in the outlook, just as you live in a wetter area.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I was expecting wetter actually for here. With the amount of low pressure in the run. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
28 June 2023 22:06:07

Believe it or not it wasnt a solely Isle of Sheppey forecast. Lots of rain for the north and west. 


 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



🤣🤣🤣
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
fairweather
28 June 2023 22:20:15

Ooh - that sounds exciting! We really do need rain down here.

Let's see what the 12z GFS has...

4mm tomorrow (signposted for a while). Another 3mm overnight into Saturday. And then possibly some showers in the early morning of next Wednesday.

Disappointing, frankly - I expected much more than a few poxy mm of rain, based on your description!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Can't even see that much here to be honest.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
28 June 2023 22:25:23

Can't even see that much here to be honest.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I'm quite conflicted with hot weather these days. I generally like it but now silly hot records have been broken I prefer mid 20's and blue sky and sunshine. Why anyone would enjoy temps over 27C let alone 30C is beyond me. Plus I am a keen gardener and have an allotment so do want a bit of rain now and again.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
Rob K
29 June 2023 10:29:45

I'm quite conflicted with hot weather these days. I generally like it but now silly hot records have been broken I prefer mid 20's and blue sky and sunshine. Why anyone would enjoy temps over 27C let alone 30C is beyond me. Plus I am a keen gardener and have an allotment so do want a bit of rain now and again.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I like hot weather mainly for the warm evenings when the sunset is so late at this time of year.

The tradeoff is it can be too hot to work - my new extension gets pretty warm, I did invest in a desk fan the other week.
Right now though it feels quite chilly with the window open although the thermostat reckons it is 22C in here.

Models look generally unsettled and LP dominated for the next 10-14 days. Let's hope GEFS run 30 on the 00Z is the trendsetter!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2023 10:49:29
GFS 6z is another absolute stinker. Low pressure like a Limpet stuck to the UK. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Chunky Pea
29 June 2023 10:58:30
I think it was around this time last year when hints of 40c being reached was coming into play.
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Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2023 11:09:50

I think it was around this time last year when hints of 40c being reached was coming into play.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Both GEM and ECM toying around with bringing some serious heat to the UK in about 10 days. Annoyingly the ECM ensembles don't seem to be updating atm. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
29 June 2023 13:20:26

Both GEM and ECM toying around with bringing some serious heat to the UK in about 10 days. Annoyingly the ECM ensembles don't seem to be updating atm. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



A dramatic improvement cannot be ruled out. Today is miles better than what was forecast just 2 days ago.
According to Hadley we're still on 17.0plus 17.1C

Hopefully we'll end on 17.0C depends on the adjustment.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Brian Gaze
29 June 2023 21:29:35
ECM has just had a big upgrade and there have been some changes to the data sets. However, updates are running again now.

Ensembles

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 

Deterministic

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
tierradelfuego
29 June 2023 21:36:31
Probably not the correct thread, but not sure where to post really. Hysterical BBC 10 o’clock news weather showing 8c max across the country. They did admit it was wrong of course, so obviously having a few issues. Amused me anyway…
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
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