theweatheroutlook

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idj20
09 March 2023 11:08:03
Monday looking like a distinctively Autumnal type of day for the southern portion of the UK while Scotland hangs onto Winter, but there are signs of things starting to settle down somewhat later on in the week - even if it isn't exactly a fast track to Spring proper with temperatures struggling to even reach normal values. All not really great news in terms of heating costs.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Chichesterweatherfan2
09 March 2023 12:25:28

No, it’s not in the slightest as that is not what my point was, so I guess you misunderstood. I could name the poster in question but most people know and I don’t want to draw further attention to them. It is one member who thinks the world revolves around their location and posts such parochial nonsense ad naseum. Everyone else seems to recognise the nuances and vagaries of snowfall in this country - the excitement, the anticipation, the frustration, the disappointment, it all goes with the territory as a weather fan. The dismissal of weather outside your backyard is the tedious nonsense that detracts from this thread. I’ve been watching with interest what has happened in the south and guess what, I don’t live there. I still think it’s important.

If you think my post was criticising people for being frustrated about not getting snow, it really isn’t and I frequently share that frustration.

Anyway back to what the models show and that is the potential for snow almost anywhere and lots of it somewhere (probably in the middle swathe of the country later tomorrow). The outlook is anything but dull even if it turns out to be frustrating.

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



totally agree, Michael, as a south coaster I understand all those emotions by the bucketload! And I am very much interested in snowy weather away from my locality and am enjoying snowy pictures from my niece in Sheffield…I love snow and as a south coaster I recognise I’ll often have to travel outside my immediate locality when work allows to experience the beauty of snow…All I’d say to posters in large parts of the south east, midlands, West Country,midlands, north, Scotland and N Ireland…on those v v rare occasions we get snow on the south coast, you’ll understand why our excitement sometimes seems a bit ott…As for disappointment, my motto is….never to expect snow here so that reduces the level of disappointment 😜😜..Anyway roll on some spring warmth and the end of cold rain! As for DP’s posts….😂😂😂😂
+1
Brian Gaze
09 March 2023 13:25:40
Just tidied up the thread a little. No personal jibes.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Saint Snow
09 March 2023 13:42:25

Just tidied up the thread a little. No personal jibes.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Pity. They were a nice distraction from another disappointing 'snow event'

🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
Gandalf The White
09 March 2023 14:10:30

Just tidied up the thread a little. No personal jibes.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Thank you, Brian.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bolty
09 March 2023 14:32:04
Won't happen obviously, but this would be nice from the GFS. A few adjustments and it would almost be an early Spanish plume. It wouldn't take much to bring the warmth across France to the UK, but that's just me clutching at straws. I'm off work that week too! 😁

UserPostedImage
The model does hint at things become more westerly and then south-westerly as next week progresses, which would bring milder, but much more unsettled weather than we've been used to of late. It would probably be the first time it's been properly unsettled widely since early January.

UserPostedImage
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
The Beast from the East
09 March 2023 18:20:31
No comments?
A fairly potent northerly blast for next week and GEM goes for an easterly, GFS tries
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
09 March 2023 18:59:41

No comments?
A fairly potent northerly blast for next week and GEM goes for an easterly, GFS tries
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



ECM is much milder hopefully its onto something.  Cold rain is no fun.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
09 March 2023 19:10:35
I think there might be room for manoeuvre to get one last chance into the far south (just to reiterate- I have not seen one flake of snow here in two years). Some of the output is playing with the idea of an easterly mid month which can deliver if the set up is just right.
In the meantime a fairly decent but brief northerly might be shaping up next week.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
09 March 2023 19:15:23

ECM is much milder hopefully its onto something.  Cold rain is no fun.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I hope it is too but in a more convincing form as it has minus double digits minima in the coming days up north and then again on Monday night and next Friday night. I’m trying to avoid looking at the smart meter.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
BJBlake
09 March 2023 20:09:56

I hope it is too but in a more convincing form as it has minus double digits minima in the coming days up north and then again on Monday night and next Friday night. I’m trying to avoid looking at the smart meter.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I’ve had two mornings with snow lying and today - some very heavy bouts of snow in showery form, with sleet between, but all much more exciting and meteorological interesting than anything that we’ve had this winter - bar that frosty spell, when there was but one flurry, but some amazing frost scenes.  It would have been nicer if it had been a couple of degrees colder, but these days, beggars cant be choosers. I still love to see snow falling. A shot of spring sun though is always welcome - when it comes.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
tallyho_83
09 March 2023 20:24:25
Interesting snow row spike for Exeter suddenly appearing for 11th March according the 12z GSF EnSs:

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DPower
09 March 2023 20:51:56
Never being on to say I told you so but unfortunately my analysis ( in conjunction with nwp model output) for this cold spell has been fairly correct. Yes the south has seen some transient snow/slush but any notable wintry weather saved for higher elevations and midlands north.  Even a little stronger Arctic push ( the main thrust went west under Greenland ) would have made all the difference in what we saw on the ground. The far, far reaches of gfs 12z control run shows what could be still possible even towards the end of March. 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 March 2023 08:24:55


WX summary still has N Europe including N Britain rather cold in week 1 with the coldest area Iceland to N Russia. In week 2 a modest retreat of the coldest weather N-wards; only S Spain looking to any degree warm. A brief warming around the Caspian disappears in week 2. Plentu of pptn from the Atlantic into France and N-wards to the Baltic in week 1, withdrawing W-wards in week 2 but still affecting france and Britain. Separate patch of disturbed weather in Turkey.

FAX shows the current LP pulling away fairly quickly E-wards, but after LP and associated fronts come in from the SW, once they're through the N-lies resume by Tue 14th with a couple of local depressios (polar lows?) embedded (998mb Scotland and E Iceland)

GFS Op - current LP to Poland by tomorrow, new LP off W Scotland 975mb Mon with SW-lies, deepens and drags in N-lies on its back edge as it moves to Denmark Wed 15th. Then a quieter period with mostly SW-lies and shallow LP around until one centre deepens 985mb N Ireland Wed 22nd and re-loads N-lies briefly before HP asserts itself Sun 26th 1025mb just W of Ireland

ECM - similar to GFS until Sat 18th when the shallow LP area departs S-wards, deepening, to the Balearics while a ridge of HP 1035mb is established Scotland - Baltic and E-lies for England.

GEFS - temps moving sharply, quite widely 6 C below norm Sat, 5C above Mon 13th, back to 6C below Wed 15th, after which the majority of ens members settle close to norm. Some quite heavy rain intermittently (heaviest around Mon 13th in N, 17th in S) until Tue 21st, then drying up somewhat. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
10 March 2023 12:01:12
Lovely Spring run from the GFS 6z.  No consistency atm though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Crepuscular Ray
10 March 2023 17:52:30
Apart from this Sunday and Monday the GFS 12z keeps Scotland cold until the 26th!
Quite cold in the rest of the UK too 🥶
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
nsrobins
10 March 2023 17:56:57

Apart from this Sunday and Monday the GFS 12z keeps Scotland cold until the 26th!
Quite cold in the rest of the UK too 🥶

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


It can do one - had enough of just cold rain (mostly mild rain) watching virtually the rest of the UK get at least a snowflake.
(IMBY moaning old fart mode off).
😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
10 March 2023 18:31:12
I agree Neil, the majority of the output has us wild northerners stuck in this early spring cold for much of the current outlook with the exception of a brief probably soggy period around this weekend. The GFS 12z op run is frankly a bit depressing and the ECM 12z so far is not much better.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
10 March 2023 19:06:01
GEM hopefully a trend setter.
Yes, I am not yet ready for spring. 
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
dagspot
10 March 2023 19:17:16
BBC Scotland going for a cold week ahead with significant bouts of further snow… better now than not getting any! 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
10 March 2023 19:39:37
ECM 12z  please . I'm definitely in the wanting Spring camp. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
The Beast from the East
10 March 2023 23:33:26
Pub run gives an easterly. GEM was first to pick this up. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
UncleAlbert
11 March 2023 01:28:08

Never being on to say I told you so but unfortunately my analysis ( in conjunction with nwp model output) for this cold spell has been fairly correct. Yes the south has seen some transient snow/slush but any notable wintry weather saved for higher elevations and midlands north.  Even a little stronger Arctic push ( the main thrust went west under Greenland ) would have made all the difference in what we saw on the ground. The far, far reaches of gfs 12z control run shows what could be still possible even towards the end of March. 
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



It was always that short wave moving south last Monday that was going to scupper it for the south.  Cold air could not get fully established before the disruptive wave arrived.  Fairly sure that would not have happened in the past for that kind of set up.  Going forwards there is a significant number of members (towards 20%) below -5 on the ECM ens 850s past day 10.  Always think that when these are almost exclusively flat lining gives  proportionally extra weight   As we have seen for some in the last few days Spring wintryness though usually transient can be quite spectacular and disruptive for it's duration.
tallyho_83
11 March 2023 01:49:53

Never being on to say I told you so but unfortunately my analysis ( in conjunction with nwp model output) for this cold spell has been fairly correct. Yes the south has seen some transient snow/slush but any notable wintry weather saved for higher elevations and midlands north.  Even a little stronger Arctic push ( the main thrust went west under Greenland ) would have made all the difference in what we saw on the ground. The far, far reaches of gfs 12z control run shows what could be still possible even towards the end of March. 
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



I agree and also this reversal of zonal flow may have been too strong in the sense that it caused the blocking retrogress too north westwards to west of Greenland on Canadian side which allowed milder airflow into the south and the true Arctic cold never really reached the far south and any snow was transient in nature and or didn't settle. If the blocking held on and stuck around Greenland or Iceland for a little longer to allow the colder Arctic airflow to sink further south for longer then we could have been in business. Also it is March so no surprise but still nice to see some eventful weather after a month or so of nothingness and looks like early to mid next week we could see another push of colder weather.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jiries
11 March 2023 07:01:01

I agree and also this reversal of zonal flow may have been too strong in the sense that it caused the blocking retrogress too north westwards to west of Greenland on Canadian side which allowed milder airflow into the south and the true Arctic cold never really reached the far south and any snow was transient in nature and or didn't settle. If the blocking held on and stuck around Greenland or Iceland for a little longer to allow the colder Arctic airflow to sink further south for longer then we could have been in business. Also it is March so no surprise but still nice to see some eventful weather after a month or so of nothingness and looks like early to mid next week we could see another push of colder weather.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Hope 2nd half to see spring like conditions for the heating reduce usage as it currently £5 higher up to 10th from corresponding last month. Hope Sunday at 13C here with sunshine to have heating free day or use very short time. Next early week charts show clean northerly or NW mean more sunny weather to keep indoor warmer.

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