That low over Iceland at t+180 looks like it begins to disrupt against the strengthening block to its east.
How do you rate the chances of the low disrupting fully and throwing energy SSE'wards over the UK? And would I be right in thinking that, in such a scenario, the low would drag cold southwards along with a trailing front of snow?
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
I'd rate it a bit higher now the 12z GFS is coming out! 😄
In all seriousness, I'd say that's a low chance at the moment (the full disruption thing), but at the moment 24 hours is a long time in model-watching. It's clear that even small changes upstream make a massive difference in our neck of the woods, and I doubt anyone could confidently predict the situation on say Monday. At the moment I'd say a ridge following on (as per MetO and GFS) is more likely, pushing the low SE'wards over us, rather than the low being shoved away by heights to the east, but again - you can't be confident in either of those really.
As for a disrupting low moving close to the UK with snow on the boundary... as ever it depends on how cold the air is ahead of the front, whether it's just a thin boundary layer of cold air or whether it's deeper, the exact angle of attack (we always want to see fronts running more east-west than north-south in a battleground)... all sorts of things. It's something that the models will struggle with even 12 hours out.
Heck, just look at Sunday's potential snow "up north" to see how hard it all is - could be rain, could be a bit of wet snow for Wales and the NW of England, could all be a bit further south and stay dry up there.
It's at times like this you realise just how hard it is for the models to, well, model the situation!