theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
01 December 2023 23:17:46
Interesting run from GFS op not sure I have ever seen a high that big!
Gandalf The White
02 December 2023 00:11:17
On the GFS 18z at T+240 about a third of the members have a blocking high to the north or north east, a couple just too far away to control our weather.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


UncleAlbert
02 December 2023 00:16:17

Interesting run from GFS op not sure I have ever seen a high that big!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Well it is Friday night and it is the pub run.  But that tendency for blocking to the east does seem to be a little more than just noise.  And what are those long eared owls thinking!
BJBlake
02 December 2023 00:34:46

Well it is Friday night and it is the pub run.  But that tendency for blocking to the east does seem to be a little more than just noise.  And what are those long eared owls thinking!

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



Russian short-eared owls sighted along the east coast: first snow has fallen last night here - albeit a dusting, a snowy potential breakdown and a good possibility of a cold mid December - after a brief milder spell. It doesn’t come a lot better for a coldies who are also weather model addicts... I am loving this winter so far. Recent days have been a great example of cold pooling or embedding - with low solar radiation and long cold nights. Can’t wait to see the next run!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
tallyho_83
02 December 2023 00:52:33

Met office offers a little intrigue for late December:

”…colder interludes, but these likely to be short lived at first. Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period.”

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


In line with the ECM 12z @240z? Did anyone see it? unless it's been discussed?

BiG HP system western Russia end of this evenings 12z ECM run forcing LP to slide south:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

I guess this is why we look at Russian/Siberian and Scandinavian snow cover? More snow cover earlier in season = more chances of blocking over these areas? Am I correct?
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


White Meadows
02 December 2023 04:20:04

Why do you feel the need to keep doing this?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Discussing the output? Challenging opinions? Shall we all just keep agreeing like nodding dogs and wait to jump in the next post suggesting an outlier exists? 
Sorry but you need to be a little less cryptic Peter. 
White Meadows
02 December 2023 04:29:04

In line with the ECM 12z @240z? Did anyone see it? unless it's been discussed?

BiG HP system western Russia end of this evenings 12z ECM run forcing LP to slide south:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

I guess this is why we look at Russian/Siberian and Scandinavian snow cover? More snow cover earlier in season = more chances of blocking over these areas? Am I correct?
 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



More snow means more energy reflects back to space, resulting in cooling. Not too sure about a direct relationship between snow cover and sea level pressure however. 
 
CField
02 December 2023 05:21:32
Looking all very 2006 to me...a strong Siberian high Scandinavia Eastern Europe in the freezer while the UK never loses the influence of heights to the South West....Great for 5 degree C low cloud lovers!
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+1
doctormog
02 December 2023 06:15:44

Looking all very 2006 to me...a strong Siberian high Scandinavia Eastern Europe in the freezer while the UK never loses the influence of heights to the South West....Great for 5 degree C low cloud lovers!

Originally Posted by: CField 



Are you sure you mean 2006? I have just had a look through the Dec 2006 charts and the synoptics are dominated by a Euro high and prevailing SWlies for the U.K. and Scandinavia? This is today’s equivalent chart back in 2006 , but that general pattern persisted for some time.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2023 06:55:57
A case of close but no cigar this morning.  The block isn't quite strong enough to hold off the Atlantic onslaught.  Maybe later in the month. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
CField
02 December 2023 06:57:02
It was feb 2006...there was extremely cold block to east....i remember snow shoeers were forcast widespread for UK but heights to sw had too much influence and a near miss occured...Moscow had record low temps....pr was it 2007?

Are you sure you mean 2006? I have just had a look through the Dec 2006 charts and the synoptics are dominated by a Euro high and prevailing SWlies for the U.K. and Scandinavia? This is today’s equivalent chart back in 2006 , but that general pattern persisted for some time.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
BJBlake
02 December 2023 07:20:44
The FI Scandi high has melted away from the GFS op this morning like the proverbial Snowman,  with 7/32 pert’s still inflating some sort of blocking high, and none of them are  either the control or op, which indicates to me the chance of a repeat mid-winter cold snap has reduced a little. The can may have been pushed down the road,however, because FI still ends with a southerly push - which reaches past Svalbard, which raises pressure heights over Scandinavia - but then it requires a favourable (southerly) jet stream configuration for that to influence our weather. We’ll see in further runs if there is waxing or waning potential for this of course.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
ballamar
02 December 2023 07:39:10
Step away from any decent winter setup today - wouldn’t be fun if guaranteed!
doctormog
02 December 2023 07:44:12
Surely the 00z output isn’t more progressive than yesterday’s 12z equivalent again? 😇 

More seriously though the ensemble data are pretty consistent with previous sets. Cold in the coming few days trending to average but still with a large level of uncertainty beyond around the 6th.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
02 December 2023 07:58:26

Surely the 00z output isn’t more progressive than yesterday’s 12z equivalent again? 😇 

More seriously though the ensemble data are pretty consistent with previous sets. Cold in the coming few days trending to average but still with a large level of uncertainty beyond around the 6th.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Yeh a bunch of ensembles showing the cold hanging on.

Until this is resolved, the game is still afoot.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 December 2023 08:17:51
Late yesterday it looked as if there would be stormy weather heading for Britain from the Atlantic; still there, but scaled back in terms of penetration E-wards, probably more emphasis on rain rather  than wind.

WX summary - a continuing retreat of cold weather from NW Europe, the serious cold by week 2 back in Russia and also less intense there. Britain and the Med becoming average for the time of year rather than really mild. Pptn forecast continuing recent trends with areas on Atlantic coasts and in the Adriatic/Aegean loosely linked in week1, dividing into distinct areas in week 2 with the Atlantic pulling back somewhat (still affecting Britain, though) and the Aegean patch moving on to Turkey.

JET - continuing to run S of Britain, with tendency to approach the SW before dipping SE-wards; particularly strong around Sat 9th before breaking up into weaker loops but back in full strength Mon 18th

GFS Op - weak N-lies for the weekend then LP traverses the S 995mb English Channel Mon 4th (not linked to any really cold air so probably wet snow at best), filling, before deeper LP 950mb SW Ireland Wed 6th filling rapidly as it moves east. Next LP is 965mb N Ireland Sun 10th, again filling quickly but this time running NE-wards. Then HP over or to E of Britain producing S-ly gales with long fetch from the SW before a final LP 955mb Mon 18th disrupts this.

ECM - similar to GFS;  but later on, LP Sun 10th is only 980mb and slower to clear NE-wards.

GEFS - as yesterday, temps back to norm by Thu 7th (though a brief a milder and wetter day in the S early next week)  then mean remains close to norm through to Mon 18th, with the more common variations form the ensemble pack being on the cool side at first and on the mild side later. Plenty of rain about, tending to coincide with LPs outlined above but not exclusively so, Wettest in the west, snow row figures quite low even in the Highlands after the next couple of days
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 08:53:15
Surely these are suggesting that flooding and strong winds are more likely to be concerns in the run up to Christmas rather than cold? 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
johncs2016
02 December 2023 09:05:12

Surely these are suggesting that flooding and strong winds are more likely to be concerns in the run up to Christmas rather than cold? 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The ensembles for Edinburgh also show a similar increase in both the temperature and precipitation in the runup to Christmas, although that has the current cold spell lasting a bit longer until around 7 December.

I guess that once this cold spell is out of the way, that could then be "it" for our "winter", and it wouldn't even surprise me one single bit if that ended up being the case, given the nature of our weather here in the UK.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
David M Porter
02 December 2023 09:34:06

Are you sure you mean 2006? I have just had a look through the Dec 2006 charts and the synoptics are dominated by a Euro high and prevailing SWlies for the U.K. and Scandinavia? This is today’s equivalent chart back in 2006 , but that general pattern persisted for some time.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



I think it might have been December 2005 that CField was thinking of. There is a link to the chart for 2nd December 2005 below and, to my eyes anyway, the set-up in early December '05 was much closer to the set-up we have now than the one that was place the same time the following year.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2005/cfsr/CFSR_1_2005120200_1.png 
 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Rob K
02 December 2023 09:36:17

Surely these are suggesting that flooding and strong winds are more likely to be concerns in the run up to Christmas rather than cold? 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I can’t see much evidence of flooding risk on that chart, the mean precipitation line suggests very small amounts and even the bigger spikes only seem to show isolated moderate spells of rain?

I do agree though that the risk of sustained cold seems to have lessened. As others have suggested, the 0Z runs often seem to “reset” back to a more progressive picture after hunts of blocking through the day. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
02 December 2023 10:33:10
Age old problem of heights not dropping over Europe!
Rob K
02 December 2023 11:01:56
6Z GFS control run looks to be taking a rather different route from the operational, with significant trough disruption at T168.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 11:28:15

I can’t see much evidence of flooding risk on that chart, the mean precipitation line suggests very small amounts and even the bigger spikes only seem to show isolated moderate spells of rain?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I didn't specifically mean in the London area. My point was the ground is probably still saturated in large parts of the UK and the models are increasingly suggesting wet and windy periods in the approach to Christmas. Some of the GEFS perts have been showing very high wind speeds recently. With blocking to the east it is very possible that Atlantic disturbances will become slow moving close to the UK and drop large amounts of rain. High ground in the north could see significant snow of course. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
02 December 2023 11:33:01
GEFS 06Z looks fairly decisive as far as the south is concerned. The question now is surely turning to whether the late autumn kerfuffle is over and BAU is resuming for the winter. Or not? It's worth remembering that most of the colder winter in the late 70s and 80s didn't get going until after Christmas. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
02 December 2023 11:36:58

It was feb 2006...there was extremely cold block to east....i remember snow shoeers were forcast widespread for UK but heights to sw had too much influence and a near miss occured...Moscow had record low temps....pr was it 2007?

Originally Posted by: CField 



Late Feb 06 and into March was characterised by a GH and cold northerlies. We were bone dry here but North Wales got frequent heavy snow showers. Might also have been an appearance of the Pembrokeshire Dangler! I think further S/SE it was less cold.

Anyway, when the flow changed to a more NW'ly, we unexpectedly got under a streamer and I woke to 10cm of snow first Sunday morning in March.

Cold continued through the week with a big front moving in from the west. We were lined up for a great fall on the following Sunday morning, but the block held slightly too strongly and the ppn band halted just as it reached the Merseyside coast. We got about 2cm from light snow.

We had friends who (against my advice) had taken their caravan to near Windermere. They woke, opened the caravan door to let their Scottie dog out, and the snow was level with the bottom of the door. Before they could react, the dog bolted out... and disappeared into the snow. They had to leave the caravan there and drive home without it (collected it the following week after the thaw, a week's pitch charge lighter.

I know the Western Scotland contingent here will remember that fall. Another friend of mine who was living in Dunblane at the time measured 50cm level snow.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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