WX temp summary has resumed its prediction of a retreat of cold air back towards the east. Week 1 has W Europe with temps not far from norm for the time of year, ranging from above in Spain to just below in Poland, and then in week 2 the area which is freezing pulls back well into Russia and the ultra-freezing virtually disappears to the far NE i.e. Siberia. Rain near the Atlantic week 1, heaviest around Britain, in week 2 moving to the NE with the wet area in the N Sea and from there extending to Baltic.
GFS Op - the HP block over Russia reaches its apogee Mon 11th, 1060mb, preventing LPs penetrating far into the Continent until then but then fades SE-wards with LPs moving ever further E-wards. For Britain this means current LP gets to Kent 1000mb Tue 5th, filling, then 970mb Clyde Fri 8th moving NE-wards, 980mb Orkney Mon 11th getting to the Baltic with N-lies behind, finally Britain is under W/NW-lies as the controlling LP 990mb becomes fixed in the Baltic Sun 17th. Prospects of cold weather for Christmas enhanced by secondary LPs in the latter's circulation with a blast from the NE on (FI) Wed 20th.
ECM - similar to GFS at first; the LP Mon 11th sticks over Britain as it fills becoming 1005mb N Sea Thu 14th.
GEFS - alternating milder (5th, 8th, 10th) and cooler, variation most visible in the S, while the far N simply becomes less cold around the 8th, all with good ens agreement, then mean close to norm but with increasing disagreement between individual runs to the point of meaninglessness by Wed 20th. Wet to Mon 11th, somewhat drier after that.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl