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Quantum
05 December 2023 11:32:41

Starting to feel the enthusiasm drain away. Of course it’s not wise to say Winter is over. But I’ve seen this script before.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Which would be a bit silly for the first week of December. I've already seen as much snow in those first few days than the entire winter last year. Look at my sig, its not an exggeration.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
05 December 2023 11:42:28

Starting to feel the enthusiasm drain away. Of course it’s not wise to say Winter is over. But I’ve seen this script before.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



To quote from Lawrence of Arabia, “Nothing is written”.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2023 11:58:53

John Hammond on LBC radio this morning remarked that the second half of the month could turn drier and somewhat colder and implied  large areas of Europe are experiencing exceptional cold and this may impact our climate moving forward? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Have respect for Hammond, that would appear to be a massive ramp.

I've just seen the clip on GB News and he did seem fairly confident that cold air could return later in December. His latest tweet though suggests signs for December remain elusive. So who knows.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
05 December 2023 12:09:36

”… is that a jet stream I see before me, its core towards these shores?….”

He was indeed… 😉

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 




"Where for art thou, Greenland High?"

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Gandalf The White
05 December 2023 12:28:09

"Where for art thou, Greenland High?"

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



”A Scandi High, a Scandi High, my kingdom for a Scandi High…”

😊
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
05 December 2023 12:51:42

Which would be a bit silly for the first week of December. I've already seen as much snow in those first few days than the entire winter last year. Look at my sig, its not an exggeration.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



I saw as much snow as the previous four winters last year on the 11th December. The rest of the winter was a let down. I had high hopes and it didn’t deliver after that.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
CField
05 December 2023 13:14:50
Be nice just to get a cold snap in January...last time saw snow falling in January was 2013 and I'm sure that was preceded by the usual zonal set up....think Brian might be on the money with a cold February...one like 78 would be nice...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Retron
05 December 2023 13:19:13

Be nice just to get a cold snap in January...last time saw snow falling in January was 2013 and I'm sure that was preceded by the usual zonal set up....think Brian might be on the money with a cold February...one like 78 would be nice...

Originally Posted by: CField 


We're well overdue a snowy January, 2013 was the last time there was a January cover of snow here (and 2010 before that). It's not as overdue as a proper White Christmas, though (1970 being the last one here) - not long until the big day comes into view on the 15-day ensembles...
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
05 December 2023 15:33:41
Is this a old-school easterly which I see before me,
The CAA toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee.
I have thee not, and yet on my screen I see thee still
Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible
To feeling as to sight? or art thou but
A dagger of the mind, a false creation,
Proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?

That's me doing my best Lady Macbeth every winter since 1997!
(must be a slow model day lol)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+3
Gandalf The White
05 December 2023 16:30:30

Is this a old-school easterly which I see before me,
The CAA toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee.
I have thee not, and yet on my screen I see thee still
Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible
To feeling as to sight? or art thou but
A dagger of the mind, a false creation,
Proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?

That's me doing my best Lady Macbeth every winter since 1997!
(must be a slow model day lol)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Very good, Neil.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
05 December 2023 16:36:00
12z interesting at 250hrs
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
05 December 2023 16:39:25
Not much cold around to tap into, but I do sometimes thing a MLB can work out well if things full into place
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
David M Porter
05 December 2023 16:43:15

Not much cold around to tap into, but I do don’t sometimes a MLB can work out well if things full
into place

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



IIRC, we had a MLB in place for a week or so before the start of the month-long freeze in December 2009.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Heavy Weather 2013
05 December 2023 16:46:42

IIRC, we had a MLB in place for a week or so before the start of the month-long freeze in December 2009.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yes, I remember that well. I just re read what I wrote, I always make so many errors when typing on my phone lol
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2023 18:12:14

Not much cause for excitement on this morning's runs. 

Bit until the Met Office remove the line "Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period" from their long-ranger I am not giving up hope of a seasonal Xmas period.

(So, this afternoon then!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Well they haven't completely got rid of it but a bit of a backtrack.  "Later in December increased chance of cold but more likely mild".
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
05 December 2023 18:48:47

Well they haven't completely got rid of it but a bit of a backtrack.  "Later in December increased chance of cold but more likely mild".
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



😪

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
David M Porter
05 December 2023 19:04:01

Well they haven't completely got rid of it but a bit of a backtrack.  "Later in December increased chance of cold but more likely mild".
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



To me, that is largely the same thing as they said before, only worded differently. The wording they used previously was "Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period." The use of the word "perhaps" didn't suggest to me that they are/were especially confident re another cold spell later on this month, especially when that is so far away in forecasting terms.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2023 19:45:33

To me, that is largely the same thing as they said before, only worded differently. The wording they used previously was "Perhaps a greater chance of a longer cold spell late in the period." The use of the word "perhaps" didn't suggest to me that they are/were especially confident on another cold spell later on this month, especially when that is so far away in forecasting terms.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yes perhaps, don't think we need to worry to much as these monthly forecasts are pretty poor normally.  They didn't see the cold spell just gone until about a week out if that.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jive Buddy
05 December 2023 21:11:41

Is this a old-school easterly which I see before me,
The CAA toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee.
I have thee not, and yet on my screen I see thee still
Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible
To feeling as to sight? or art thou but
A dagger of the mind, a false creation,
Proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?

That's me doing my best Lady Macbeth every winter since 1997!
(must be a slow model day lol)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I think you'd better go home mate, you're pissed! 😉
It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
+1
Brian Gaze
05 December 2023 21:28:27
I don't see any change this evening. GEFS and ECM ENS 12Z updates both look quite poor. That means we're left with teleconnections or analogues if either are your thing. Also, the fact that often winter bites after Christmas rather than before. With all that said, the reality is we can barely string 2 months out of 3 below CET in recent years. Therefore, why the hell would anyone realistically expect a cold winter if they're playing the percentage game. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DPower
05 December 2023 22:32:27
Surprised no one has posted the ec seasonal  update. Jan about as good as you could get from a cold and snowy prospective.
https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2023_12/image.png.a4816d31fe6e3b36af77edbfd5db2808.png 
With December, February and March looking cold and blocked also.


 
Rob K
05 December 2023 22:38:31
And only 744 hours away 😇
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DPower
05 December 2023 22:56:49
EC 46 sub seasonal also on the January band wagon. 
Rather have them on board than not. Have not seen a mid winter profile for UK and Europe like that since I don't know when.
 
Heavy Weather 2013
06 December 2023 06:36:59
The PV is stuck between Canada and Greenland. MLB seems to be growing, but the block can’t see to move much. No man’s land seems to be the order of the day at the moment - perhaps that’s not a bad thing 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Jiries
06 December 2023 07:00:10

The PV is stuck between Canada and Greenland. MLB seems to be growing, but the block can’t see to move much. No man’s land seems to be the order of the day at the moment - perhaps that’s not a bad thing 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



No man land is worst weather pattern that prevent summery weather or snowy weather because lows get stuck in situ that block anything interesting weather like the last few days cold rain and dull than active zonal flow like last month lot of sunny days.  We had bad summer especially in July due to stuck pattern that prevented summer from entering.   I am looking forward to zonal flow coming in with 10 to 11C days and seeing sun in between.
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