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Downpour
08 December 2023 11:11:56
Interesting if not very interesting - even for the populous SE quadrant of the UK -  as we approach the first day of winter on 21 December. Probably the best run-in we have had to the festive period for a while.

More runs needed, as the old cliche has it. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
08 December 2023 11:18:40
Decent op run just goes wrong for cold for Xmas. Keeps the interest up though
Gandalf The White
08 December 2023 11:22:59

Decent op run just goes wrong for cold for Xmas. Keeps the interest up though

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Yes, as soon as the HP doesn’t retrogress, and the jet stream coming across the US tilts towards the NE, the doors are opened again to a more westerly flow.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


CField
08 December 2023 12:26:33

Yes, as soon as the HP doesn’t retrogress, and the jet stream coming across the US tilts towards the NE, the doors are opened again to a more westerly flow.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

slider for Xmas?
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
08 December 2023 13:26:12

slider for Xmas?

Originally Posted by: CField 



The control has a slider, running down to the west of Ireland.  Several of the perturbations deliver a cold northerly flow.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
08 December 2023 15:10:15
Ensembles are becoming interesting. Well defined cluster now showing retrogression of HP to greenland in the week before xmas.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Tractor Boy
08 December 2023 16:41:27
12z going the same way as the 06z it would seem.
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Heavy Weather 2013
08 December 2023 18:15:06
The ‘bore’ high is looking very likely, but it’s actually a second high coming out of Canada that helps to pull the high west. It’s then we will need to see the PV drop and the high retrogress. 20th onwards seems to be the marker  in the sand. 

On another note I’ve noticed a trend for a day or two of lower 850s mid week next week. Then faux cold will hopefully be order of the day before the real fun and games begin. So many fun scenarios in FI. 

Another eye brow raised this evening. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
08 December 2023 18:34:43
I dare not dream...
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
08 December 2023 19:19:36

I dare not dream...
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Looking at the postage stamps I think it’s wise not to dream yet, too many evolutions and few of them are particularly favourable, with very little blocking to our west/north-west.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
08 December 2023 19:37:48
ECM ENS 50 + Control from today's 00Z are in the Tweet. I should have on TWO this weekend and will try to post this evening's 12Z when available.



 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
jhall
08 December 2023 20:07:12

The ‘bore’ high is looking very likely, but it’s actually a second high coming out of Canada that helps to pull the high west. It’s then we will need to see the PV drop and the high retrogress. 20th onwards seems to be the marker  in the sand. 

On another note I’ve noticed a trend for a day or two of lower 850s mid week next week. Then faux cold will hopefully be order of the day before the real fun and games begin. So many fun scenarios in FI. 

Another eye brow raised this evening. 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


What will you do if you run out of eyebrows? 🙂
Cranleigh, Surrey
+1
Saint Snow
08 December 2023 20:12:09

ECM ENS 50 + Control from today's 00Z are in the Tweet. I should have on TWO this weekend and will try to post this evening's 12Z when available.



 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Some lovely charts there!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
08 December 2023 20:20:20
Potential for a northerly blast after something of a UK high scenario before Christmas. Then the form horse is a return to wet & wild. Met office seems to favour this outcome although not totally ruling out a cold spell towards new year. Way too far ahead of course to draw conclusions but the current ‘noise’ might be representative of a post Christmas freeze. 
Gandalf The White
08 December 2023 21:07:00

Some lovely charts there!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



But they’re in quite a small minority; certainly no strong signal for high latitude blocking at this stage.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 December 2023 21:12:37
I've gone back a few pages and moved such posts as were mostly reminiscence to the Christmas/December weather memories as requested and IMO too, best to keep memories separate from model outputs. Please keep this thread for current model output, referring to previous years only insofar as they have relevance to this year.

New posts which are just reminiscence will get moved too.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
08 December 2023 21:37:11

What will you do if you run out of eyebrows? 🙂

Originally Posted by: jhall 


I think meteorological eyebrow raising is a temporary state.
One can, if necessary, raise the same eyebrow multiple times (say every six hours) a day.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Brian Gaze
08 December 2023 21:37:15
ECM ENS 12Z stamps for t+354 hours are here.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
08 December 2023 22:58:41
Less favourable ridging on this op run
Gandalf The White
09 December 2023 00:20:15

Less favourable ridging on this op run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



It’s been a growing trend in the ensembles for the pattern to flatten out.  Still two weeks away, so it is bound to change a few more times yet.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Retron
09 December 2023 04:53:37
There's been a definite shift southwards in our upcoming high - putting it in a position which will waft mild air aloft over the whole of the UK, with some unpleasantly wet and windy weather increasingly likely for Scotland/NI and northern parts of England.

There is one positive from this, though, in that it means the cold doesn't drain away from Scandinavia as much as had been forecast: it's always handy to have a pool of cold air close by in that direction!

The 0z GFS is easy on the eyes, as a Canadian high effortlessly absorbs our displaces Azores High, bringing a cold plunge for the UK. Confidence has to be low, though, as the amplification of the pattern varies wildly from run to run at the moment.
Leysdown, north Kent
CField
09 December 2023 05:30:50
First time on this evolving cold spell of the messy flabby bit of easterly setting up. Getting more and more of this type of set up than the full blown blasts (north or east)of the past.If previous form does reoccur is this now considered a more modern era set up for the cold elusive UK?
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Heavy Weather 2013
09 December 2023 07:15:29

There's been a definite shift southwards in our upcoming high - putting it in a position which will waft mild air aloft over the whole of the UK, with some unpleasantly wet and windy weather increasingly likely for Scotland/NI and northern parts of England.

There is one positive from this, though, in that it means the cold doesn't drain away from Scandinavia as much as had been forecast: it's always handy to have a pool of cold air close by in that direction!

The 0z GFS is easy on the eyes, as a Canadian high effortlessly absorbs our displaces Azores High, bringing a cold plunge for the UK. Confidence has to be low, though, as the amplification of the pattern varies wildly from run to run at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



P23 was fun as well. Gets everything in much earlier and stays cold. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 December 2023 07:45:10
WX temp charts continue with the retreat of cold air back to Russia. NW Europe is quite mild in week 1 but cooler in week 2; SE Europe is quite cold in week 1 but there is a distinct push of warmth from the SE in week 2. Most of continental Europe is wet in week 1 (excepting Scandinavia and Mediterranean coasts); in week 2 there is some rain around the N Sea and rather more around the Adriatic.

GFS Op - sequence of LPs crossing Britain over the next few days mostly at 980mb (midday today SW Scotland, tomorrow N Ireland, Tue 12th Wales) before HP moves in from the SW and established 1040mb S England Fri 15th. From there it retrogresses to mid-Atlantic with gale-force N-lies Tue 19th - Thu 21st before setting up a ridge over Scotland to Norway but leaving a cold pool over the Channel Sat 23rd.

ECM - Slightly different timing for the LPs crossing Britain (i.e. +/- 12 hours) and then the HP, having got established, shows no sign of retrogressing and is still 1035mb S England Tue 19th.

GEFS - episodes of rain until Wed 13th  becoming drier earlier in NE, then mostly dry through to Christmas Day except NW Scotland. Temp near norm now, then oscillating, cool Fri 15th, mild or v mild Mon 18th, dropping sharply the day after which the ens members no longer agree - by Dec 25th in the S op is 6C below norm and control 6C above but less variation in the N

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
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