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nsrobins
06 February 2024 16:50:43

The 12z GFS totally does away with the SH -> GH thing

I'm shocked, I tell ya!

🤣

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Everythings going to be fine because we have a  full extra day of winter this year 😂😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
warrenb
06 February 2024 16:51:50
Can we please put the straws away, it is getting boring. It will turn back to average over the comings days and that is that. Guess what, it snows on hills, whozzers would never have thought that
Tonbridge 45m 
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2024 16:54:12
The GFS 12z is very Spring like.  We'd be on for a CET record if it verified. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Quantum
06 February 2024 16:56:40

Can we please put the straws away, it is getting boring. It will turn back to average over the comings days and that is that. Guess what, it snows on hills, whozzers would never have thought that

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



The 15Z ICON is legitimately alot further south, looks very similar to the 6Z. Not over yet.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
06 February 2024 16:58:28

The 15Z ICON is legitimately alot further south, looks very similar to the 6Z. Not over yet.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You are correct, it is not over yet, because it's not even going to start. Even the Meto deep dive points out their own model shows very little snow before it warms up, and then goes on to waste 10 minutes talking about ECM model instead.
Tonbridge 45m 
+1
David M Porter
06 February 2024 17:00:01

Couldn't be more different Gfs GEM 12z runs....bordering farcical....

Originally Posted by: CField 



It's probably an understatement to say that GFS seems to be all over the place at the moment.

Unless/until it has back-up from the other models on a consistent basis, I'll take what it shows with a rather large dose of salt.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
fairweather
06 February 2024 17:11:59

It's probably an understatement to say that GFS seems to be all over the place at the moment.

Unless/until it has back-up from the other models on a consistent basis, I'll take what it shows with a rather large dose of salt.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


............ unless it shows snow of course 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
Rob K
06 February 2024 17:18:10
Looking at the 12Z GEFS it seems to have removed all of the cold cluster of runs in the shorter term.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
06 February 2024 17:22:09

again another wintry met medium and long range.

no idea what charts they are looking at, im guessing if the wind ever comes around from the N.E for 5 mins, they can claim victory
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



The 12z GEM, possibly?
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
06 February 2024 17:24:54

Indeed the 12s are a million miles away from the 15 day update. Something has to give soon.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not the GEM 12z, as noted above.

The UKMO 12z looks not bad at the end too in that it shows HP building to the east, although we can't be sure what would develop beyond 168hrs.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2024 17:28:58

Not the GEM 12z, as noted above.

The UKMO 12z looks not bad at the end too in that it shows HP building to the east, although we can't be sure what would develop beyond 168hrs.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yes GEM has an easterly but it aint cold enough for snow . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2024 19:01:41
I'd be surprised if the Met Office update doesn't change to less cold tomorrow.  ECM 12z is another mild Op. Both GEFS AND GEM ensembles show very little in the way of cold.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gem&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Quantum
06 February 2024 19:25:13
18Z ICON is south of the 15Z ICON which is in turn south of the 12Z.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
CField
06 February 2024 19:37:01

Yes GEM has an easterly but it aint cold enough for snow . 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

signs of one on ECM but deep cold is a long way away...more like early winter than tail end 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Hippydave
06 February 2024 20:12:01
Interesting shift in the zonal wind projection on todays ECM:-

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402060000 Â 

Might mean nothing or it might not!

Model wise and the FI output still looks like a decent chance of HP establishing after this unsettled interlude, albeit the trend lately has been to delay that. 

TBH I'd take either a mild or chilly HP to see the winter off if offered, just not convinced we're not in one of those fun setups where background signals suggest blocking but smaller scale drivers move that away from the UK and we end up unsettled still. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
jhall
06 February 2024 20:13:58

signs of one on ECM but deep cold is a long way away...more like early winter than tail end 

Originally Posted by: CField 


Remember that with an easterly you don't need 850mb temperatures anything like as low as you do with a northerly, because the lower levels of the atmosphere haven't been warmed by a long transit over a relatively warm sea.
Cranleigh, Surrey
fairweather
06 February 2024 20:21:04

I'd be surprised if the Met Office update doesn't change to less cold tomorrow.  ECM 12z is another mild Op. Both GEFS AND GEM ensembles show very little in the way of cold.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gem&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


BBC outlook for next week showing 10C in the south. 🤨
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Chunky Pea
06 February 2024 20:22:18

............ unless it shows snow of course 😂

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Took the mouth right out of my words! 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
fairweather
06 February 2024 20:25:56

Took the mouth right out of my words! 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


No, that was "Loafmeat" 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+4
ballamar
06 February 2024 20:27:32
The ECM at 240 is loaded with potential hopefully it is onto something GFS is very undecided!
Downpour
06 February 2024 21:43:33

Can we please put the straws away, it is getting boring. It will turn back to average over the comings days and that is that. Guess what, it snows on hills, whozzers would never have thought that

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



Yup. Roll on spring. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Zubzero
06 February 2024 21:46:21
My hope off getting some air frosts in before winter ends looking unlikely  now 😔 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=318&y=110&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

I dont take much notice of charts showing snow much anymore as its getting rarer as each winter passes. 

I still think March will end up being colder then February, the longer range ECM gives some back up to my guess https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202402060000&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 
doctormog
06 February 2024 22:12:36
What’s this about snow on the hills, there’s some right down to the beach here just now. 😇

Seriously though the outlook is still messy and cold in the short to medium term (with the snow risk for N England then Scotland on Thursday/Friday) but then messy and possibly less cold beyond then. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
06 February 2024 23:15:05
Looks like a cooler snap of 1-2 days then back to 11c by day and 12c by night for the south...! Yucky with drizzle 
So much for this colder blocked February...
There is still time but seems like YET another one of those winters that teases us but fails to deliver! Anyway, best wait until April for snow. The heaviest of snow here was on 30th November 23 which wasn't yet winter anyway! 🤣
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
06 February 2024 23:19:43
6th - 22nd February Snow row for London according the the 18z: 😞

UserPostedImage 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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