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nsrobins
07 February 2024 06:51:24
The proposed cold early Feb (correction - that one went a few weeks ago) the cold second half of Feb hanging by a thread now. For multiple reasons something seems to have scuppered the signal for HLB placed to the NW (perhaps NE) and we’re facing a week of Atlantic waft from the weekend.
Only as it stands - it can change of course.
And not for all of course.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
07 February 2024 07:41:23
Although the last significant reduction in mean zonal winds worked against us in the UK, theres a full reversal being modelled from the 20th Feb which might stir things up enough to bring a snow flurry to Eastbourne around Mother’s Day.

http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html 

The cynicism is directed. It seems it really has become painfully difficult to get decent cold (for here, a deeply sourced E/NE flow in Jan/Feb) in recent years. Is it too late to find a new hobby? 😂😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
07 February 2024 07:43:20
GEFS seemingly wants to steer us safely home to what would surely be one of the mildest winters ever recorded in the UK or at least in the southern half of it. At the start of the season I said it would be an interesting one and it has been - at least in an abstract way. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
07 February 2024 07:59:24

GEFS seemingly wants to steer us safely home to what would surely be one of the mildest winters ever recorded in the UK or at least in the southern half of it. At the start of the season I said it would be an interesting one and it has been - at least in an abstract way. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Indeed, Interest now lies in can we have a record mild February CET. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
The Dub Version
07 February 2024 08:03:27
Would should normally happen, isnt. Climate change?, air too clean? Who knows? But the goalposts haven't just moved, one has gone missing.

Its possible that southern England may not see any significant lowland snow for years...uncharted territory.

 
Berkshire
BJBlake
07 February 2024 08:05:34
What is interesting is how much better the the GFS model handled the outlook compared to the ECM and UKMO and etc. The GFS was having none of this cold spell for a while, with a few brief teases in between, whereas the other models were locked in to a colder, blocked evolution. It seems the GFS is more in tune with the climate changed world and warmer seas perhaps. 

We know that not all SSWs and partial or full reversals will bring cold, but I would have expected more of a push against the Atlantic conveyor than we have seen. Its basically a 48 hour event in the south of average temperatures, compared to the relentless mild or very mild conveyor belt. This El Niño intensity of warmth might well be showing a glimpse of the future, but hopefully the new SSW and full reversal might deliver a march 18 beast for a couple of days. As per pert 20 of the GFS - at the end of Feb / first week of March?
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
David M Porter
07 February 2024 08:19:20
My view is that when the models are attempting to deal with anything that is at all different to a straight west to east pattern, they often struggle to one degree or another and I think that is what is happening here. Right now, I would be careful about praising one model over the others as I am yet to be convinced that any of them, at this moment in time, have got developments after the coming weekend fully sorted out.

IMO, a lot is going to depend on the behaviour of the low over the weekend and what occurs just after that, and it is that which has yet to be properly resolved as far as I can see.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
07 February 2024 08:27:47
Still plenty of time to get cold in, whilst there is a p20 still showing at the end will keep hopes up! Over 3 weeks of winter left or 6 if you believe some
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2024 08:35:48
WX charts with a major development this morning - week 1 has the familiar look with freezing weather from Scandinavia E[wards, and above norm for all of Europe. In Week 2 there's a significant withdrawal with all of the Baltic  fully N into Bothnia above freezing for the first time for weeks. Continental Europe and especially Britain even milder, just some cooler weather hanging on around Romania. Week 1 has heavy rain, might be snow, for most of W Europe incl Britain; in week 2 still damp but not as heavy with NW Scotland and coastal Norway still actually wet.

GFS Op - LP moving in from the Atlantic and deepening to 965mb SW Ireland Fri 9th; cold but source of air is from a not very cold continent so major snowfall at low levels unlikely. By Sunday 11th this LP has retreated to Iceland with a shallow trough over Britain. HP then develops over Europe with a run of long-fetch SW-lies over Britain and on into Scandinavia (NW Scotland still under Atlantic influence) which persists until Wed 21st  when a shift in location of LP/HP shifts the pattern to the usual zonal W-lies.

ECM - a bit slower to withdraw the trough on Sunday but brings in the SW-lies only a day later than GFS

GEFS - in S England, mild now, just on the cool side for a few days around Mon 12th, then mild or very mild with much better ens agreement than yesterday all the way to Fri 23rd, just a few cold outliers later on. Wet to Sat 10th, then occasional light pptn. In Scotland, cold now, recovering to norm or above Sat 10th, then as for S England, rainfall pattern also similar but likely to remain heavier in the NW. Snow row figures very high for the next 2 or 3 days in Scotland only, after which minimal everywhere (but TWO snow row figures don't include high level locations, and a quick scan of the N Pennines looks snowy on Friday 9th, soon thawing)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Chunky Pea
07 February 2024 08:41:08

Would should normally happen, isnt. Climate change?, air too clean? Who knows? But the goalposts haven't just moved, one has gone missing.

Its possible that southern England may not see any significant lowland snow for years...uncharted territory.

 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


I think it is that there is just not enough colder arctic air to 'fight back' any more.

Chilly and damp is what I'm seeing in the short to medium term, with a east Euro high maybe being something of interest in the longer. 

 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
nsrobins
07 February 2024 08:42:31

Still plenty of time to get cold in, whilst there is a p20 still showing at the end will keep hopes up! Over 3 weeks of winter left or 6 if you believe some

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



There will almost always be the odd pert that delivers what you want to see - that’s the nature of the model code and why they are there. Tweak a parameter or too at T0 and test the consequences to assist the confidence in the deterministic solution. When only a few perts go against the det. then the latter is more likely. Theres been plenty of occasions this winter and several preceding where a small group of very cold options have skewed opinion and the mean, only to be dropped a few days later. The principle applies to EPS, Mog, GEM and all the suites as well as GEFS but we see those 4 times a day so get analysed and criticised more often.
I didn’t invest in the last phantom easterly and am not investing in the next because there has never been a solid consensus in any one suite let alone across the codes. We’ve got close - both virtually and in reality - but it’s just not happening. 
Time to turn it around? Maybe, but for 23/24 at least, the (cliche alert) clock is ticking loudly now.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
The Dub Version
07 February 2024 08:58:42

I think it is that there is just not enough colder arctic air to 'fight back' any more.

Chilly and damp is what I'm seeing in the short to medium term, with a east Euro high maybe being something of interest in the longer. 

 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Its not only that, but cold spells that do occur seem to be very dry and give up easily and get swept away without a fight. No battles, nothing.
 
Berkshire
Rob K
07 February 2024 09:14:21
Looking at the GFS I am wondering whether there is going to be any snow left in the Alps at all by the time I go in mid March. Watching the slalom from Chamonix at the weekend and the mountains were green more than half the way up. It was apparently 17C in the resort.

GEM shows some promising snowfall there next week but GFS is Euroslug from here to eternity.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
07 February 2024 09:17:45

I think it is that there is just not enough colder arctic air to 'fight back' any more.


 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


And yet on the other side of the Atlantic the warming Arctic seems to lead to a weaker jet stream that always seems to loop south and allow intense cold outbreaks way down to the Gulf of Mexico. The USA has seen countless cold records broken in recent years (which is partly why there is such a high level of AGW scepticism over there. It mainly seems to be Europe that gets the warmth.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
07 February 2024 09:39:02

Looking at the GFS I am wondering whether there is going to be any snow left in the Alps at all by the time I go in mid March. Watching the slalom from Chamonix at the weekend and the mountains were green more than half the way up. It was apparently 17C in the resort.

GEM shows some promising snowfall there next week but GFS is Euroslug from here to eternity.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I posted this in the Environment thread last week; off topic but you might find it interesting- and depressing 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/winter-sports/68151487 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
The Beast from the East
07 February 2024 09:44:18

And yet on the other side of the Atlantic the warming Arctic seems to lead to a weaker jet stream that always seems to loop south and allow intense cold outbreaks way down to the Gulf of Mexico. The USA has seen countless cold records broken in recent years (which is partly why there is such a high level of AGW scepticism over there. It mainly seems to be Europe that gets the warmth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



And the cold air flooding into the atlantic fires up the jet to bugger up our chances of northern blocking as we see again now. In the 80s, I'm sure we would have had a raging easterly, instead looks like a warm southerly
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
07 February 2024 09:48:44

And yet on the other side of the Atlantic the warming Arctic seems to lead to a weaker jet stream that always seems to loop south and allow intense cold outbreaks way down to the Gulf of Mexico. The USA has seen countless cold records broken in recent years (which is partly why there is such a high level of AGW scepticism over there. It mainly seems to be Europe that gets the warmth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Interesting point, Rob.

On a similar note, it was mentioned on the BBC at the end of last year that somewhere in China (I think) saw either it's coldest or joint-coldest temperature on record early on last year. It then saw it's highest temperature on record last summer.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
nsrobins
07 February 2024 10:35:57
GFS 06Z offers no hope I’m afraid.
As Brian has alluded to, the MetO might have to start a robust campaign of backtracking their longer range ideas because as things stand very mild conditions look like settling in towards and beyond mid-month.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
07 February 2024 10:49:58

GFS 06Z offers no hope I’m afraid.
As Brian has alluded to, the MetO might have to start a robust campaign of backtracking their longer range ideas because as things stand very mild conditions look like settling in towards and beyond mid-month.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The Met seem to have been calling for cold continually since December, and while we have had a couple of cold snaps the overall picture has been far from cold.

Could it be that even the Met's well-known mild bias has been overtaken by reality?

All of which leads me to ponder how the models can account for a warming world. Does the physics need to be tweaked at all, or should everything still work as normal if you feed in starting data which is already warmer? I would have thought it is the latter - the models just solve fluid dynamics equations, so they shouldn't "care" about how warm the starting data is.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
07 February 2024 10:52:45

The Met seem to have been calling for cold continually since December, and while we have had a couple of cold snaps the overall picture has been far from cold.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



In that south that is putting it mildly* to say the least. (*perhaps warmly would be a better word)

Just out of interest, does anyone know what the teleconnection experts are currently saying? 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Tim A
07 February 2024 10:54:08

The Met seem to have been calling for cold continually since December, and while we have had a couple of cold snaps the overall picture has been far from cold.

Could it be that even the Met's well-known mild bias has been overtaken by reality?

All of which leads me to ponder how the models can account for a warming world. Does the physics need to be tweaked at all, or should everything still work as normal if you feed in starting data which is already warmer? I would have thought it is the latter - the models just solve fluid dynamics equations, so they shouldn't "care" about how warm the starting data is.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I have said before that Met Office seem more optimistic in recent years, with a few exceptions they never seemed as bullish about cold spells in the long ranger . Could just be due to a different person in charge of them, maybe that weights particular background signals higher . 

As for the current discrepancy,  once you have gone for cold, it makes sense to leave it a few days and see if the models revert to cold even if you don't believe it to be the most likely option,  rather than having to go through the process of changing it radically twice if the models flip again. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
fairweather
07 February 2024 10:59:45
Nobody in the south will be surprised by these developments and have been saying so for at least a week. There was never any consistent inter chart and inter run agreement for decent cold here unless you were among the straw clutchers. The ensemble data was the key with it never showing more than a couple of days below -5C 850's. In stark contrast to January there was much more agreement of a severe northerly for several days in all of the models and hence the greater degree of disappointment than this time round.
It isn't really possible now to have enough of a cold spell for this winter to be classified as cold or snowy but no doubt it will arrive at least once in Spring as usual!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
nsrobins
07 February 2024 11:28:46
For balance the 06Z GFS mean is much better in terms of a Scandy high than recent runs. I suspect the OP is more out of kilter compared to its suite than it has been.
Must be a few decent options. Still a glimmer?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Downpour
07 February 2024 11:47:25

In that south that is putting it mildly* to say the least. (*perhaps warmly would be a better word)

Just out of interest, does anyone know what the teleconnection experts are currently saying? 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I’m eager to know. And, moreover, we await the update on mountain torque, Brian, with bated breath. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
07 February 2024 11:49:23

Nobody in the south will be surprised by these developments and have been saying so for at least a week. There was never any consistent inter chart and inter run agreement for decent cold here unless you were among the straw clutchers. The ensemble data was the key with it never showing more than a couple of days below -5C 850's. In stark contrast to January there was much more agreement of a severe northerly for several days in all of the models and hence the greater degree of disappointment than this time round.
It isn't really possible now to have enough of a cold spell for this winter to be classified as cold or snowy but no doubt it will arrive at least once in Spring as usual!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Been the story of the winter Dave. One of those years where those of us who have been repeatedly sceptical of cold evolutions have been proved right time and again: despite wanting to be proved wrong! 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+2

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