Not much cheer for coldies on the WX charts. Freezing N of the usual line from S Sweden to S Urals, some very cold weather in the N of this area but even in week 2 less extension of cold weather into NW Europe and Britain remaining mild through both weeks. Pptn in week 1 for all Atlantic coastal countries and penetrating some distance from the coast, Britain getting the heaviest; in week 2, the wet area retreats to more limited coastal areas, plus a local heavy fall over Turkey.
GFS Op - LP moving into Ireland 970mb Fri 9th slowly drifting N and filling by Tue 13th as HP moves up from the S, not connecting with any really cold air. Ridge then develops from Norway to Britain, quite strongly for a while, fading but still the main feature for Britain Wed 21st.
ECM - similar though The LP on Friday is further S (SW England), with light E-lies for a while before moving away NE-wards. The following HP brings up air from the S or SE, the latter more so than GFS
GEFS - mild for the S until Sun 11th then temps near norm, rain for 3 or 4 days from Wed 7th, damp thereafter, no snow. Scotland temps dropping to cold until Fri 9th, then two groups of ens members for a a couple of days, one cold, one mild, before a general scatter about the mean on the norm from Tue 13th. Less rain on 7th than previously thought, more for the period after Fri 9th with best chances for snow at the start of this. N England has a briefer dip in temps than Scotland, and good agreement on mild to follow. Modest chances for snow, briefly, at least at low level stations.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl