My feelings is that it'll be a mixed but generally unsettled Summer, frequently convective in nature with some localised torrential "news breaking' downpours very likely. I think the temperatures will be around or slightly above normal overall but nights being quite warm, as I think there'll be a lot of cloudy conditions.

Of course, I could be wrong and its best to wait for official forecast from TWO experts. Having said that, I think it's be wise not to expect much from this summer.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 

Here's my thoughts for the coming Summer, based on various indicators such as ENSO, Atlantic SST anomalies, the QBO and recent 500mb anomalies.

June looks like it will be quite warm and potentially thundery. Lower pressure will tend to feature close to the southwest of the UK, and higher pressure to the northeast.  Therefore winds tending to be often between south and east.  Locally wet in southern Britain from thundery rain episodes, probably drier further north.  June will probably have the best chance of tapping into some proper heat (high 20's/low 30's), at least briefly.

I see quite a switch in weather patterns for July.  Much more of a westerly driven month and increasingly windy the further north you go.  The jet stream may force Low Pressure areas to take a track over the top of a mid-Atlantic High and then southeastwards into NW Europe, pushing the focus of any real heat into the Med and Eastern Europe.  So for the UK, probably quite unsettled and cool at times in northern Britain, more decent in southern areas and possibly a slightly warm month.  

For August, I'm seeing an improvement across the whole of the UK, still a largely westerly driven month but with High Pressure in the Atlantic drifting into the UK more often, giving most of the country some decent dry and quite warm spells.  Still unsettled in the north, but less so than July.  Overall quite warm and dry in Southern Britain, nearer average further north.

For the Summer overall, probably rainfall fairly close to average across the board, but locally wet where thunderstorms occur.   For temperatures, I expect southern areas to have a rather warm Summer, but nearer average further north.

 

Originally Posted by: Andy J 

I think we're due a decent summer - and I'm basing this on nothing but a theory that this spring has been unusually unsettled throughout, stemming from some similarly unusual synoptics, and so I've a hunch we'll get more settled weather through the summer, especially in July & August.

This is what I put in the MO thread:

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Little above. Mixed summer with some unsettled weather but with a few notable heatwaves thrown in. Definitely expecting more classic Spanish plumes than we've seen in recent years.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

The Met Office contingency planner forecast is now out for the 3 summer* months. Not surprisingly they show that a hot summer is most likely and the likelihood rises from June to summer overall.  This implies a warming trend as the summer progresses. The likelihood of wet weather also decreases slightly from June to the whole of summer which indicates a drying trend too. Overall I was surprised that the chance of a wet summer is about average.

So the conclusion is that there is a reasonable chance that July and August might be quite decent. 

Obviously these are all based on probabilities and in reality we could still get a washout. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jja_v1.pdf 

* - other definitions of summer are available

 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Their summer forecast last year was horrendous. I think it said something along the lines of increasing heatwaves. Summer was basically done with us all in June in terms of high temps for any period of time

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

1991 - 2020 Warmest
2018    16.10
2017    16.00
2003    15.90
2005    15.80
2006    15.80

1991 - 2020 Coldest
1991    11.90
2012    13.50
2013    13.60
2011    13.70
1999    13.80

Just looking at the warmest and coldest June's of the last 33 years and you can see a cold June rarely leads to a good rest of Summer only 2013 has half decent in this list the rest being poor. But conversely warm June's often lead to good Summers. All decent on that list with 03, 06 and 18 being all time classics. Obviously last year proved good June's dont always lead to good Summers. But we will need something extraordinary for this summer to turn out good with June being so poor. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Going to have a go at some temp predictions for Summer. We have an Omega block set up in the wrong place for the UK just like last July and August , that brought us 8 weeks of basically rubbish I think we will have a similar situation this year but obviously starting a month earlier. We also have significant HLB this year making it even worse. So my predictions are dire.

JUNE - won't hit 25c at all.

JULY - Scrape 25c/26c a couple of times but generally low 20s at best.

AUGUST- The best month but struggle for heat so the odd 28c here and there. 

Hope I'm wrong and we get a 76 redux.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman