You will be wrong, but we won't get a 76 redux. That's my prediction, anyway!

I reckon you can add 5C to each of those temperatures you mention, and bear in mind 30C is almost certain to be reached - the last time it wasn't was 31 years ago! And as for 28 being the max (I wish), you'd have to go back 50 years - 1974 was the last time the max was a rounded 28C.

https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1875.html 

EDIT: And we already have a rounded 28 in the bag for this year, as the max so far is 27.5.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

1991 - 2020 Warmest
2018    16.10
2017    16.00
2003    15.90
2005    15.80
2006    15.80

1991 - 2020 Coldest
1991    11.90
2012    13.50
2013    13.60
2011    13.70
1999    13.80

Just looking at the warmest and coldest June's of the last 33 years and you can see a cold June rarely leads to a good rest of Summer only 2013 has half decent in this list the rest being poor. But conversely warm June's often lead to good Summers. All decent on that list with 03, 06 and 18 being all time classics. Obviously last year proved good June's dont always lead to good Summers. But we will need something extraordinary for this summer to turn out good with June being so poor. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Similarly cold starts to June don't always mean a bad summer. 1989 and 1995 had dreadful starts to June, with the first third in 1989 averaging 10C+ (I realise 1989 is outside of your time window). 1990 had a poor June then July was good and August very good.
1999 had a very good July and a reasonable August. Scrolling forward, and 2022s super summer followed a pretty mediocre June. 

1995 is the one to focus on to be realistic about hopes for the summer. Had it not been for the heat of the last few days, it too would have been a sub 14. It ended just over. To the 16th the CET was just 12C (12.04°C) then there was a slight warming for about a week.
We know what happened in June and July- but that was exceptional, leading not just to a good summer, but one of the hottest in the series. 
Moral: don't count chickens etc etc
 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Similarly cold starts to June don't always mean a bad summer. 
 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

IIRC even the start of June 1976 was nothing special. We moved to Kent at Whitsun and the temp was quite ordinary when I had to resume teaching for the second half of term in Manchester leaving the family to settle in. It was maybe a fortnight later when they were running around in swimming costumes while Manchester had normal temps. It wasn't until the 23rd that date records started getting broken. 
https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Well that did the trick! Heavy drizzle/light rain this morning.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Spot on, I'd say. GFS had this area pegged at 13C for today, sticking with it right 'til the last minute - and so far it's hit 15.3. The old MetO automated was similarly poor, but at least the new model they're using is closer to reality - it seems to have bumped highs by around 2C compared to the old model. 13C, a good 5 or 6 below average, would have been noteworthy... even if the same in the other direction, 24 or 25, wouldn't have been.I can only agree that the record warm SSTs are throwing a spanner in the works. Kent is a peninsula, of course, so it's no surprise to see such errors here!https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ Last year saw record highs, of course, by a whopping margin... and we're as much above that again this year. It's utterly bonkers, but gets very little media attention - we just see people moaning on social media about how cold it is, how climate change is a myth, etc, etc.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

GFS has excelled itself for today here, predicting a high of 16°C which would be a whopping 5.6°C below the 1991-2020 average, only for the actual max to be a comparatively warm 19.2°C. Over 3°C above the forecast yet still over 2°C below average.
To be fair to GFS, even UKV, usually the best performer for my area, only had 17-18°C across the nearest two grid points.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Thanks Martin for that. So not too bad for SW London? Fairly average?
I'm sure NE England and SE Scotland would be towards the bottom of the pack 🙄

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Who remembers when Kevin Bradshaw  (aka Mr Data) used to publish his Manchester Summer Index every week or so to measure how this summer was progressing compared to summers of bygone days.

He used an algorithm based on cumulative Sun Hours, Average Maximum Temperature and Cumulative rain days (>= 0.2 mm IIRC) for his local readings oin Manchester

With his permission I hijacked this a few years ago to do my own version for my area in SW London which generally came out significantly higher than his nearly every year due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures down here on average

As there are so many complaints about this year's summer I thought it might be worth having another go at it. This one shoes this years data by f=day number of the summer (1-92) starting at day 10 for the best and worst or=f recent summers 2012 and 2018 and the best and worst for the last 125 years (1954 and 1976) plus 2024 so far

This year is just about bang in the middle of these and way better than 2012 to which some comparisons hav ebeen made
The graph is below and right click + open in new tab to see it fuller sized

Originally Posted by: lanky 

June 2024: Earth’s 13th-consecutive warmest month on record


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/june-2024-earths-13th-consecutive-warmest-month-on-record/


Doesn't feel like it here! But the link has a comprehensive list of global temp records for June and for the rest of the year, 99% of them heat records. 


Greenland, which appears to be monopolising our weather supply at the moment, did have the coldest N Hemisphere temp value for June, -33.9C on the 2nd.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I was out walking on the Hampshire Downs today and combining (Barley, I think) was in full swing.


The point to this is that a farming acquaintance in Essex always used to take holidays in July and come back at the start of August for the harvest, but in 1976 had to come back early i.e. in the last week of July as the corn was ripe. Now it seems that despite all the moaning about a cold summer, the harvest is about a week earlier than it was 50 years ago.

Originally Posted by: DEW