I think those 50C 2m temps would be records too!

---

This afternoons GEM is an eyebrow raiser,  HP builds in nicely day 6 and by day 10 we are in heatwave territory.  Unlike anything I've seen recently hopefully it's onto something. 

---

Sadly yesterday's GEM seems a mirage.  This mornings output unrelentingly grim. Cool unsettled. Still hints of a warm up about the 10th but don't hold your breath. Back to 60s Summer.

---

WX temp charts - week 1 as yesterday with a cool push south over Britain and the Low Countries, with compensating heat moving north over the E Baltic. This starts to reverse in week 2, comfortably warm from the Channel to the Baltic, still rather cool in N Scotland and N Scandinavia. Some rain in many places in Europe both weeks, driest in SW Britain week 1, in the Gulf of Bothnia week 2.

GFS Op - this week, HP to the SW and LP to the N/NE of Britain (closest on Thu when over Orkney) with mostly NW-ly winds. Shallow LP 1000mb in this circulation runs up the Channel Sun 7th, before HP revives, this time settling over the N Sea which combined with depression 1000mb W of Ireland is bringing in warm S/SE-lies by Thu 11th. The LP edges closer and by Tue 16th appears as a trough across C Britain.

ECM - not unlike GFS but manages to include two LPs in the circulation, 995mb N England Sat 6th as well as one in the Channel Tue 9th before the HP gets to the N Sea.

GEM - just the one LP as for GFS but over N England.

GEFS - mostly on the cool side to about Wed 10th, then on the warm side but nothing dramatic. Rain in small amounts for the S from Sat  6th, but from the outset in N Scotland (only one or two runs with heavier falls in the S, several such in W Scotland but not universally so) 

---

For the south it really doesn't look that bad.  A bit of drizzle overnight which was the first rain for two weeks here (since June 16th). Yesterday hit 24C. 21-22C likely today in any bright spells. The next week looks maybe a degree or two below average but largely dry and useable, then signs of more warmth as you say in 10 days time.

---

I think this week will feel ok if the sunshines if it's cloudy it will be poor. Does look dry though for the South. Wet for the NW.

A better GEFS 6z. P12 a furnace run upto 39c.

---

Hints of plume potential on the EC at day 10 onwards. 

---

WX temp charts much as yesterday; quite cool through Britain and into E France/Germany for week 1 though Baltic area already cooler; in week 2 a more E-W trend in isobars, S Britain becoming warm along with Germany, still cool in Scotland and Norway.

GFS Op - HP to the S or SW and LP to the N or NE for this week, with winds from a cool NW or N direction. New LP moving towards Ireland Mon 8th breaks this pattern with warmer air from the S which doesn't get to the far N immediately while shallow LP spreads over Britain, perhaps linking with (thundery?) continental LP by Sat 13th. Then a SW-NE ridge of HP, quite substantial, develops over W Britain suggesting a chance of hot and sunny weather for the week following that.

ECM - very close to GFS

GEM - LP on Mon 8th is deeper and further to the NW with SW-lies, perhaps not as warm as the above

GEFS - mostly on the cool side until Wed 10th, then mostly on the warm side. Some rain in some runs from Sat 6th in the SE, more or less throughout elsewhere, but no great amounts.

---

It’s not looking too bad for Silverstone next weekend. Son and daughter-in-law are camping there from Wednesday to next Monday, so hoping it stays dry and not too windy for them.   

---

A warmer more settled pattern does appear to be coming into view in about 8 days . Can we count it down?

---

FI on the 0z GFS had a nice-looking set-up, with high pressure setting-up over/just to the north of the UK. The signal is far less pronounced on the 6z run.

I'd love to see the synoptics of May/June 2018 happen in a July/August. 

---

Sure we can. In 8 days' time it will still be 8 days away. Just like a cold spell in winter 🙂

---