WX temp charts continue the trend of the last few days; week 1 temps a few degrees above norm for all of Europe; week 2 a northerly plunge making Russia a lot colder, and a southerly push making western coasts a lot warmer (reaching S England, not too bad for the north either). The Sun is forecasting 20C for Halloween. Rain for Scandinavia and Spain in week 1, very dry elsewhere including Britain; in week 2 very dry for the whole of Europe except for western coasts, these including Ireland and W Scotland.
GFS Op - HP dominating British weather for the next 10 days or so (and for most of Europe, too); as an W-E ridge by Wed 30th, centred over Britain 1030mb Sat 2nd, then slipping E-wards to E Europe giving light S-lies for Britain Tue 5th. It persists there strongly enough to influence Britain until Sun 10th when Atlantic troughs start to move in, weak at first but LP 950mb Faeroes Tue 12th not only projecting a trough S-wards but SW-ly gales as well, and hints of N-ly plunge to follow.
ECM - similar to GFS but less movement E-wards for the HP, 1030mb Holland Tue 5th, covering a larger area and still dominant at end of run Thu 7th. [Note - ECM download now available from 0700 local time now the clocks have changed so this review can be posted earlier]
GEM - position of HP similar to ECM, but less intense so troughs not far from W Britain Wed 6th
GEFS - good agreement on temps up to 5C above norm, declining slightly later, with the exception of a couple of dips to near norm Wed 30th (England only) and Sat 2nd plus a few cold outliers after Sun 10th. Dry at least until Sun 10th (Tue 5th in Scotland) when a little rain in a few ens members but rather more and occasionally heavy in far NW at that time.
Edited by user
Monday, October 28, 2024 7:39:43 AM
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Reason: Not specified
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