Model Output Discussion· Page 35

White Meadows
Advanced Member

26 October 2024 06:31:49

I wanted to make the -10, -5, 0, 5 and 10C boundaries very clear, particularly the 0C one. Most of the feedback has been very positive (not sure if you're on Twitter) but I'll run it for a while and see how it goes.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Looks great Brian. Thanks for the explainer 👍

DEW
Advanced Member

26 October 2024 07:03:32

#852

WX temp prediction much the same as yesterday, perhaps rather colder in C Europe in week 2 : generally above norm for week 1, generally cooling in week2 but especially so in N Scandinavia and Russia, some warmth moving into S Spain and Biscay. Rain somewhat different: in week 1 a very dry area from C Europe across to Britain, rain for N Atlantic, also Spain and W Med; in week 2 the former area of rain moving S-wards to affect Britain, and the latter area moving E-wards to C Mediterranean and very dry across S Europe.

GFS Op - HP displacing current trough and setting up as W-E ridge 1025mb Wed 30th tilting to N-S 1030mb Mon 4th (N-ly plunge only just the other side of the N Sea) and eventually moving SE-wards by Fri 8th with S-ly winds. Finally the Atlantic intervenes and on Mon11th an extended trough all the way from W Greenland to 995mb Cornwall.

ECM - similar to GFS but the centre of the HP always a little further S or W so more chance of N-lies affecting the E coast and less influence later from the S.

GEM - moves the HP centre further east than GFS so no chance of N-lies and S-lies set in by Sun 3rd

GEFS -Generally mean temp supported by all ens members rising to a maximum say 3C above norm Fri 1st, dropping back to just above norm in the far S but north of London, a definite dip to cold for a few days after Fri 1st before recovering. Mean then stays a degree or two above norm but this conceals a majority of ens members well above, the average dragged down by a few cold/vcold ens members incl op run. Very dry, a little rain now and also appearing in some runs after Fri 8th.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

+4

idj20
Advanced Member

26 October 2024 13:21:14

#853

Looks like anticyclone gloom could be a thing in the opening days of November as high pressure becomes established over the UK and dragging maritime-type air in and holding it in place like a fart trapped under a duvet. But I still think the longer the Angry Atlantic holds off, the better.

Folkestone Harbour.

+4

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

26 October 2024 14:41:03

#854

Looks like anticyclone gloom could be a thing in the opening days of November as high pressure becomes established over the UK and dragging maritime-type air in and holding it in place like a fart trapped under a duvet. But I still think the longer the Angry Atlantic holds off, the better.

Originally Posted by: idj20

:D 😃 😃

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

26 October 2024 15:14:05

#855

Long way off but a model trend that has been consistent over the last 2 or 3 days that shows much of Europe with below average temps for a while, which while should not be extraordinary in itself, is an increasingly rare occurrence these days.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

Rob K
Advanced Member

26 October 2024 18:12:52

#856

Looks like anticyclone gloom could be a thing in the opening days of November as high pressure becomes established over the UK and dragging maritime-type air in and holding it in place like a fart trapped under a duvet. But I still think the longer the Angry Atlantic holds off, the better.

Originally Posted by: idj20

Very HP dominated for the next couple of weeks if GFS is on the mark. Old-school foggy autumn FTW.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1

CField
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 06:51:28

#857

Northern Scandinavia looks the place to be for any cold winter weather....whether some of this cold pooling can feed its way down from the North East remains to be seen.Not looking great tbh after the initial good omens of mid late September have been rapidly put in their place by the mighty heights to the south.

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

+1

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 08:02:08

#858

Remarkably settled outlook continues hardly any rain for the next 2 weeks. V mild for the most part as well. If its a sunny high will feel v pleasant.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

DEW
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 08:04:36

#859

WX temp charts continuing as they have recently; week 1 temps above seasonal norm for the whole of Europe, but in week 2 something much colder moving south for all of European Russia, not quite affecting Scandinavia as much as previously. Milder around coastal Iberia and Biscay, not much change for Britain. In both weeks rain for W Mediterranean and N Atlantic, very dry in a broad band from Greece to Britain, this dry area most marked for England and significant rain in Britain only for the Outer Isles in week 2.

GFS Op - HP off to the SW today moving up to become centred over Britain 1025mb Thu 31st with ridge to SE, slowly tilting to a N-S orientation Sun 3rd (which generates N-lies for the other side of the N Sea), then moving E-wards to Poland Wed 6th with S-lies for Britain. By Tue 12th the HP has moved via France to SW Ireland 1035mb with strong W/NW-lies for Britain during that week.

ECM - similar to GFS but Britain retains the HP after Sun 3rd and on Wed 6th it's centred in the southern N Sea.

GEM - like GFS but with some weakening of the HP as it moves around Poland and France, allowing Atlantic troughs to approach W Britain by Tue 5th

GEFS - temps generally a few degrees above norm, just a couple of brief dips Wed 30th (not for Scotland) and Sun 3rd (especially Scotland); a few cold outliers after the 3rd but mostly good ens agreement. Very little rain, and that in the far NW, now and possibly in 10 days' time.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

+5

David M Porter
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 12:40:02

#860

Remarkably settled outlook continues hardly any rain for the next 2 weeks. V mild for the most part as well. If its a sunny high will feel v pleasant.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Given the amount of rain that many parts of the UK have had over recent weeks and months and indeed going back over the last year or so, I would think an extended period of mostly settled weather would be very welcome for many, no matter whether it is predominantly mild or cold.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

+4

Matty H
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 18:08:09

#861

Looks pretty superb really. If November remains mild that’s another potentially cold month consigned to history and another step closer to Spring.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html

+7

DEW
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 19:44:31

#862

Looks pretty superb really. If November remains mild that’s another potentially cold month consigned to history and another step closer to Spring.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Mild Novembers are all very well but I hope there's less cloud around than the Countryfile forecast suggested

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

ozone_aurora
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 19:58:10

#863

Remarkably settled outlook continues hardly any rain for the next 2 weeks. V mild for the most part as well. If its a sunny high will feel v pleasant.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Hopefully, it's a beginning a drought or at least drier than normal conditions, and even the end of the repercussion of an SSW event of March 2023. It ought to be, as it has been so wet and miserable overall since March 2023!

Hopefully, there'll be some good clear nights for Astrophotography.

Edited by user 27 October 2024 20:00:37 | Reason: Not specified

+4

Hungry Tiger
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 20:20:04

#864

Looks pretty superb really. If November remains mild that’s another potentially cold month consigned to history and another step closer to Spring.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

🙂 🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

GezM
Advanced Member

27 October 2024 22:01:53

#865

Mild Novembers are all very well but I hope there's less cloud around than the Countryfile forecast suggested

Originally Posted by: DEW

Indeed. Cloud free high pressure systems are difficult enough to guarantee in mid summer. By mid to late Autumn they are pretty much impossible. Looks like cloud will be stubborn to break up and then if it does, it often leads to overnight fog which then lifts up to low cloud again! I'm expecting very variable cloud amounts with a few sunny spells. Perhaps the high pressure position shift around the 3rd will usher in some drier air from the continent.

Overall I'm pleased to see a long dry(ish) and mild period ahead of us.

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

+1

DEW
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 07:37:42

#866

WX temp charts continue the trend of the last few days; week 1 temps a few degrees above norm for all of Europe; week 2 a northerly plunge making Russia a lot colder, and a southerly push making western coasts a lot warmer (reaching S England, not too bad for the north either). The Sun is forecasting 20C for Halloween. Rain for Scandinavia and Spain in week 1, very dry elsewhere including Britain; in week 2 very dry for the whole of Europe except for western coasts, these including Ireland and W Scotland.

GFS Op - HP dominating British weather for the next 10 days or so (and for most of Europe, too); as an W-E ridge by Wed 30th, centred over Britain 1030mb Sat 2nd, then slipping E-wards to E Europe giving light S-lies for Britain Tue 5th. It persists there strongly enough to influence Britain until Sun 10th when Atlantic troughs start to move in, weak at first but LP 950mb Faeroes Tue 12th not only projecting a trough S-wards but SW-ly gales as well, and hints of N-ly plunge to follow.

ECM - similar to GFS but less movement E-wards for the HP, 1030mb Holland Tue 5th, covering a larger area and still dominant at end of run Thu 7th. [Note - ECM download now available from 0700 local time now the clocks have changed so this review can be posted earlier]

GEM - position of HP similar to ECM, but less intense so troughs not far from W Britain Wed 6th

GEFS - good agreement on temps up to 5C above norm, declining slightly later, with the exception of a couple of dips to near norm Wed 30th (England only) and Sat 2nd plus a few cold outliers after Sun 10th. Dry at least until Sun 10th (Tue 5th in Scotland) when a little rain in a few ens members but rather more and occasionally heavy in far NW at that time.

Edited by user 28 October 2024 07:39:43 | Reason: Not specified

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

+5

White Meadows
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 09:41:16

#867

Winters have been pretty unexciting and hopelessly fruitless for coldies for so long. I don’t look forward to December in the same way I used to. Instead that optimism and interest has shifted to early spring.
Still can’t knock a bit of model watching …JFF 😉

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 11:16:34

#868

Winters have been pretty unexciting and hopelessly fruitless for coldies for so long. I don’t look forward to December in the same way I used to. Instead that optimism and interest has shifted to early spring.
Still can’t knock a bit of model watching …JFF 😉

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Growing up, I used to view Decembers as not a snowy month at all. I used to wonder why Xmas was associated with snow because, apart from Xmas 81, they were all snowless and mostly mild/wet (I have memories of two school Xmas fayres where it was lashing it down). After Xmas was when the chances increased. My missus has her birthday in March and always says how she often got snow in March (she claims March is the snowiest month, and I have to diplomatically say I'm not sure on that!)

Anyway, the 00's saw an increased prevalence of cold and sometimes snowy conditions setting in just after Xmas (or even on Xmas day like in 2004), then we had the Decembers of 09 and 10, which were amazing.

Meanwhile, February had become a snow drought (for my neck of the woods, at least). Never more stark that the 2012/13 winter

I began to view December as one of the better bet months for cold and snow.

That's rather diminished in subsequent years! (although we've not a good (ie, 10cm+) fall of snow since March 2013.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

+1

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 13:19:46

#869

November/December months are my favorite of the year. Dark with the potential for some robust weather. Not looking good for that so far in the models. Quiet and warm with perhaps some lingering fogs if we are lucky.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 13:32:17

#870

I wanted to make the -10, -5, 0, 5 and 10C boundaries very clear, particularly the 0C one. Most of the feedback has been very positive (not sure if you're on Twitter) but I'll run it for a while and see how it goes.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

I think that colour contrast is excellent; a really good idea, thanks.

👍

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

CField
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 20:07:22

#871

Looking at the archives for November 78, it was very familiar to now, the next 6 weeks are crucial to how this winter evolves.

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

bledur
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 20:20:51

#872

November/December months are my favorite of the year. Dark with the potential for some robust weather. Not looking good for that so far in the models. Quiet and warm with perhaps some lingering fogs if we are lucky.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea

Cant stand November , December, Dank, Dark, Damp, often mild . Yuk. Get to the middle of January and the days are noticeably longer and the air seems drier.

+3

White Meadows
Advanced Member

28 October 2024 20:40:10

#873

Recent winters have indeed seen their coldest spells early on. And this year will be no exception based on Exeter’s updated Contingency Planners 3 month outlook today:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ndj_v1.pdf
Overall winter being cold just 5%!!
Can’t remember seeing it that poor since its conception. Much higher chance of ‘normal’ (mild) or ‘mild’ (very mild). The only crumb of comfort for me is the absence of particularly windy or wet conditions overall.

+1