theweatheroutlook

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Chunky Pea
30 October 2024 18:01:57
Ridiculously humid here as well. Oddly though, fog rarely touches down. Had a bit yesterday morning but that was it. Dank stillness the main theme of the models for another while it seems. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2024 07:58:28
WX temps - progressive changes from week 1 (above norm in W Europe , cool for Russia, warm around coasts of Spain) to a situation in week 2 in which cold, even really cold, air is piling up over Russia and beginning to spill into E  Europe. Still warm for Mediterranean coasts but this warmth retreating from SW Britain and Biscay. Very dry for Europe in week 1 except the far north - the dry area shrinking E-wards in week 2 (more so than shown yesterday, just still affecting SE Britain) with rain appearing for Ireland and W Scotland as well as S France.

GFS Op - HP close to or over Britain to  Thu 14th ridging to the SE for most of the time, some close approaches to W Britain from Atlantic troughs around Tue 5th. Then the HP suddenly splits into two parts, one over W Russia, one over the Azores and by Sat 16th a large but shallow area of LP covers Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS but by Sun 10th HP has drifted S-wards to Biscay and Britain is under SW-lies.

GEM - like ECM

GEFS - mean temp staying well above norm (say 6C at max) to Sat 16th , good ens agreement to Sat 9th but quite wide divergence in the N later on; only a little rain and that scattered over only a few runs - after Tue 12th in the SE, after Thu 7th in the N & W. [Op run temp for Plymouth shows an improbable 14C above norm on the 14th!]

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2024 08:13:55

WX temps - progressive changes from week 1 (above norm in W Europe , cool for Russia, warm around coasts of Spain) to a situation in week 2 in which cold, even really cold, air is piling up over Russia and beginning to spill into E  Europe. Still warm for Mediterranean coasts but this warmth retreating from SW Britain and Biscay. Very dry for Europe in week 1 except the far north - the dry area shrinking E-wards in week 2 (more so than shown yesterday, just still affecting SE Britain) with rain appearing for Ireland and W Scotland as well as S France.

GFS Op - HP close to or over Britain to  Thu 14th ridging to the SE for most of the time, some close approaches to W Britain from Atlantic troughs around Tue 5th. Then the HP suddenly splits into two parts, one over W Russia, one over the Azores and by Sat 16th a large but shallow area of LP covers Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS but by Sun 10th HP has drifted S-wards to Biscay and Britain is under SW-lies.

GEM - like ECM

GEFS - mean temp staying well above norm (say 6C at max) to Sat 16th , good ens agreement to Sat 9th but quite wide divergence in the N later on; only a little rain and that scattered over only a few runs - after Tue 12th in the SE, after Thu 7th in the N & W. [Op run temp for Plymouth shows an improbable 14C above norm on the 14th!]

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Finally, the first signs of a shift are appearing on the horizon, hinting at a possible change in the pattern and a potential displacement of the high-pressure system for the latter half of November. Although it’s still quite far down the line, it’s clear that the current trend can’t persist for ever.
Kingston Upon Thames
warrenb
31 October 2024 11:06:26
And back to square one with the 6z GFS. High pressure completely dominant.
Tonbridge 45m 
+2
White Meadows
31 October 2024 12:32:58
A Long dry spell is WELL overdue. Not to mention much needed in this neck of the woods. The lawns are very boggy and country walks are mostly impassable in many areas. 
+2
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2024 15:39:59

And back to square one with the 6z GFS. High pressure completely dominant.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


It's refusing to budge. It occasionally shows signs of sinking southeast or drifting westward, but each time it just rebuilds and strengthens again.

Really boring




Kingston Upon Thames
Matty H
31 October 2024 19:21:15

Finally, the first signs of a shift are appearing on the horizon, hinting at a possible change in the pattern and a potential displacement of the high-pressure system for the latter half of November. Although it’s still quite far down the line, it’s clear that the current trend can’t persist for ever.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


Finally? What have we had, like one dry day so far lol 🤣 

The longer its stays bone dry and mild the better as far as I’m concerned. Keep this until March please, and then bring back that proper warmth 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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+1
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2024 19:38:00

Finally? What have we had, like one dry day so far lol 🤣 

The longer its stays bone dry and mild the better as far as I’m concerned. Keep this until March please, and then bring back that proper warmth 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Matty,

While I agree with you, I'm really hoping for some heavy snow in the French Alps by mid-December. Purely selfish reasons, of course, but so far, it's been unseasonably mild—seems more like daffodil-picking weather than skiing!
Kingston Upon Thames
+1
Jiries
31 October 2024 20:37:19

It's refusing to budge. It occasionally shows signs of sinking southeast or drifting westward, but each time it just rebuilds and strengthens again.

Really boring



Originally Posted by: Sasa 


Agreed I completely hate HP nowadays they just deliver cloud, rain and dull weather all year around.  Last summer we lost the sun and warmth when HP move in wit created fronts that stuck for days.  HP are supposed to keep skies clear, properly settled and sunny with clear nights with interesting temperature ranges.  HP destroy our summer days and winters nowadays, they just sit there to keep cold and snow out of here and in summer keep the sun and heat out as well by cloud cover.
+1
White Meadows
31 October 2024 21:29:12

Matty,

While I agree with you, I'm really hoping for some heavy snow in the French Alps by mid-December. Purely selfish reasons, of course, but so far, it's been unseasonably mild—seems more like daffodil-picking weather than skiing!

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


Forget it, the signs for anything over 0.5cm this side of January look utterly awful. 
Unless you plan on visiting the States or Canada of course. 


dagspot
31 October 2024 22:02:19
where did the weekend ‘plunge’ in temperatures go for Scotland? 14 now? positively balmy
Neilston 600ft ASL
+1
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2024 22:10:51

where did the weekend ‘plunge’ in temperatures go for Scotland? 14 now? positively balmy

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


It showed 10C  max here for Saturday now that's Monday and Tuesday.
Signs are there for a significant cold plunge around mid-month with air originating in Siberia, if that happens widespread snow is likely, at least in northern half. Apparently snow is now impossible in southern England due to UHI presumably..
North York Moors weather 
Hungry Tiger
31 October 2024 23:02:45

Finally? What have we had, like one dry day so far lol 🤣 

The longer its stays bone dry and mild the better as far as I’m concerned. Keep this until March please, and then bring back that proper warmth 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


     🙂 🙂 🙂  I agree Matty. 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
The Dub Version
01 November 2024 08:03:00
Any idea what of kind of loaded winter we will get apart from the usual b.s loaded one?
Berkshire
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 November 2024 08:05:23
WX temps - the cold area over N Russia has shrunk a little since yesterday's forecast,, as has its effect on E Europe, and the mild weather over Portugal and Biscay hasn't retreated as much. But with these two exceptions, W Europe continues to be a few degrees above norm for the next two weeks. In week 1 there is a broad area of very dry conditions from Turkey to and including Britain; this begins to break up in week 2, with rain developing on Atlantic coasts and in the W Med. Most of Britain and France stays dry as does the the Baltic and W Russia.

GFS Op - HP is the major influence over Britain for the next two weeks - retreating slightly to the east Wed 6th with Atlantic troughs close to Ireland but moves back by Mon 11th before slowly collapsing Sun 17th. Deep and cold LPs coming and going S of Greenland and near the Urals.

ECM - like GFS; if anything HP stays closer Wed 6th which results in S-ly gales for W Britain

GEM - like ECM though the S-ly gales are a day or so later

GEFS - temps above norm through to Sun 17th, up to 6C at first, decreasing slowly, quite good ens agreement degrading to some extent after Fri 8th, more so in Scotland. A little rain in a few runs after Fri 8th generally, rather more frequent and heavier at this time in the far N & W
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Brian Gaze
01 November 2024 08:08:05
Amazing consistency in recent days from GEFS and ECM ENS. 
Someone on X (I think) mentioned similarities with October - November 1988. Reanalysis charts from here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1988&month=Oct&dom=25&var=HPA®ion=NA&level=500&hour=00 


UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Retron
01 November 2024 08:19:38

Amazing consistency in recent days from GEFS and ECM ENS. 
Someone on X (I think) mentioned similarities with October - November 1988. Reanalysis charts from here

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Ugh. Following the lovely snowy early to mid 80s, winter 87/88 and 88/89 shattered my world view - and showed that my old gran (in her 60s!) was actually right when she said that some years it didn't even snow.

That said, if there's one thing we've learned over the past 25 years or so it's that pattern matching doesn't really work reliably. There's always something that pops up to skew things, most easily noticed in the event of pattern matching throwing up a cold outcome in winter.

The fact the AI models show a slightly better accuracy compared to deterministic/traditional ensemble forecasting is interesting, mind you, and perhaps there's potential if we improve our understanding more.

The only thing that's certain, it seems, is that it's going to be a very dull and mild week ahead for most of us. It's a pity in a way that the sun can't make more of an appearance, as with 850s widely into double figures - on a par with August's average - it would perhaps get into the high teens or even 20C, which would be noteworthy.

(And despite it all, I've no complaints really. It's nice to not be wondering whether the neighbour's fence is going to blow down again, or whether that bit of the main road will flood again due to blocked drains!)
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 November 2024 08:31:28
Mild is good for the heating bills and just as well, because dull isn’t good for generating much solar power. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
01 November 2024 08:38:24
Dry, stable weather looks set to persist well into mid-November. Although models briefly suggested a woble or a shift in the pattern, it now appears any change has been delayed to later in the month. It raises the question: could this dry trend extend into December as well?
Kingston Upon Thames
Devonian
01 November 2024 09:26:28

It showed 10C  max here for Saturday now that's Monday and Tuesday.
Signs are there for a significant cold plunge around mid-month with air originating in Siberia, if that happens widespread snow is likely, at least in northern half. Apparently snow is now impossible in southern England due to UHI presumably..

Originally Posted by: four 


And that's gone too.

FI cold spells? They're mostly best ignored unless much repeated. 'Benign' probably sums up the weather for the forseeable. And, If I had to bet, another very mild winter beckons.
warrenb
01 November 2024 09:46:16
As you were
Tonbridge 45m 
Chunky Pea
01 November 2024 10:05:27

Dry, stable weather looks set to persist well into mid-November. Although models briefly suggested a woble or a shift in the pattern, it now appears any change has been delayed to later in the month. It raises the question: could this dry trend extend into December as well?

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


15 dayer suggests little change in the NH pattern as you say:
UserPostedImage

Whatever hope the UK has of seeing some lower level coolness at night under these conditions, there is next to zero chance for me. Airmass is just too humid and warm. Already looking like it could be the warmest and driest November on record for moi. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
idj20
01 November 2024 10:22:48
Good, innit? 😍🤣

15 years ago I would have got bored and frustrated with this type of set up, but as I got older and wiser I've become more relieved. I still wouldn't say no to a decent "Beast From The East" type set up as we go into Winter but those are rare as rocking horse's poop, at least as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
01 November 2024 10:27:30
I see fake 20 next Friday here in the midlands? Idiot app going for those with 10 days of no sun so seeing 20 without sun will not happen at all most likely low 10s. Highest I recorded was 19 in Epsom under wall to wall FULL sun. Who ever issue 20 frankly massive idiot one. 
Rob K
01 November 2024 13:09:12

I see fake 20 next Friday here in the midlands? Idiot app going for those with 10 days of no sun so seeing 20 without sun will not happen at all most likely low 10s. Highest I recorded was 19 in Epsom under wall to wall FULL sun. Who ever issue 20 frankly massive idiot one. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Well quite :)

My phone is showing 20C for next Friday. Date record for the 8th is 19.1C all the way back in 1881!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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