theweatheroutlook

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Joe Bloggs
08 November 2024 10:44:52
Expectations are so low for this upcoming winter period with the vast majority of long range model output suggesting a positive NAO and very mild weather.
It’s interesting to see therefore that there are some signs of Greenland blocking already as we head towards the end of November. Poetic. 🤣 Like Matty says it would be nice to see some actual brightness and sunshine. 
Anyway the trend is obvious on the GFS ensemble. 
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Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
08 November 2024 12:09:49
Back again on the GFS 06Z, albeit short lived.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Taylor1740
08 November 2024 14:20:20

Expectations are so low for this upcoming winter period with the vast majority of long range model output suggesting a positive NAO and very mild weather.
It’s interesting to see therefore that there are some signs of Greenland blocking already as we head towards the end of November. Poetic. 🤣 Like Matty says it would be nice to see some actual brightness and sunshine. 
Anyway the trend is obvious on the GFS ensemble. 
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Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Yes I've never known a winter look so nailed on to be extremely mild as this one. Would be surprised if it isn't top 5 warmest but we'll see if the weather surprises us.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Retron
08 November 2024 17:03:17
The 12z GFS today serves up a classic west-based NAO, the sort of thing that brings very unsettled weather for us, mild wet and windy.
This is, of course, a very familiar pattern in recent years. We see what looks like a northerly plunge, and one of two things happens - either the plunge passes to the east, clipping Scotland, or the plunge spins up a low to the west and bam, west-based NAO.
At least we're not in the heart of winter, so it's all academic at this time of year...
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
David M Porter
08 November 2024 18:02:16

IIRC that cold period was triggered by a SSW and was well signalled ahead of the event.  I’ve been looking at the 10hPa wind forecast charts and they don’t show anything particularly unusual at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Hi Peter,

Your memory must be better than mine in this instance, as until I read your post I had no recollection of there being a SSW ahead of the freeze that started in the last few days of November 2010. I do recall that the models picked up on this at the pretty early stage and the cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency were very high in the lead-up to the start of that freeze.

Do you or anyone else here recall if there was also a SSW in November/December 2009 before the freeze that began shortly before Christmas that year? From what I recall, the pressure set-up at the end of 2009 was almost the exact same as what was in place at the end of the following year and also as with 2010, there was excellent cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency for a good couple of weeks before the freeze began.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
08 November 2024 18:04:32

The 12z GFS today serves up a classic west-based NAO, the sort of thing that brings very unsettled weather for us, mild wet and windy.
This is, of course, a very familiar pattern in recent years. We see what looks like a northerly plunge, and one of two things happens - either the plunge passes to the east, clipping Scotland, or the plunge spins up a low to the west and bam, west-based NAO.
At least we're not in the heart of winter, so it's all academic at this time of year...

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Like you I have given up on snow and proper cold here. For as long as this 2 day northerly produces snow in the French Alps in time for mid december I will be happy
Kingston Upon Thames

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