theweatheroutlook

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sunnyramsgate
26 July 2018 07:32:01
According to Carol Kirkwood the heat rebuilds back after midweek next week
Easternpromise
26 July 2018 07:34:40


00Z ensembles. Judge for yourself.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=370&y=4&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0&type=0




Ian is exaggerating a little as is his wont but you can’t deny there has been quite a shift in the last 12 hours.


 


ECM is rolling out so let’s see if that gives any more clues. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


On that ensemble from the 1st to the 5th, 850 temps on a lot of runs are still in the 10 to 15 range. Surely that would still constitute warm to hot temperatures at ground level?  Maybe we shan't have the very hot conditions like today and tomorrow but that's fine with me. What I'm seeing on the ensembles for my location is a continuation of warm to hot weather after a brief cooler period.

Location: Yaxley, Suffolk
GIBBY
26 July 2018 07:42:33


 


Sorry ian but that is utter rubbish and you know it.


 


Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


What Ian has said and has said on many posts in the past is exaggerated but dumbing it down into trends rather than actualities there is an element of truth in it looking at recent and more especially this morning’s output.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


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Polar Low
26 July 2018 07:59:47

Martin there is a strong element of truth in this statement as well.


quote=LeedsLad123;1021545]


 


He's been waiting for a chance to piss on everyone's chips since February  - notice how he only becomes active if the models start showing what most of us don't want. He has been largely absent during this good spell of weather. Just a typical troll.


 


briggsy6
26 July 2018 07:59:57

I get the impression that the rainfall for tomorrow is being scaled back for South Eastern areas to just scattered showers, though maybe heavier rain for a while late Fri evening?

Location: Uxbridge
Polar Low
26 July 2018 08:03:25


Martin there is a strong element of truth in this statement as well.


ps I don’t dislike Ian either I choose to ignore those type of “Ian” post just making a point to you


quote=LeedsLad123;1021545]


 


He's been waiting for a chance to piss on everyone's chips since February  - notice how he only becomes active if the models start showing what most of us don't want. He has been largely absent during this good spell of weather. Just a typical troll.


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Rob K
26 July 2018 08:11:14
FWIW the ECM op run looks like it was the coolest of the entire suite by the end of the run.

For London the ensemble mean 850 temp at 240 hours is 14C. The op run is about 8C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
26 July 2018 08:23:05

Rob is that just me? I thought id check that location (Strange location)?


https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/54%C2%B000'00.0%22N+1%C2%B042'00.0%22E/@54.0000031,-2.7824216,6z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d54!4d1.7


 



00Z ensembles. Judge for yourself.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=370&y=4&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0&type=0




Ian is exaggerating a little as is his wont but you can’t deny there has been quite a shift in the last 12 hours.


 


ECM is rolling out so let’s see if that gives any more clues. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Polar Low
26 July 2018 08:26:17

Very sensible post Steve 



Lets be honest. If today and tomorrow see's the peak of the heat followed by a cool off to something more traditional for August then there should be absolutely no complaints.


Its been exceptional. A bit like the world cup recently its united people. Its been a feel good summer but like everything it has to end at some time.


A double dip at the weekend and early next week before a re-build in pressure from mid week seems likely. Thereafter its anyones guess but for me there is enough evidence across the NWP to suggest a relocation of HP to our west. This would result in cooler nights and fresher days. It would also see off any challenge to eclipse 1976 also.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

David M Porter
26 July 2018 08:41:04

FWIW, I sense there is still a bit of indecision in the models wrt the behaviour of the atlantic low early next week and exactly what our weather does after we have got through tomorrow and the weekend.


From what I'm seeing, the UKMO 144hr chart looks a bit more promising for an earlier return of HP next week than the ECM and GFS op charts do at the same timeframe. One thing I have long believed is that when there is even the slightest disagreement between the big three as soon as T+144, then all developments going on from there are certainly not nailed on.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
SJV
26 July 2018 08:47:25


 


The GFS was right about the system for Sunday - when the UKMO was saying largely dry away from the NW up until yesterday - now the GFS has flipped considerably both in terms of OP and ensembles WRT to late next week and going forward.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


GFS operational a notable cool outlier later next week with a significant proportion of the suite very warm/ hot. Still settled though.


ECM also a cool outlier later in the run. This is far from nailed down, as David alluded to above. The form horse is clearly a return to a high pressure dominated outlook from mid next week.

Brian Gaze
26 July 2018 08:50:49


 


GFS operational a notable cool outlier later next week with a significant proportion of the suite very warm/ hot. Still settled though.


ECM also a cool outlier later in the run. This is far from nailed down, as David alluded to above. The form horse is clearly a return to a high pressure dominated outlook from mid next week.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


It's also worth remembering there is a strong signal for warm and dry weather to predominate until the end of October. That obviously doesn't mean there won't be cool and wet periods mixed in.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Saint Snow
26 July 2018 08:59:07


 


GFS operational a notable cool outlier later next week with a significant proportion of the suite very warm/ hot. Still settled though.


ECM also a cool outlier later in the run. This is far from nailed down, as David alluded to above. The form horse is clearly a return to a high pressure dominated outlook from mid next week.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


Absolutely. The mad heat is missing, but temps of 22-24c are absolutely fine with me as long as it's dry, settled and mostly sunny.


The above is exactly what the BBC has been showing the past couple of days and still shows (well into Aug). The Met Office continues (in its latest update at 01.09 this morning) the theme of generally settled, sunny and warm with just the odd blip.


Sure, there's the occasional run that brings less settled and wetter conditions at various times, but these remain in the minority. Not saying it won't change, but at the moment there's plenty of reasons for optimism, even if the hot temps aren't there.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
xioni2
26 July 2018 08:59:43

FWIW the ECM op run looks like it was the coolest of the entire suite by the end of the run.

For London the ensemble mean 850 temp at 240 hours is 14C. The op run is about 8C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed, little change to the EC and it keeps suggesting a ~70% chance of very warm and mostly anticyclonic conditions for approx 3-12 Aug.


Today's EC46 should also remain blocked and warm for all of Aug.


 


 

SJV
26 July 2018 09:09:17


 


 


Absolutely. The mad heat is missing, but temps of 22-24c are absolutely fine with me as long as it's dry, settled and mostly sunny.


The above is exactly what the BBC has been showing the past couple of days and still shows (well into Aug). The Met Office continues (in its latest update at 01.09 this morning) the theme of generally settled, sunny and warm with just the odd blip.


Sure, there's the occasional run that brings less settled and wetter conditions at various times, but these remain in the minority. Not saying it won't change, but at the moment there's plenty of reasons for optimism, even if the hot temps aren't there.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Going back to the MetO further outlooks - they have always stated the likelihood of short-lived incursions of unsettled weather at times, with the focus of any significant rainfall further north and west, with areas further south and east less affected (rain lighter/ showery etc).


This is pretty much what will be transpiring this weekend. We're in one of those unsettled 'blips' and by mid-next week conditions settle down again.


What I have an issue with is the constant need by Ian and Beast to assume every time we get a bit of Atlantic influence it MUST mean a pattern change. It's extremely naive and not supported by the output currently.

Saint Snow
26 July 2018 09:16:39

 


Going back to the MetO further outlooks - they have always stated the likelihood of short-lived incursions of unsettled weather at times, with the focus of any significant rainfall further north and west, with areas further south and east less affected (rain lighter/ showery etc).


This is pretty much what will be transpiring this weekend. We're in one of those unsettled 'blips' and by mid-next week conditions settle down again.


What I have an issue with is the constant need by Ian and Beast to assume every time we get a bit of Atlantic influence it MUST mean a pattern change. It's extremely naive and not supported by the output currently.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


Not sure what's happened with Beast. He used to be one of the better posters but over the past year or two has turned trollish.


Ian's always been an attention-seeking tool.


 


Incidentally, the Met Office longer range update is interesting:


Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly. Western and southern areas will often be dry, sunny and very warm, but with the risk of some cloudier periods with rain at times, or heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further north and east drier and more settled conditions are expected to be more dominant, although with the ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out at times.


Not bad at all, but places the drier/more settled weather further north & east. Suggests a high pressure placement to the N or NE, with occasional inroads by fronts from either the south or south west.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
SJV
26 July 2018 09:26:28


 


Incidentally, the Met Office longer range update is interesting:


 


Not bad at all, but places the drier/more settled weather further north & east. Suggests a high pressure placement to the N or NE, with occasional inroads by fronts from either the south or south west.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


That is interesting and is at odds with predictions of high pressure centred to the W of the UK. The MetO's outlook definitely more supportive of hot incursions.

Saint Snow
26 July 2018 09:27:48


 


That is interesting and is at odds with predictions of high pressure centred to the W of the UK. The MetO's outlook definitely more supportive of hot incursions.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


I was quoting from the 9th-23rd August period, btw


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
26 July 2018 09:28:50


Rob is that just me? I thought id check that location (Strange location)?


https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/54%C2%B000'00.0%22N+1%C2%B042'00.0%22E/@54.0000031,-2.7824216,6z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d54!4d1.7


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 


Yes I must have misclicked and hit the map instead of the "Londres" link - easily done on mobile!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Shropshire
26 July 2018 10:10:55

The 6z has the next Atlantic Low further SE meaning another bout of wind and rain on Tuesday. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
26 July 2018 10:13:42

Sunday looking to end the drought in style for everybody now. The models really have made a complete mess of this system.


 


We're going to the zoo for my daughter's birthday on Sunday - I really didn't think we would have to worry about wet-weather gear! 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Shropshire
26 July 2018 10:19:58


Sunday looking to end the drought in style for everybody now. The models really have made a complete mess of this system.


 


We're going to the zoo for my daughter's birthday on Sunday - I really didn't think we would have to worry about wet-weather gear! 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


To be fair to the GFS it hasn't made a mess of it, for a good couple of days it has been showing heavy rain moving slowly East. The METO have only reacted this morning by way of their text forecast.

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Shropshire
26 July 2018 10:22:37

The old Gooner maxim of anything beyond T120 is JFF certainly looks true this morning,  the runs - hinted at last night - show an astonishing volte face to unsettled conditions. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
26 July 2018 10:24:18


 


To be fair to the GFS it hasn't made a mess of it, for a good couple of days it has been showing heavy rain moving slowly East. The METO have only reacted this morning by way of their text forecast.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


It was showing the rain missing my area. Only the last two or three runs have brought it in.


 


By T168 we're almost looking at a traditional zonal pattern, blocking rapidly evaporating. Very poor performance by all the models which appeared fairly unanimous on a decent settled spell taking hold.


That 12Z suite yesterday had one straggler that was way out of line with the others. That would have to be the trendsetter!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
andy-manc
26 July 2018 10:27:28

Well at least it looks like everywhere will get to join in with the rain this time round and not just us in the NW. Does look like the messiest spell we have had for quite a while though. Hopefully we can pull out of the other side quite quickly and get back to more settled sunny conditions which doesn't sound out of the question. Wish it wasn't spread over the weekend but we have had our fair share of good weekends. 

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