One thing also worth keeping an eye on is the overnight minimum temps the current July record is 23.3c in  St James's Park, London set way back in 1948

That could be broken over the few nights

Arpege has updated now and lost the extreme temperatures for Friday. Now 34 max tomorrow and 33 Friday with the hot air pushed away more rapidly. Also looks a lot drier for the southeast on Fri now but shows some storms in central southern parts tomorrow.

Meanwhile GFS has upped the heat a bit, giving 34C on Friday.

What a difference 24 hours makes.

Yesterday's 6Z chart for 12Z Saturday:

And today's:

Wet for just about everyone, where yesterday there was nothing. Big change in a short time.

Well comparing op runs on the 6z doesn't mean a lot without ensemble backing.

Rain is much needed but I am concerned that we will largely miss out again before another settled pattern emerges

GEM does it too. 

And UKMO brings the low across the UK too, although not to quite the same extent.

Yes it certainly looks like following the same pattern, just a shame if the drought records get spoilt by a badly forecast low incursion. 

Plume incoming, could be a hot run.

Pretty small difference actually in terms of large scale pattern 

But big difference obviously for local details, which only shows how easy to change back.

That right as the 15-16C uppers line take all day Friday so there enough time for real heat to achieved before the cooler air arrive early on Saturday morning.

That's a hell of a hot blob of air to our south, if it can just get a bit of oomph to head north! Even this chart would give low 30s to much of the south.

On this run even the Yorkshire Dales will hit 26C+ on the 5th, not quite what I want for a full day of exertion!

Exactly, inshore waters in the Solent region getting into the low twenties during the summer months are surprisingly not that uncommon. I've never seen them as high as 25C but 21/22C yes.

It's currently 21.4C @ Bramble Bank.

Here is a link to Bramblemet sea temps - through here there are links to a few other stations in the Solent region.

http://www.bramblemet.co.uk/(S(psesho3d0r2dlf55cg352n55))/default.aspx

Yes, the drought is coming to an end. In the past, when the pattern breaks, it stays broken

I'm not convinced the high will build back again. John Hammond may be correct

I direct you to this thread: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19077

A flick through 06z GEFS members for Wednesday next week indicates around 90% have a strong build of high pressure back over, or to the east of, the UK. Given the confidence of the forecasters' predictions of heat building again next week, it's a fair assumption that quite a few other models' ENS members are showing a similar pattern.

See my post in the Summer Chat thread - MetO going for 37c in parts of SE on Friday, 30% chance of all-time UK temperature record being broken, dependant on cloud amounts.

Again, no actual evidence to back up this  There is support across the models for a re-build of high pressure yet you think one bog-standard area of low pressure that may only give some showery rain to eastern areas is going to break the pattern 

Oh to be a mod again 

Some astonishingly hot runs in the 6z update. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Very hot one and not sure why they put too much precips as it was correct less before but anyway it won;t happen as i seen those freak high precis not coming off.  In order to get record high temps next week it need to stay dry so the ground can support higher temperatures.

When you look at the global temperature maps shown on the front of today's tabloids it's no wonder really we're seeing such an extroadinary heatwave this Summer. A sign of things to come methinks.

Another 1c rise from the Met office for Friday the July record would go with that getting oh so close to the all time record as well