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00z builds the heat again especially the end of next week with high pressure once again taking control:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_165_1.png
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
Notice how huge HP cell is? This can last for a very long time and this time to allow nationwide settled period.
Big change. Heatwave? What heatwave?
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
From White M link i think we heading for June set-up with nationwide warm to very warm days so I happy to take that as long it give August a good month as well.
Yes I just looked at the ensembles and thought the same. All about HP orientation as it also looks pretty dry. Reminds me a bit of August 1983 which followed that blistering month. It was very dry and pleasant ;)
That one? http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
The extreme 850s look less likely his morning but most of those members still give some pretty summery weather with HP largely in control. I’ve noticed when looking at individual members that what look like starkly different runs on the 850 chart can often be pretty similar, just subtle changes in the orientation of the high that cause wild swings in the upper air temps.
Very unlikely to get to 100 now, but still looks largely dry and warm for the south at least.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
100F was always unlikely. But some of the runs still showing temps up to 30C.
ECM mean once again better than the Op. not far off perfect summer conditions but no records for heat. Prob 30c the high for the south 25c further north.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Whilst a record would be good on paper - the above is much more pleasant for everyone.
There has been quite a lot of OT comments in here recently and people discussing other people rather than the weather. I've let it go but will now start deleting user accounts again.
The GEFS for Liverpool looking less dry than they were on the 0z (where Plymouth seems the driest, with Brighton & London not too far behind). Not exactly wet, but some nagging PPN spells.
I never feel as confident of the longer-term stability of a ridge from the AH. Rather have an in situ high over the UK (or, better, slightly to our East/NorthEast). But I guess the big spoiler in these circumstances is the behaviour and force of the Jet.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
wetter and cooler than previous ones :-(
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0
this will probably still be hot in the south but the extreme heat is staying well to the south, perhaps a bit like in winter when the extreme cold goes too far south as the jet overrides the block
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=0
Yes, would be very pleasant. hot in the south but not unbearable
If we're able to get back up to temps of between 25c and 30c after this blip I don't think anyone can complain in the slightest. As much as I'd like to break records.
Well that's ok. Extreme heat is a novelty, but I am sure the vast majority here would appreciate a shot at the best summer since 1976. We don't need EXTREME heat for summer to be wonderful.
Originally Posted by: moomin75
I agree I would it was when we had the summer beast from the East!
Very nice looking ukmo this afternoon , looks like it would get hot pretty quick after
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html
Looks a bit more along the lines of what led to the start of the late June/early July heatwave rather than the set-up we have had during this past week.
Ukmo ties in with the met office ten day forecast trend yesterday of high pressure building in from Scandinavia again.Very impressive looking block.
Originally Posted by: Argyle77
GEM also good GFS not so much