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Tom Oxon
29 July 2018 21:10:13

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_2.png


 


50C in Andalusia /Extremadura?

S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 July 2018 06:14:25

Crazy heat on the UKMO this morning 20c 850s by day 6.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
30 July 2018 06:18:40


Crazy heat on the UKMO this morning 20c 850s by day 6.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Ensembles show a heatwave for nearly a week then drop back to average as 2 days a go they were showing straight above average.  Still very dry from today onward so we can safely see first half of August being decent.

Ally Pally Snowman
30 July 2018 06:34:34


 


Ensembles show a heatwave for nearly a week then drop back to average as 2 days a go they were showing straight above average.  Still very dry from today onward so we can safely see first half of August being decent.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


 


Indeed, ECM not quite as hot as the UKMO at day 6 but would be low 30s for the south Thursday,  Friday and Saturday .


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
30 July 2018 07:03:46

Looks like the heat is back on later this week. Ironically the period from 26/07 to 06/08 may well play out almost exactly as the 16 day GEFS ensembles were showing 10 days ago. It's in the last week or so that they have chopped and changed.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Jiries
30 July 2018 07:34:31


Looks like the heat is back on later this week. Ironically the period from 26/07 to 06/08 may well play out almost exactly as the 16 day GEFS ensembles were showing 10 days ago. It's in the last week or so that they have chopped and changed.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


They often do that and correct it back again as it done many times before.  What gone wrong now is the rain we had yesterday overstayed it welcome too long as it supposed to clear away yesterday afternoon with clear skies over night and mostly sunny today onward but it remain humid, drizzle over night and this morning so that might hamper the heat amount with the ground very wet instead of bone dry this morning. 


Looking at the 00z charts and hope the wind direction to be from the continent to clear the humid air and cloudy weather away otherwise it will go wrong with the coming heatwave with lot of clouds around like the recent one did.

superteacher
30 July 2018 07:41:00


 


They often do that and correct it back again as it done many times before.  What gone wrong now is the rain we had yesterday overstayed it welcome too long as it supposed to clear away yesterday afternoon with clear skies over night and mostly sunny today onward but it remain humid, drizzle over night and this morning so that might hamper the heat amount with the ground very wet instead of bone dry this morning. 


Looking at the 00z charts and hope the wind direction to be from the continent to clear the humid air and cloudy weather away otherwise it will go wrong with the coming heatwave with lot of clouds around like the recent one did.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


A couple of dry days will soon dry the ground out. And in any case the ground was bone dry last time and we still had cloud forming.


Pressure looks higher this time though, which should inhibit cloud formation.

Hippydave
30 July 2018 07:58:58
Models have found a way back to heat since I last popped in I see. Given how much hot air is nearby any slight stall of LP to our West will serve to draw this up and any correction of the jet or HP North will too.

I like the GFS deep FI trend for more normal 850s but suspect nearer the time these will start showing a few peaks.

Be interesting to see how the rest of the Summer and September pans out - Might be a slow crawl back to typical, might be a continuation of the heat or could be one of those dramatic crashes to an early autumn. I reckon heat or maybe crawl more likely.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Polar Low
30 July 2018 08:01:22

Maybe for the s/e but thats not the truth for the rest of the uk Jires


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


 




 


Ensembles show a heatwave for nearly a week then drop back to average as 2 days a go they were showing straight above average.  Still very dry from today onward so we can safely see first half of August being decent.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Heavy Weather 2013
30 July 2018 08:10:36


 


They often do that and correct it back again as it done many times before.  What gone wrong now is the rain we had yesterday overstayed it welcome too long as it supposed to clear away yesterday afternoon with clear skies over night and mostly sunny today onward but it remain humid, drizzle over night and this morning so that might hamper the heat amount with the ground very wet instead of bone dry this morning. 


Looking at the 00z charts and hope the wind direction to be from the continent to clear the humid air and cloudy weather away otherwise it will go wrong with the coming heatwave with lot of clouds around like the recent one did.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Do you remember the blip just before August 2003. I think the Friday before it rained and temperatures were 17C.


Whats remarkable is how these events are unfolding to an almost identical timeline. Potential peak in heat around 9/10 August (if it comes off)

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
doctormog
30 July 2018 08:20:14


 


Do you remember the blip just before August 2003. I think the Friday before it rained and temperatures were 17C.


Whats remarkable is how these events are unfolding to an almost identical timeline. Potential peak in heat around 9/10 August (if it comes off)


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Is that a max of 9°C I see on Lewis?   http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_276_48.png 


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
30 July 2018 08:22:20
GFS ensemble shows a marked crash in 850s around 7-8 August although some keep the heat a bit longer and a couple start building heat again later on.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
30 July 2018 08:27:44


 


Do you remember the blip just before August 2003. I think the Friday before it rained and temperatures were 17C.


Whats remarkable is how these events are unfolding to an almost identical timeline. Potential peak in heat around 9/10 August (if it comes off)


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It was and there was many advancing azure sunny days before the great heat on 10th August so need to see skies clearing and drier air to come today to dry out the ground surface quickly enough since the heat coming back within few days.  Polar Low, I was referring my area and my new area to move to will be very dry run after yesterday.  

David M Porter
30 July 2018 09:39:58

Everyone on this thread is talking about a quick return to summer but I've just watched the latest BBC Week Ahead forecast from Lucy Martin and according to what she was saying, I see no signs of any decent summer weather returning to here in Scotland any time soon.

That forecast suggests that away from SE England (where it will be more settled), the week ahead is still likely to be changeable. On Monday and Tuesday, there are likely to be some bands of showery rain moving through and then, we have another Atlantic weather system coming in on Thursday to bring yet more rain which then clears by Friday to sunshine and showers.

Even going onto the following week, the general summary still has it rather cloudy here with temperatures no higher than around 21ºC in this part of the world. That to me, suggests that summer is not going to returning to this part of the country any time soon. From that, I have to conclude that those members who are suggesting that we have now 'had' our summer for this year may well have a valid point there.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Not so sure about that, John. This morning's GFS and ECM 00z op runs both build HP right over the UK quite strongly next weekend in a manner not dissimilar to what happened at the start of the late June/early July heatwave. Too early for anyone to be dismissing the chances of summer returning to us in Scotland yet, IMO.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin D
30 July 2018 10:27:32

The all time European record in real danger of going this weekend 48.0c to beat


138-582SP.GIF?30-0


Hungry Tiger
30 July 2018 13:02:36


The all time European record in real danger of going this weekend 48.0c to beat


138-582SP.GIF?30-0



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The temperature reached 48 °C (118.4 °F) in both Athens and Elefsina, Greece on July 10, 1977, setting the official European record high. There's also an unofficial record of the temperature climbing to 50 °C (122 °F) in Seville, Spain on August 4, 1881.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Scott
30 July 2018 16:22:11
Lived in Dubai a couple of years ago when it once got to 48C. It was utterly unbearable outside.
UserPostedImage
doctormog
30 July 2018 16:30:19

Lived in Dubai a couple of years ago when it once got to 48C. It was utterly unbearable outside.

Originally Posted by: Scott 


I went to Leiden a couple of years ago and it rained. I felt right at home.  Other than that it was beautiful. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
richardabdn
30 July 2018 16:44:41


 


Not so sure about that, John. This morning's GFS and ECM 00z op runs both build HP right over the UK quite strongly next weekend in a manner not dissimilar to what happened at the start of the late June/early July heatwave. Too early for anyone to be dismissing the chances of summer returning to us in Scotland yet, IMO.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Weekend looks like the third poor one in a row to me with the high set to bring depressing cloudy skies and cool temperatures, according to GFS, so nothing like late June/early July.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1263.html


I don’t mind if it doesn’t exceed 21C, as long as it’s sunny, even though we should be seeing higher temperatures than that in August. The lack of mid-20s readings over the past 20 years has been unprecedented.


What I do mind is a continuation of this cloudy unsettled rubbish which is ruining the second half of summer

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Retron
30 July 2018 17:01:13


The all time European record in real danger of going this weekend 48.0c to beat


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


FWIW, the 12z GFS actually has 50C over Portgual on Saturday. Dangerous stuff!


https://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018073012/126-582SP.GIF?30-0


(Note the white area next to the 49s.. it's a small area of 50C).

Leysdown, north Kent
David M Porter
30 July 2018 17:07:05


 


Weekend looks like the third poor one in a row to me with the high set to bring depressing cloudy skies and cool temperatures, according to GFS, so nothing like late June/early July.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1263.html


I don’t mind if it doesn’t exceed 21C, as long as it’s sunny, even though we should be seeing higher temperatures than that in August. The lack of mid-20s readings over the past 20 years has been unprecedented.


What I do mind is a continuation of this cloudy unsettled rubbish which is ruining the second half of summer


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


You seem to think we ought to expect a summer climate like that of the Med or Florida.


We shoudn't get anything unsettled as long as the HP builds over the country as indicated, should we? I accept it doesn't always mean brilliant sunshine but as long as it is dry, bright (if not especially sunny) and reasonably warm, I really don't care.


FWIW, the late June/early July heatwave started with a lot of high cloud at times here, but only for a day or so before the blazing sun started on the 24th and then lasted for a fortnight or so.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
johncs2016
30 July 2018 17:32:10


 


You seem to think we ought to expect a summer climate like that of the Med or Florida.


We shoudn't get anything unsettled as long as the HP builds over the country as indicated, should we? I accept it doesn't always mean brilliant sunshine but as long as it is dry, bright (if not especially sunny) and reasonably warm, I really don't care.


FWIW, the late June/early July heatwave started with a lot of high cloud at times here, but only for a day or so before the blazing sun started on the 24th and then lasted for a fortnight or so.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes, we have to recognise that this has still been a really good summer anyway even if the rest of this summer goes completely down the toilet pan (this is Scotland after all, and not somewhere in the Med or Florida) just in the same way that the winter of 2010-11 was remembered as being quite a cold and severe winter despite the fact that February 2011 was really mild.


That's why although it would be great if we got a decent August, it would be sheer greed in my book to actually expect that given how June and most of this month went.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
David M Porter
30 July 2018 17:47:45


 


Yes, we have to recognise that this has still been a really good summer anyway even if the rest of this summer goes completely down the toilet pan (this is Scotland after all, and not somewhere in the Med or Florida) just in the same way that the winter of 2010-11 was remembered as being quite a cold and severe winter despite the fact that February 2011 was really mild.


That's why although it would be great if we got a decent August, it would be sheer greed in my book to actually expect that given how June and most of this month went.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


The general model output at the moment gives me no reason to think that August will be a poor month; the GFS op runs for next week look pretty decent and this morning's ECM looked not too shabby either. I know that we can only look ahead about a week or so at the most and at the moment, that won't take us even as far as mid-August. However, the MetO 6-15 and 16-30 day updates seem to make reasonable reading at the moment for virtually the whole UK and they haven't  ever been far off the mark at any time this season so far.


What I see no indication of from the models is this supposed August washout that I believe ex-BBC forecaster John Hammond recently predicted.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
30 July 2018 17:54:23
Any comment on the UKMO? I didn’t see the 0Z run but I gather it was quite hot. The 12z doesn’t look like serving up any kind of prolonged settled spell to me.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
30 July 2018 17:59:30

Any comment on the UKMO? I didn’t see the 0Z run but I gather it was quite hot. The 12z doesn’t look like serving up any kind of prolonged settled spell to me.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It seemed to be rather at odds with both GFS and ECM this morning in that it didn't build heights over the UK to the extent that those models did by T144, and the 12z UKMO seems to go down a similar route while the GFS 12z builds the high right over the UK. ECM this morning seemed to follow in the path of GFS; hopefully it will do likewise this evening.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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