theweatheroutlook

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Arcus
30 July 2018 18:12:28

Any comment on the UKMO? I didn’t see the 0Z run but I gather it was quite hot. The 12z doesn’t look like serving up any kind of prolonged settled spell to me.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Scandi Spoiler low came more into play on the 12z. Small variations.


00z T+120:



12z T+120 (+12 cf 00z, ofc):


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
The Beast from the East
30 July 2018 18:13:38

GEFS all over the place but we could have a heatwave followed by a thundery breakdown. 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
30 July 2018 20:01:57
ECM also brings the spoiler low down midweek although signs of high pressure building back afterwards. Very little consistency between models at the moment, I still haven’t a clue what to expect from the weekend onwards in Yorkshire. Could be quite warm and summery or could be a wet, windy and cold few days. At the moment it seems to be heading more towards the latter option.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
superteacher
30 July 2018 20:24:07

ECM also brings the spoiler low down midweek although signs of high pressure building back afterwards. Very little consistency between models at the moment, I still haven’t a clue what to expect from the weekend onwards in Yorkshire. Could be quite warm and summery or could be a wet, windy and cold few days. At the moment it seems to be heading more towards the latter option.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


An interesting discussion over on NW regarding the set up. Models seem to be struggling big time.

LeedsLad123
30 July 2018 20:26:08
I'm not bothered about heatwaves but I'm hoping and praying that August isn't wet and cloudy. UK summers are dull enough as it is.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 July 2018 20:26:29

ECM means are a pretty good match for the Op. For  the south temps over 30c from Thursday  to Tuesday is not bad, then cooler but still dry and above average temps. Day 10 Azores high builds in again. All in all a very good run.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
colin46
30 July 2018 21:10:30

48c for southern Spain by the end of the week (a new record apparently).

shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Jiries
30 July 2018 21:30:18


ECM means are a pretty good match for the Op. For  the south temps over 30c from Thursday  to Tuesday is not bad, then cooler but still dry and above average temps. Day 10 Azores high builds in again. All in all a very good run.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That suit fine to me and depend how the ground dryness give the surface temps results v uppers outcome.   My 30C days tally so far now on the record matching 21 days in 2006 and then 6 days of +30C will add it up to 27 with possible getting 30 times by summer ends.

Justin W
31 July 2018 06:00:22
The ops showing a dry but cooler outlook than that shown last night. Mid 20s in the South I reckon.
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
31 July 2018 06:16:43

GFS op still remarkably dry in SE of UK over next 10 days but nearly normal service in NW



 


And still on course for record breaking temperatures in Portugal


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
cheddarman
31 July 2018 06:17:16
In cheddar July 2013 and 14 was sunnier than this July according to my solar panel and data . This June was also Sunnier than this July.
Retron
31 July 2018 06:25:06


And still on course for record breaking temperatures in Portugal


Originally Posted by: RobN 


The Saturday chart has a "50" on it, as opposed to just a few white pixels. Of course, you can't actually see it as it's white-on-white!


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018073100/114-582SP.GIF?31-0


The record potential was mentioned on the news on the radio this morning, saying it's looking like Portugal will beat the record from 1977.

Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 July 2018 06:44:50


 


An interesting discussion over on NW regarding the set up. Models seem to be struggling big time.


Originally Posted by: superteacher 


Weather for the week ahead hedging its bets, some model runs show a HP cell west of Ireland with cool northerlies across the UK, but others(fewer) with the HP cell over Denmark and hot southerlies with storms.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
31 July 2018 06:56:45
GFS Parallel looks explosive with a dartboard low engaging with the hot plume by Monday night.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
31 July 2018 07:13:21
Meanwhile ECM has the 0C isotherm into Scotland by 240 hours!

Roll a dice for August or consult the seaweed is my advice...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
31 July 2018 07:26:04

In cheddar July 2013 and 14 was sunnier than this July according to my solar panel and data . This June was also Sunnier than this July.

Originally Posted by: cheddarman 


The house I am moving in have solar panels and do they work well in winter sunshine regardless the temperatures? Just need to know.  Ensembles show hot then back to average with very little to no rain.

Brian Gaze
31 July 2018 07:30:33

Another blast of heat this week is nailed. Anything beyond that is a bonus for me. 



 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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White Meadows
31 July 2018 07:32:04
Who’s to say another heatwave won’t show up on the ensembles soon for mid month.
Last week this weekends heat was massively tempered back, almost disappeared at one point before resurgence a few days later.
Jiries
31 July 2018 07:37:32

Who’s to say another heatwave won’t show up on the ensembles soon for mid month.
Last week this weekends heat was massively tempered back, almost disappeared at one point before resurgence a few days later.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I expect another 1 or 2 more after this heatwave gone and 1 in September.  It always a good signs when the ensembles show average conditions which most cases will change to show another spike when time come nearer.  Ground very soggy now and since the hottest day is less than a week away I would see temps around 33-34C at best.

doctormog
31 July 2018 07:38:24

Meanwhile ECM has the 0C isotherm into Scotland by 240 hours!

Roll a dice for August or consult the seaweed is my advice...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes the colder air at that time point on the ECM op is quite marked on the deviation chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_34.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
superteacher
31 July 2018 07:39:41

Who’s to say another heatwave won’t show up on the ensembles soon for mid month.
Last week this weekends heat was massively tempered back, almost disappeared at one point before resurgence a few days later.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I think just about every possible solution is being shown from 7 days time. Models are struggling with something.

sizzle
31 July 2018 07:42:37

from what ive been watching seeing and reading forecasters are saying turning hot at the weekend but NO MENTION OF THE WORD HEAT-WAVE. could just be a hot snap. before things return to average

sunnyramsgate
31 July 2018 07:49:02
I reckon the models have set to default for standard August weather!! Very confused they are 😁
doctormog
31 July 2018 07:55:27


from what ive been watching seeing and reading forecasters are saying turning hot at the weekend but NO MENTION OF THE WORD HEAT-WAVE. could just be a hot snap. before things return to average


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


Yes, I would be amazed if any reputable outlet used the word “heatwave” based on current output. It does look warm to hot (in the SE) towards the end of the working week before much less agreement beyond then.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
31 July 2018 08:57:03

I reckon the models have set to default for standard August weather!! Very confused they are 😁

Originally Posted by: sunnyramsgate 


I was criticised for saying that once the pattern breaks it stays broken, but it appears to be the case. Still warm or hot in the south at times but rain chances increasing as the jet is now heading south


Good call from J Hammond it would seem. This morning's downpour was unexpected but a sign of things to come 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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