Yes , but that happened before the rain on the 29 th July. The original prediction turned out to be correct for this area yet wavered on amounts in runs afterwards.

 With a high possibility of a deep depression approaching from the s.w. Friday Saturday, i think amounts will rise.

Well, the output is evolving to bring a continuing summer for Southern Counties during August - the wettest summer month! Plenty of summertime weather to come here with some ''changeable'' interludes and welcome rain but far from unsettled.

It does look like an unsettled picture may develop for the North though.

We were at a wedding in Slane this weekend and it was refreshing that the temps were 10 degrees cooler with cloudy skies in the morning and sun in the afternoon. The green valleys and hills of Ireland remain ''green''

 

 

Dry and warm weather is the form horse this summer. Whatever the summer haters may wish for. 

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One day people will realise what we wish for and what the models show and the weather is will be are not connected or dependent on each other. I doubt it will be any time soon though! I wish for endless blue skies and sunshine but what the models show is a very warm to hot first part of the week in the south becoming closer to average with the risk of showers or rain.

The best weather in terms of warmth and dryness will (continue) be the further SE you go. Pleasant for much of the time, as is the norm in the SE in summer. What it won’t be is hot and anticyclonic throughout and some parts that really need the rain will likely get some.

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Indeed, I'd like it to be fresh (as in single-figure dewpoints), breezy and with patchy cloud through the summer, with temperatures preferably in the low 20s at most. If I'm lucky, I might get as many as 10 days like that per season.

As you say, no matter what we want the models are all that we have to go on. Downpour would do well to note the old adage, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" and alhough it's often the case that patterns persist and repeat, sooner or later something changes.

Talking of change, not much to be seen in the models really. Down here EPS is showing near-average temperatrues once the heatwave ends tomorrow and that extends all the way out to the 20th. The suite doesn't reach 30C at all now, although one member does come close!

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

GEFS, meanwhile, shows temperatures gradually rising from below- to slightly above-average over the course of the 12 days from Wednesday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3

Neither show any great sign of temperatures reaching what we've had down here recently, so as I've been saying for a while now heat fans should make the most of today and tomorrow! "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush", and so on.

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The weather down here is clearly set fair with lovely temps.

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Agree with what you’re saying and your interpretation of the model runs. 

However, I think some posters were just reacting to a handful of people who were writing off the rest of the summer and stating this would be the last hot spell of the season. It may well be the last hot spell, however as we all know, the extended outlook can and does change at relatively short notice. Small, incremental adjustments in the model output can manifest possible big changes in surface conditions over a period of time. So, as long as there is consistency in the outputs showing a further rebuilding of Azores ridging into the UK after the weekend, then who knows what that could mean in 10 days time? 

Yes, the deeper into August we go, the less solar energy we get and 30c becomes that little bit harder to achieve. However, SST’s also increase into early Autumn and the European continental landmass continues to heat up. 

All I think some people are objecting to is a certain weather event being “written off”. We all know the models aren’t CURRENTLY showing hot weather, however that doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t show something hotter again before the summer is over. 

Personally, as a heat lover, and living in the SE I’ll be more than happy with sunshine and mid-20s. 

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Yes, you’re absolutely right Dan and I am certainly not writing off summer yet. In fact I would not be surprised to see the temperatures back into the 30s in coming weeks in the south. (Before anyone asks that is nothing a forecasts!)

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Saturday looking wet, though perhaps the far SE will escape the worst

 

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Increasing signs of heat rebuilding in the South from 7/8 day's time.on the 06z..ridging through Europe throwing up some 15c uppers by day 10/11...all a long way out....but trends...

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But I thought summer was over? ..At least going by a few posts here over the weekend 😆

 John Hammond says it is virtually over, regarding long, hot dry spells unlikely to get very hot again this year. More sort of average . I am not in a position to disagree with that. 

 As far as i can see Models struggle with a marked change in type of weather either showing continued unsettled weather or settled weather and i mean long term spells. by the weekend it might be clearer if that is your lot regarding heat or more to come.

 

 

 

Of course it becomes more unlikely that very hot weather will return as the month progresses. He's literally only stating a statistical fact there!

He may be right, but I wouldn't be too sure.

GFS looks like a rinse and repeat of the last breakdown, some cooler days then warming up again in the south.

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Up in the Dales it was pretty hot yesterday even above 1200ft. I was out on a bike ride for 7 hours and have some interesting tan lines! Fresher today and the forecast is for a steady drop in temps to maxes of 15C by the end of the week. Hoping for some more warmth down south later next week.

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And Hammond, just like the many hopecasters on here, has no real idea. The hottest days ever in the U.K. were set in August, a month in which the continent warms up throughout. Yet listening to several posters on here (and it happens every year) you’d think that it was an autumn month. One reason why I use US-style/astronomical seasons is because summers can and do roll well into September. Indeed, September can often be the best month of the summer. 

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Meanwhile in the world of the models, ECM seems to be pretty unsettled into the weekend for most, and if FI is to be believed continues this unsettled theme (albeit warm on the 850s) with transient riding from the Azores High being under threat from lows dialling in from the NW.

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Id say it ends on the cusp of something very pleasant, at least for the majority:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0

 

 

 

 

Indeed, not awful and never overly cool but much more unsettled and “normal” compared with what we have/had. Perhaps the promise of something more summery at the end too.

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A perfect summary of the ECM run.

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Perhaps like 2006 with a relatively disappointing August followed by a glorious warm and sunny September. Although atm August 2018 is miles ahead of 2006. 

Well with my long planned camping trip starting on Saturday, We will need to take our wellingtons and waterproofs. Evidence enough that even out of the furnace of a roasting spell of weather, the Jacko clan will manage to pull the worst week of summer out of the bag as per tradition.

Some things I suppose never change ,,,,

Im going to be in Devon for the second half of next week and would take that ECM 12Z with both hands compared to some recent output. 

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Cheer up Jacko, at least it will be mild 🌻

GFS 18z looks hot returning for the south at least, perhaps back to 30

 

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