Yes looking like a few days of more unsettled weather with modest rainfall before a resurgence of high pressure in about 10daysor so...this summer is not finished yet.

A week is a long time in model terms and even in the Meto outlook they allude to returning heat potential especially as the treatment of unsettled Atlantic interludes has been over-bullish throughout. 

 

Albeit May is a spring month, but many parts of the UK had 3 great 'summer  months.

I'd prefer them to be the 3 actual summer months, but it's still been the best summer since 1995 IMO.

 

 

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Fairly good agreement on the general trend from the various operational runs at the moment - which is a return to more average conditions

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=

But the GFS ENS are a complete spaghetti mix after next weekend - with a slight bias towards above average conditions. We had this just before the last breakdown after which a warming trend reemerged. At this point impossible to say what will happen in the second half of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

There is a good amount of blue sky around, but with only a little bit of sunshine at times which means that a total of just 1.7 hours of sunshine has been recorded for today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 12 noon.

It's also not all that warm and so, the temperature at 12 noon was 17.6°C at Edinburgh Gogarbank, 18°C at Edinburgh Airport and 18.1°C at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

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ECM looking alright after the weekend and towards the middle of next week.

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Indeed, and it looks to be building a bit more convincingly on both this evening's and this morning's ECM runs than was the case this weekend.

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Sure is.

and as for the GFs that’s 4 control runs in a row showing uppers of between 15-20 degrees from 17th

Seems to be a growing trend.

Yes the 12z ECM op run is great...if you ignore days 3 to 9 

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I see you have decided to replace moomin as the forum's pessimist. 

From what I can gather even the unsettled spell of weather looks largely dry with average temperatures rather than anything particularly bad, with Saturday looking like the only poor day (and that is liable to change). Not a bad outlook imo.

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depends where you live of course. 

Not saying it’s plain sailing all the way for the south, some rain to come for sure. But huge improvements being shown and cross model hintings for some more heat later on. 

Pessimism? Really? Have you looked at the ECM run? 

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I wouldn't have responded to your post if I hadn't looked at it - and on the surface I think most days should be perfectly reasonable. The first chart you posted doesn't look bad at all - the second one looks a bit iffy though. 

At the very least, Wednesday-Friday look okay, with Saturday looking poor, and then Sunday looking better.

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Pretty grim for Scotland though, especially mid week.

they are used to it! 

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No, still not seeing any pessimism in my post suggesting that the middle of the run is not great. I guess you just misinterpreted my comment. 

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And I don't think anyone was suggesting that the middle of the run is great, but rather highlighting that the ECM run looks alright after the weekend - so your original comment was obviously rather pointless.

I'd save the trolling for people who are actually good at it, doc. 

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The 12z runs have generally "downgraded" the unsettled spell in southern counties. GFS12z op run suggests very little rain here in the next 10 days.

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Trolling? 

Yawn 

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Yawn indeed.

Anyway, the output after next weekend looks alright (and alright means alright, and not great, just in case anyone forgets what certain words mean and responds to something nobody said).

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Yes Brian worry for the extreme s/e very very dry here tried to dig today just a joke only cut my large grass 4 times since May also gfs spreads show little sign of rain for this area also T2 T Guess you could say rather warm at times it’s been a great summer here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

Agreed. The trend in the 12z runs from both ECM and GFS is definitely an upgrade for better conditions at least for the south. By +T240 in both models the recovery is complete and high pressure is once again in command.

In fact high pressure is never that far away from the SW approaches. There is no indication of the jet firmly re-establishing itself over the British Isles, no real indication of the jet digging south. Summer 2018 isn't over yet.

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Not over of course, just more normal after the next few days. From the GFS 12z op and quite representative: 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

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My Parents are in their 80’s and whilst a weird ‘seaweed’ style measure, i cut their grass for them as it slopes quite harshly. I’ve done it twice only this summer as it’s more akin to toast than grass. Anyhow, off topic. Apologies, just a very telling thing for me that personifies this wonderful wonderful summer so far.

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Successive ridges and troughs moving across UK from Wed for the next few days, any serious rain most likely in N & W, so looks like 'normal' summer conditions - though the fax charts do develop a more intense LP at T+120 in the SW approaches than other models and could give a summer gale.

Perceptions of the coming period could be good if the timing is right and the troughs go through overnight, or not, as the case may be.

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