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warrenb
07 August 2018 15:57:29
High pressure influence already looks more pronounced even by this Friday.
White Meadows
07 August 2018 16:32:07

High pressure influence already looks more pronounced even by this Friday.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Yep, summers coming back on track on this run... the trend continues!

xioni2
07 August 2018 16:42:37

The mid-term outlook remains the same, that of near average temperatures with a chance of rather warm conditions at times. The GEFS this morning is, if anything, fractionally cooler in the longer term than yesterday's output. EPS, meanwhile, shows a similar picture, just as it has done for days. The chance of a return to hot weather (as in highs of 6C above average) remains in the low single-figures percentage-wise. And no, before certain people say anything that's not hopecasting - merely what the models have, and continue, to show.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


True, but as you probably know the ensembles don't fully capture the true uncertainty so you cannot be confident that the probability of 30C next week is only 0-10%. 


 


 


 

Polar Low
07 August 2018 16:57:51

A very warm day for s/e/s by Sunday if gfs is to be believed 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

doctormog
07 August 2018 16:59:27
The 12z GFS op run indicates a large NW/SE split as shown by the rainfall totals. Very wet in parts of the NW and very dry across much of the Midlands. Others parts of the south, namely the SE, are wetter due to the rain that is forecast to clip that area but if it misses, which would not surprise me, much of the south will continue with a rather dry theme and pretty warm at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_240_18.png 
Polar Low
07 August 2018 17:05:18

indeed ukmo know looks very different for s/e on Saturday


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


 


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_240_18.png 

Brian Gaze
07 August 2018 17:05:50
On my phone but it looks like the breakdown doesn't really fire at all in the SE. Still a chance of 30C this Sunday based on the last 2 GFS ops.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
07 August 2018 17:07:41

On my phone but it looks like the breakdown doesn't really fire at all in the SE. Still a chance of 30C this Sunday based on the last 2 GFS ops.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Surely that is after the “breakdown” and is the “rebuild”. Unless the suggestion was the breakdown was a permanent one?


LeedsLad123
07 August 2018 17:30:15

GFS shows 6-7mm here by Friday next week. Considering we'll be past the halfway point of August by then, that's very little. Our August average is 58mm. We'd need a significant amount of rain in the final 10 or so days to bring us to average (which, of course, could certainly happen but looks unlikely).


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
07 August 2018 17:35:14

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0


Control also keen to build another pulse from the Azores


Saturdays rain doesn't seem to make it to the SE but thursday looking wetter instead.


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
07 August 2018 17:38:01

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=288&mode=1&carte=0


Control looks hot even for the northerners


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Polar Low
07 August 2018 17:50:40

Very dry those for London.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0


Maybe tad warmer, more agree about Sunday


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0


 


quote=LeedsLad123;1026030]


GFS shows 6-7mm here by Friday next week. Considering we'll be past the halfway point of August by then, that's very little. Our August average is 58mm. We'd need a significant amount of rain in the final 10 or so days to bring us to average (which, of course, could certainly happen but looks unlikely).


danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2018 18:19:53

ECM also going for a much better Saturday for England and Wales:


 


Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
LeedsLad123
07 August 2018 18:20:39

Hard to believe how much Saturday has changed on recent output. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
07 August 2018 18:23:14

ECM 120.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
07 August 2018 18:24:05

Good call last night on Twitter Brian


danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2018 18:26:22

ECM also onboard for a very warm Sunday:



Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
Polar Low
07 August 2018 18:27:09

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=120&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


 



ECM also onboard for a very warm Sunday:



Originally Posted by: danm 

Brian Gaze
07 August 2018 18:27:20


Good call last night on Twitter Brian



Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


The weekend is looking more and more interesting!


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Hungry Tiger
07 August 2018 18:38:47

On my phone but it looks like the breakdown doesn't really fire at all in the SE. Still a chance of 30C this Sunday based on the last 2 GFS ops.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 Heavens above - you must be joking.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
07 August 2018 18:39:44


ECM 120.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Definitaly a reload.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Arcus
07 August 2018 19:00:36


 


Definitaly a reload.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


A very quick heat reload caused by LP to the west squeezing up to transient HP. Which is followed by LP coming through again. ECM 12z is the usual summer fayre.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
superteacher
07 August 2018 19:03:08
Big differences for next week between ECM and GFS, after they were pretty much in agreement yesterday.
Downpour
07 August 2018 19:35:40


 


Definitaly a reload.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


lol. The weekend looking up! Warm and dry is the form horse in the epic summer of 2018!


Chingford
London E4
147ft

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