Indeed, looks pleasant in S England up to the point where FI sets in after which more active troughs approach from the Atlantic (ECM has a locally intense depression off Scotland at T+192). But it looks to me more like a 'traditional summer', with the south enjoying generally fine weather and the north (esp NW) being brushed by passing LP. IIRC this June the HP covered all the UK.

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Some seriously hot ensembles showing their heads now from GFS.  ECM also very warm in the south but less settled.

 

 

 

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Indeed; and not exclusively the south. ECM has the 564 dam line Cumbria to N Yorks by next Wednesday:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/120_thickuk.png?cb=264

and GFS op, although high in the pack, puts many back in hot conditions late on:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_276_uk2mtmp.png?cb=918

Combine both outputs with the ENS from GFS and it's clear that the models, at least, believe it's far too early to call an end to summer proper.

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So it looks as though the MO has come down on the side of a warm and dryish summer continuing for the foreseeable - that ties in with the Met Office longer range forecast. Yet again, the current switch to cooler and unsettled weather is but a blip in this long, hot summer (for central and SE England at least).

Just as an anecdotal aside, where we live, we still have not seen any rainfall other than the odd spot, since early June. For the Midlands at least, getting some rain has been a hit and miss affair, since our daughter who lives a mere 20 miles away, has had several bursts of heavy rain showers in the past few days. So localised heavy showers has been the only rain in this region for some time.

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Every time Beast posts his 'end of summer' posts the output trends warmer and drier. It's uncanny 

Going by the output this morning 30C looks possible in the south on multiple days. 

Then may he continue to do so, until mid October. That should do it.

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Good post, amongst many this morning😀. A bulk of the evidence seems to be pointing towards the achievement of a great summer of settled weather, particularly away from the far northern and western fringes. Though if a June easterly type sets up later in the month then the N W edges could see out meteorological summer in style. Great output for fans of warm settled sunny and mostly dry summer weather. 🤠👍

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One of these days though, he will be right.

In any case, we have only just over three weeks to go, before summer will technically be over anyway because at that time, we will then be into September and the start of the meteorological autumn.

Even now in what is supposed to be an 'unsettled' spell of well, we are still continuing to see downgrades on that on the model output. During the last couple of days for example, we were supposed to see heavy showers and yet, it was completely dry during those days with yesterday even turning out to be sunny, and not any cooler than average for the time of the year.

Now, tomorrow which was originally supposed to be a wet day, is now actually looking quite good as the approach of that next weather system has now been delayed until Sunday. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if the wet weather which we are supposed to get from that is either downgraded in the model output, or ends up not amounting to as much as what the models have indicated.

That in turn, is just typical of how this summer has gone.

 

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 Maybe more like this which ties in with current Met Office forecasts

 Surely rather far ahead to have a lot of accuracy ?, dont know the outcome of this weekend yet

The trend to warmer uppers is well supported and at short notice. Of course conditions at 2M will be highly affected by cloud cover so extrapolating increasing uppers can have variable results as we head away from solar maximum. It won't be cold though.

The extreme heat may have gone (for now) but summer is still very much in evidence for many.

The mean 850Hpa temperature at 144 hours shows a comfortable lazy WSW'ly August 2009 set up. Warm to very warm in the south. Above average temperatures elsewhere with rain occasionally brushing the north at times.

Despite an awful lot of negativity in here what must be remembered is that it is 10th August and we are still ahead of 1976 in terms of average temperatures !  With the westerly influence the cool down will begin in earnest, however the challenge is still on if we get a week or so of warm sector conditions keeping overnight temperatures high followed by a heat wave at the end of the month.

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Indeed, I think some people are looking at 15C 850s and assuming a hot spell as a result - which would be the case if we were still under the heatwave pattern, before the heatwave broke.

As you say, however, there's likely to be more cloud around and as we approach 8 weeks since the solstice the sun is now having somewhat less of an effect on heating; those looking for hot weather would rely more on importing heat than cooking up our own.

The 0z EPS suite shows this well:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

The operational run has a clear zonal "sine wave" effect, flitting between very warm and cool conditions at 850. (The same "sine wave" effect is visible in the mean, albeit to a much lower degree).

The T2Ms, however, differ far less, ranging from 21 to 24 - the average to rather warm conditions that I've been going on about for the best part of a week.

That doesn't preclude the odd warm or even very warm day, but of note is the fact that even the 90th percentile only reaches 26C.

I wouldn't rule out the chance of an odd 27 or 28, even, but that would be the exception rather than the rule.

Like it or not, the pattern has changed away from our blocking high and heat-hounds will need to make the most of any brief ridges that pop up.

 

 

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Main thing this morning runs show some warm to very warm days and like to buy time to see it continuing to late October with temps over 20 to a occasional 30C or so hot days up to early September.  Unlike last year 7 months Autumn if we can have the blocking high persist to November as it will be a shortest Autumn possible and get winter early and on time.  Today dreadful boring shower set-up that remind me of very poor summers at least only one off and one day to occur before it never come back for rest of August.  

Agreed. If the month is to turn predominantly westerly key to keeping the warmth at hand and the challenge for 1976 is to keep a tropical maritime influence going with high pressure relatively close to the south to keep rain bearing fronts and resultant daytime suppressing temperatures at bay. Sea Surface temperatures will work in our favour of allowing minimums of 15-16c meaning that daytime maxes of around 22c are all that is needed to keep us in contention.

We are treading a fine line though. Any polar maritime influences on the back of depressions will quickly change the feel of the month. Today being a prime example. Min 9c. Max 19c with squally showers.

A fascinating month that completes a remarkable summer. 

As you say a quick autumn like 1995 followed by the arrival of winter on 1st December would be the icing on the cake. 

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Why do you want a quick Autumn? To me Autumn is one of my favourite seasons. I love the season of mists and mellow fruifulness, the changing colours of the trees, the acorns falling, the cooler mornings with perhaps a grass frost on the back lawn as the sun comes up. The ripening blackberries in the hedgerows. A sign of Winter to come perhaps. Bring it on! Let's have an early start this year.

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More often than not, an early autumn means a miserable unsettled, cool, wet August and September. That was basically what we had last year and it was tedious to say the least. I like autumn, as long as its the pleasant settled variety. What you describe seems to be more along the lines of a nice high pressure system sat on top of the UK in October, and that really is the only time those conditions are possible.

Until then, a continuation of summer through August and September, before switching to a nice settled and autumnal October is fine by me.

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We're talking about autumn in the UK, not the United States. 9 times out of 10 you won't be seeing the sun coming up because it will be cloudy and raining.  There's also a good chance what limited colours we do experience will be blown away by a deep Atlantic low.

Some people really do have a very idealistic view of autumn in this country.

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Another good GFS run out to next Friday so far for the south, still looking mainly unsettled further north. We’re still looking odds on for a N/S split to develop from Tuesday onwards with high pressure to the SW ridging quite extensively at times across southern parts of England and Wales with some warm sunshine and lighter winds. Low pressure always close to northern Scotland with breezy, showery weather never far away. 


Similar UKMO to the GFS with the N/S split developing from Tuesday onwards.

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Ensembles are staying above average for London, with further swings of Heat.
Met office still prefers a warm/ very warm end to the month and even mention of hot conditions into September.
The warmth-whingers will have to wait til next month or even October for any true sign of cool wet & dank conditions. At least for the south and east.

Basically a big fat high pressure sitting over the U.K. is the best pattern in every season, notwithstanding a bit of December fog. Centred somewhere between Dogger Bank and TWO member Four.

I’d gladly trade beasts, plumes, northerly outbreaks and February Bartletts for a big fat anticyclone squatting over us 12 months of the year.

ECM this evening continues to give us the warm zonality which seems to be this August’s form horse and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the back to school season’s new look as we head into September. Setting up for a sudden beastly switch in December.

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So today and yesterday weren't cooler/wetter/dank weather for the south east? Bizarre. 

I said last Saturday (after some others' postings of ppn charts for this week that showed zero or minimal rainfall totals for the week ahead in the SE) that you need to look at the synoptic charts, not just the 850s or GFS ppn charts. I posted that it looked ripe for rain/convective rainfall for many parts. I was advised (and I use the term very loosely) that the runs were dry.  Well, some of us live and learn I guess.

It isn't about warmth-whingers or agenda-seekers (I'd love to see a late blast of warmth), it's about reading all aspects of model output and taking them into account without an agenda.

 

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ECM follows a similar trend to the GFS and UKMO with the N/S split from Tuesday onwards, with signs of some very warm air from the continent infiltrating into the south again next Saturday. Until then, standard summer fare with the warmest, driest, sunniest conditions in the south whilst the north is more prone to cooler, wetter weather with LP anchored to the N/NW of Scotland.

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 I just read that Met Office forecast and the last line is..

 However, there is small chance that the current changeable conditions could continue with rain at times and temperature remaining around average.

Updated: 14:31 on Fri 10 Aug 2018 BST

 So at present they are keeping their options open.

 

 

The art of a good forecaster - Keep your options open! 

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