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scillydave
11 November 2018 21:34:40


GloSea update has just been issued. The mild signal has now gone completely and it favours below average 850s in the south with a positive pressure anomaly to the north of the UK. Other seasonal models from national forecasting centres offer support so perhaps the Met Office will start talking up the prospects of a cold winter.  


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Forgive me if I'm misinterpreting the charts linked above but don't they show a 40-60% chance of above average 850s and a 40-60% chance of below average 850s. That doesn't seem like a strong signal either way to me. Also the 2m temps on those charts show a 40-60% chance of above average 2m temps and only a 20-40% chance of below so on balance don't they signal mild for UK winter? Apologies if I've totally read them wrong!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
moomin75
11 November 2018 21:41:03


 


Good update I'd say Brian but far too early for me to get excited 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Way too early Marcus, but some of the signals are quite similar to 2010 (when of course, I was away in Australia and missed the whole lot).


And, yup, you've guessed it, I'm away for the first two weeks of December, so that is guaranteed snow for all! 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Hippydave
11 November 2018 21:47:31

Tonight's ECM is interesting, sort of. Big HP build at the end of the reliable and said HP then wants to move about without sinking off south eastwards, which is usually the form horse.


If nothing else the models seem to be slipping in to winter tease mode nicely - could be an early practice run in not getting carried away and remaining sanguine when it all collapses and GFS churns out endless SW'ly dominated rubbish


 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Whiteout
11 November 2018 22:18:09


 


Who are you kidding Marcus  ?


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


ditto lol 


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
some faraway beach
11 November 2018 22:28:43


 


Forgive me if I'm misinterpreting the charts linked above but don't they show a 40-60% chance of above average 850s and a 40-60% chance of below average 850s. That doesn't seem like a strong signal either way to me. Also the 2m temps on those charts show a 40-60% chance of above average 2m temps and only a 20-40% chance of below so on balance don't they signal mild for UK winter? Apologies if I've totally read them wrong!


Originally Posted by: scillydave 


Looks to me like:

850 hpa: 40-60% above-normal, 0-20% normal, 20-40% below-normal


2m temps: 20-40% all three categories


It's not totally clear, owing to to the size of the pixels, but that looks the story for most of the British Isles.


The fact that there's a signal for above-normal temps one mile up in the atmosphere, but not at ground level, suggests the models are generating more in the way of frosty/foggy high pressure over the top of us than snowy northerlies. Which is fine by me. Basically any model output which thinks there's only a 33% chance of temps on the ground being above normal is worth banking imo.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Steve Murr
11 November 2018 23:41:06
Tonight sees the first steps towards a retrograde akin to Dec 2010- / Dec 1962

This is because the High pressure creates so much reverse flow alligned NW towards Greenland the jet just gets blasted upwards over the pole...

I did highlight this my dedicated thread weeks ago- starting to see step 1 next week with record breaking high pressure developing towards higher lattitudes....

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
12 November 2018 05:21:04

Kudos to the GFS 00z run👍😀.


Big Northern Europe SE Central Norwegian Sea and Siberian Blocking High Pressure- steering Low Pressure way up North then way SE then pushing into the High Pressure then the cold Arctic and Siberian Air meets and affects the North and NE Europe third and which steadily is forecasted to migrate West through Central NE Europe E Europe then UK NW Europe W Europe as well.


Major displacement of NW and N Atlantic and Arctic Norwegian Sea NE Canada and Greenland PV Low Pressure areas that are swayed and bashed about away from the usual tracks, allowing UK and Europe to see major drop in temperatures to average and below average after the 17th November et all.


Aha welcome back Steve...😀❄️🌫☀️.


NAD Shutdown, as Siberian N Europe blocking intensifies and develops full set blocking.🌨👍😆.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
12 November 2018 05:31:57

Tonight sees the first steps towards a retrograde akin to Dec 2010- / Dec 1962

This is because the High pressure creates so much reverse flow alligned NW towards Greenland the jet just gets blasted upwards over the pole...

I did highlight this my dedicated thread weeks ago- starting to see step 1 next week with record breaking high pressure developing towards higher lattitudes....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Thanks Steve,  yeah that is looking very evident on the GFS 00z run and yes the Northern Blocking High stretches from Europe NE Atlantic and E Europe and Siberia as well as West Russia and also stretches it’s left wing across Greenland- derailing the Polar Jetstream system.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Heavy Weather 2013
12 November 2018 05:59:13
Almost spat my tea at looking through the 0z run.

Cold feed starts as early as 192hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_192_2.png 

Yes still FI in relative terms, but the ensembles show support.

Great run


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 November 2018 06:33:36


 


Thanks Steve,  yeah that is looking very evident on the GFS 00z run and yes the Northern Blocking High stretches from Europe NE Atlantic and E Europe and Siberia as well as West Russia and also stretches it’s left wing across Greenland- derailing the Polar Jetstream system.


Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


Good stuff Laiq, nice cold ramp from Steve M, and with Brian G yesterday things look positive at the moment for cold fans. 3 or 4 -10c gefs as well for London this morning


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
marco 79
12 November 2018 07:32:54
Ens still trending colder from 21st...Control and Op showing milder solution...What is quite stark are the lack of Ens showing no rainfall right through the next 14 days....remarkable for Nov...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
roadrunnerajn
12 November 2018 07:53:36
I think a good motto at the moment would be.. Steady as she goes...
There are some very promising charts for later this month with High pressure blocking on nearly all of them. Let's hope it doesn't sink south and set up home over SE Europe for the winter....
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Brian Gaze
12 November 2018 08:11:25

There was a tech glitch last night which stopped the 18z GEFS completing on TWO and that held up the 00z set. Nonetheless, they're quite interesting to say the least.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
12 November 2018 08:38:08
Lots of spread on the ensembles still. A short sharp cold snap early-mid next week is the form horse with a return to average temps thereafter.
Solar Cycles
12 November 2018 08:39:56
The signal for Northern blocking continue this morning, tentative steps yes but heights appear to be slowly retrogressing towards Greenland in the outer reaches of FI. A lot will depend on how much energy goes into the Norhtern arm of the jet whilst this attempt at retrogression takes place. Interesring tiems ahead and shades of 2010 in the output.
ballamar
12 November 2018 09:45:28

Lots of spread on the ensembles still. A short sharp cold snap early-mid next week is the form horse with a return to average temps thereafter.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


what does form horse mean?

moomin75
12 November 2018 10:23:01


 


what does form horse mean?


Originally Posted by: ballamar 

A bit like Shergar  He was a form horse and never returned.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Maunder Minimum
12 November 2018 10:27:58

Lots of spread on the ensembles still. A short sharp cold snap early-mid next week is the form horse with a return to average temps thereafter.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I shall stick my neck out and predict that something similar to 2010 is on the cards - all the signals are now falling into place and northern blocking will be the determining factor.


New world order coming.
nsrobins
12 November 2018 10:59:41
A gradual change from dry and mild to dry and cool still looks likely from midweek into next week, with 2m maxes down to the +5 mark in places next Tues. A low dp too with the continental flow.
For a ‘2010’ type scenario we then need retrogression - and that is still only a hint at this stage.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
12 November 2018 11:10:20

A gradual change from dry and mild to dry and cool still looks likely from midweek into next week, with 2m maxes down to the +5 mark in places next Tues. A low dp too with the continental flow.
For a ‘2010’ type scenario we then need retrogression - and that is still only a hint at this stage.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed, and for retrogression - or even for the high pressure to hold position - we need some energy from the jet to be on a different trajectory. So far there's been scant evidence of energy going south and relying on it taking a loop into the Arctic and dropping down into Scandinavia tends to be very low probability IMO.


All the same, at least we have charts offering something different to the usual westerly flow.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
12 November 2018 13:48:50


 


what does form horse mean?


Originally Posted by: ballamar 

The most probable outcome. 

ballamar
12 November 2018 13:57:44


The most probable outcome. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


 


as in the number of ensembles and not personal opinion?

roger63
12 November 2018 14:23:50


 


For comparison.Nov 22nd 2010


 

SEMerc
12 November 2018 14:41:57

JFF, of course. However, this is an interesting little link showing snow advancing across Western Europe and into the UK.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=16&mode3h=0&runpara=1&carte=0&runpara=1&

White Meadows
12 November 2018 14:46:06


 


 


as in the number of ensembles and not personal opinion?


Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yep. Follow the white line... illustrates the point. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Maybe they should add a ‘personal opinion indicator’ on the chart but I doubt it would be much use. 

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