NAO forecasts looking promising:

With all the talk of 2010, it's worth comparing/contrasting what the models were showing in their runs on this day in 2010 for a bit of fun:

For example, the ECM 12z run of 12th November 2010 clearly shows the potential:

T+144:

T+168:

T+192:

T+216:

T+240:

Some very measured posts in here. :-)

I am interested in the output, as we have gone from a murky UK SE’ly high to a more potent easterly. Intriguing to see such upgrades in the positioning of the high to allow a proper easterly flow. Hopefully a sign of things to come in the months ahead when we can tap into colder uppers.

As for retrogression up to Greenland - I see little real evidence of this as yet, only weak, tentative signs.

No real cold yet. 

Quite right Joe - hence my compare and contrast post above with what the runs were showing in 2010. Solid GH blocking was what was whetting the appetite back then.

We seem to be getting a good tease from 144hrs UKMO, and get from the GFS and ECMWF 12z run some chilly or cold or cool pooling via the Finland to NW Russia Diving PV Arctic Low, which then is sent quickly from Sunday T144 to cross N France and UK by the Sunday night and Monday to Tuesday November 19-20, with -5 at T850 hPa being shown, Monday may be the most interesting day...

Major Atlantic Jetstream displacement and shifting then to Greenland NE Canada and Svalbard and the Arctic to Norrh Norwegian Sea et all, as deep areas of Low Pressure are sent up North.  There is good North and NE Atlantic North and Central Europe and SE Central Norwegian Sea blocking high pressure shown on the mid to longer range T120 to T240 hours, they split to two at 192-240 hours on the ECMWF and I think GFS 12z was showing that as well.

This will need to be revisited come Sunday 18th and Monday the 19th November- we need to be careful and not get over excited.

12z ECMWF reduces that chilly cold UK easterly into a Cyclonic Liw By Tuesday 20th, over the UK while 12z GFS shows it as a longer lasting -5 at 850 hPa Scandy High Siberian Beasterly to occur over NW N Europe UK from Monday 19th to at least Wednesday 21st if not longer.😉😀🌍☀️🌨⛅️.

Not too much to add to most of the comments I guess - GFS ens still showing a solid signal for blocking in and around the UK, with this persisting pretty much to the end of the run. There's a lack of flat zonal fare on offer, which is nice at least. 

ECM shows a chilly and I would guess potentially showery blip between HP in it's FI section and is at least initially more keen on sinking the HP in to Europe after the Easterly phase - might reboot to an extent after that or we could just end up under cool but cloudy weather with HP nosing in from the West. Obviously goes without saying that's just the Op so no idea of the ens support.

Still there's clearly potential for something wintry to happen but that's all in deep FI and needs to start getting much closer before it's worth getting too interested imo. Maybe if we get 5-7 days down the line and there's still a decent signal for the HP to move to or maintain a cold inducing position it'll be time to get a teeny bit interested

Great post this. Important to keep a realistic view on the bigger picture before matters descend into hyperbole.

The ECM mean at 240 shows a persistent Scandi High extending westwards towards Greenland.

Game on I reckon.

A hearty welcome back for the 'pub run'

I agree entirely. Whilst the current output could evolve into an interesting and cold/ish scenario, both the North Atlantic and NH views look significantly different to how the Nov/Dec 2010 stellar spell developed. 

IIRC the 2009/10 and 10 cold spells were mostly reliant on blocking centred in the Greenland area. Since Feb this year the tendency has been towards Scandinavian centred blocking which is something we haven't really seen much of since the 1980s. 

IIRC the set-up that led to the great freeze we had from late November to late December 2010 was broadly similar to that which developed around mid-December 2009, which produced the month-long freeze we had that winter. I don't really remember any notable rises in pressure being indicated in any models runs in either winter along the lines of what is currently being modelled or indeed the one that led to the Beast from the East spell at the end of Feb/start of March this year.

In some ways, if it's a more protracted blocked spell you're after then repeated blocking to the E and NE (like we've been seeing) is more conducive to further blocking down the line. I always see Greenland HP spells as quite fragile in as much as they tend not to cause too much longer term damage at a stratospheric level. They tend to be more symptomatic of a warming having already happened.

A singnificant shift in the ensembles overnight towards cold:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Some of the runs are great with one touch -13 850s. Retron will be excited after touching on the rarity of sometime seeing -10 in the chats this early in the season.

However this plays out, it’s good to see high pressure wanting to be blocky while moving around. As ever, this could also means it sinks away. But this doesn’t feel like the form horse.

Some stunners in here this morning.  GFS  keeps getting better. Some similar  to late November 10!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

P11 the best

Here they are in their TWO  glory.  Snow rows up to 17!

Morning -

ECM close to the 2010 gravy train @ 168-240 this morning -

This block is stable / deep & pretty much unchallenged from the vortex-

A solid greenland / iceland high like 1962 / 63 is now appearing..

Infact - A snow event for the S/SE then deep cold knocking day 10/11

It is getting there (or heading in “the right direction “)and interesting from a winter weather fan’s point of view. Still out in FI but a few missing pieces (high pressure over Greenland) which were missing over the last few days are cropping up now. Worth watching the latter reaches of the models.

In the more reliable time frame things look quite settled and mild in next few days.

Was not expecting the ECM to be that good looks primed at day 10, exceptional output this morning. 

Agreed Steve, ECM is stunning