Yes the retrogression signal has certainly gone up a notch this morning.

Especially keen on the ECM, rather than the flabby Icelandic High of the GFS op.

Still no real cold shown in the reliable, so caution is required. 

Oh give over!

For the time of year, it looks interesting for cold lovers certainly, but to say the charts look like 1962-63 is beyond stupid to say the least. Your idiotic ramping really does get ridiculous sometimes.

You must have used a whole bottle of vinegar on your cornflakes this morning 

LOL, I guess sleep deprivation and reading nonsense don't go well together.

Unnecessary. By all means have an opinion, but no need for the attitude. We are not NWx and can do without it IMO.

Besides I for one value Steve’s input and enthusiasm - it’s all part of the seasonal entertainment on here.

Meteo group in the shape of BBC forecasts wants to spoil the fun with a big cold surge heading south into the Balkans and beyond, while we still have mild southerlies, foc ca 7 days away. But for coldies, once cold air is in place, it would then only need a shift in wind direction to move it this way.

The ensembles are getting colder but the snow row figures are still in FI. Don't get over-excited!

Me too , I know when SM pops up something could be brewing 

Sorry I didnt realise Stevie Wonder had joined the forum -

Have a look at ECM Day 10 & 01st Feb 1963 - then come back & make the same statement....

Agreed. Everyone is entitled to take someone’s posts with a pinch of salt - but there is no need to shout people down. 

The bit in bold seems strange given the ECM model output which shows winds from an easterly quarter after day 4/Saturday (as did the previous op run). In fact none of the major models show southerlies beyond the weekend.

ECM day 10 mean is pretty solid - Easterly all the way with heights building NW & the vortex edging SW into Northern Europe -
Very cold at the surface by then ~ 4-6c below ave ...

Final warnings and it's not even winter yet. I moved TWO to a PAYG server environment in October and the forum part makes me no money. Therefore I have a good incentive to start deleting your accounts even if you don't behave badly. Take heed. 

I wouldn't be getting too excited about a snow event in the SE just yet given the op has no support from the mean for pressure to drop that low

Early days yet and it could all go Pete Tong. However, the charts are fascinating and personally, I don't think it is a coincidence that we are in a deep solar minimum at the moment.

I remember a Radio 4 discussion when I was a teenager back in the early 70s and the topic of the discussion was the Maunder Minimum and the severe European winters which were associated with it. Even back in the 70s, they were drawing conclusions from that and the scientific evidence for such has only increased since then. Still not clear why there should be an effect, since total solar insolation only drops marginally during solar minimum - but two effects are noticeable - one is that UV reduces much more than other parts of the spectrum and the other is that cosmic ray penetration is much increased during solar minimum (as shown by 14C records in ancient and very old wood).

Why should reduced UV and enhanced cosmic rays be associated with northern blocking in the Atlantic (if those are indeed the drivers) - that is the question?

Just one other thing on this topic - it is not global temperatures which are hugely impacted by solar minimum, it is the regional effects which are noticeable, particularly in western Europe on account of the associated northern blocking.

Not even thinking about snow events just now. It’s the trends that matter and getting the pieces in the right place.

We are starting to see them fall into place. Trends are the most important factor at the moment.

Be ready. 😜

I know it is ridiculously early on at only 13th November. However, when I look at this morning's ECM run plus a few GFS op runs we have had at times in recent days, I do begin to wonder whether some of the speculation there has been in sections of the press over the last month or so about a cold winter may not have been the usual bog standard press speculation which we have become all to used to in recent times.

Time will tell of course, but to me, this is easily the most interesting model output I can remember seeing during any November since the lead-up to the severe spell that began at the end of November 2010.

Look at it this way: when you have a Polar view like this on ECM at the T+168 point which Steve mentions above, then at the very least we're going to have all sorts of upgrades/downgrades/potentials/disappointments over the coming days. No sign of the vortex that we're normally resigned to trying to shift at this stage. If you can't dream at this at day 8, when can you?

Is it finally time to get the winter duvet out of hibernation?