Cumulative ppt type on TWO here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=12&charthour=6&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

Remarkable how ECM manages to dance with the cold uppers and keep them away from the UK. The 144 charts looks to be the coldest for the majority of the UK. 

Odd looking FI to the ECM run, ending on a chilly note, with I imagine some hill snow around. The T240 chart is loaded with potential with the LP dropping SE'wards to join the Scandi trough ready to advect some proper cold air our way.

All a bit academic at that range of course but fun to see.

Nice to be able to say it's still looking the switch to colder more unsettled weather is strongly favoured, with snow a possibility for just about anywhere at times. It's not looking like a prolonged cold spell down here but it does look cold and unsettled with a low chance of something more prolonged setting up.

As it stands I'd be surprised if I didn't see some snow falling, with maybe some temporary accumulations at times although I'm not expecting much more than that for the time being. 

True they both go up to 1075mb's over Greenland!

25th Jan 2019:

16th December 2010 - You said it: 

A chart with a (weakly) +ve NAO, and as I mentioned last night when the Jet is being disrupted, relatively fragile looking blocks can form and maintain themselves, so I don't think it's an unreasonable chart to see in that scenario.

. 12z ECMWF Model run:

It is not that interesting today..

Quiet and neither Cold nor MILD, but chilly yes.

And not much weather action after T120 eh.

ECM op was one of the milder runs later on. 

Except that the upper block is notably weaker this time - and that is a significant difference.

That looks to be pretty much in line with what the GFS ensemble is saying.

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Looks like the ECM control run was interesting!

Mean getting tasty t144 n n/e would do good Nice

Westward correction from its mean M quite rare indeed

very few of Ian,s yellows left >16 Jan end of Jan at the surface now Nice

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Aye yum

I'd settle for #3 (remembering that the numbers start at 0).

I like 17 myself but im fussy

O/T but relevant

We are anticipating a high risk emerging later Jan into early Feb. Current thoughts are for this to manifest in episodic fashion, perhaps punctuated by less cold/milder phases due to the track of low pressure systems, with Feb having a 65-70% probability of being colder than avg.

Above tweet from Ian F 

V interesting 

Don't shoot me ...but why do I think it will be just standard wintry stuff 

I like MH note better last night, keep the faith Marcus

Overnight EC Monthly is bonkers with major N Atlantic and eventually Greenland blocking by week 2 onwards and with low pressure over and to the S of the UK with a clear signal for E or NE winds into Feb. It's got to verify of course but a consistent fcst that now.

Week today LP moves across ,

Hopefully drag the cold air down

Followed by a slider to the NW ?

Bit different ………….got a bomb to the NW 

Yes I noticed the Met have also “gone public” on Twitter about the coming cold. No real detail beyond what they say in the long ranger though.