Model Output Discussion 11/01/19 17:00 >>>>· Page 4

theweatheroutlook

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 06:11:59

Wow. 00z GFS, Operational is looking very interesting for cold and wintry weather.

Cold Arctic air and Northwest to North and NE winds in the bag as well. I hope the ECMWF, ICON and the UKMO also show and backup something like this for the UK.

Hmm, Oceans warming up more quickly than expected- does google a bell.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 06:58:38

#77

00z ECMWF to T144- at the moment it looks like we need to await to see if like the ICON has it, Cold Thursday 17th, North cold on Wednesday 16th, Less cold Friday the 18th.

If ECMWF at 168- follows the ICON that shows North Atlantic PV Low head to France West NW- it could drag cold and frosty arctic air back in by Saturday and Sunday.

It is less cold ECMWF 00z, so at Friday 18- Saturday 19th the UK looks less cold, with high Pressure.

GFS and ICON show the Cold air in charge by midday Wednesday 16th Jan as Eastern N Atlantic UK Low drags in cold NW then Northerly air stream, but the UKMO at 144 Friday reduces the cold air by Friday- High pressure sit over UK with approaching Low from North Atlantic with another follow to its SW side.

On Friday to Sunday this morning’s 00z GFS looks cold Wednesday 16th to throughout period from then except Friday 18th as less cold, cold NW winds on Wednesday Thursday 16-17th and again for Saturday as Low Pressure exit and move to Southern North Sea Belgium Holland etc.

ECMWF unlike the 00z GFS it show UK less cold on 19th and 20th with Western SW Europe seeing SE tracking North Atlantic Low from Friday 18th.

GFS 00z, today looks quite cold on the 21-23rd January and even colder from 24-26th January with cold NW winds turning Cyclonic then veer NE as another Deep Low from Iceland heads SE to the UK following earlier Cold NW SE moving Shortwave Low’s.

Edited by user 12 January 2019 07:21:09 | Reason: Not Specified

White Meadows
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 06:58:57

#78

Met office longer term text suggestive/ emphasis on snow especially in the east later on.
Ties in with pressure filling to our north after the initial Polar bombing.

JACKO4EVER
Guest

12 January 2019 07:00:35

#79

Morning all, a clearer signal now for a colder period as we move into the back end of next week and beyond. I would still urge caution, it won’t be a winter wonderland for everyone but some places will get real dumpings of snow I would have thought. The signals are there, we just need to start firming up on details now. Some of those runs are real cobra affairs later in the period.

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:00:48

#80

pretty good output this morning it looks cold but detail is impossible as models seem all over the place. ECM has a very cold easterly drift by day 10.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

White Meadows
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:02:02

#81

Not sure I like ECM this morning.
Looks like the Azores high wants to hang around like an unwanted neighbour spoiling the party.

Rob K
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:08:47

#82

Yes I would like to see that high pressure heading north a bit on the ECM post 240.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:19:55

#83

Yes I would like to see that high pressure heading north a bit on the ECM post 240.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

It's very close to a proper beast though would expect to see some perhaps many easterlies in the ensembles . But we can't trust any output beyond day 7 at the moment its all over the place. But most lead to cold which is good.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Shropshire
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:41:02

#84

A positive set of overnight runs, no clear path to where we are headed synoptically but hopefully we can see blocking/wedges in the right areas.

Steve - as you are on here ATM - no I'm not Easton luna Boys on the other side.

Edited by user 12 January 2019 07:48:11 | Reason: Not specified

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Steve Murr
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:50:49

#85

A positive set of overnight runs, no clear path to where we are headed synoptically but hopefully we can see blocking/wedges in the right areas.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

ECM has trended colder - especially over the core of England - could be the difference between rain & snow-

ECM mean out to day 10 pretty solid with cold all the way, more energy sliding SE on the last day- more opportunity for snow - atlantic block heading NNE

Lol - are you sure 😂

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:54:25

#86

A positive set of overnight runs, no clear path to where we are headed synoptically but hopefully we can see blocking/wedges in the right areas.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

I agree. The generally colder outlook is maintained in the models this morning, with a London 850 mean below -5 for 5 days. There are repeated colder intrusions in the current GFS Op, parallel and Control and ECM but the real cold air keeps being cut of by mobile HPs. Interesting tendency for LPs to slip SEwards is still there (persistently in the GFSP) but the larger scale feel of movement at the surface is a W-E one. It does allow temporary setups for N and even NEly intrusions in our latitudes, and at the far end of the GFSP there s a hint of an easterly setup.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

12 January 2019 07:58:39

#87

ECM 00z was off the scale at day 10.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:59:43

#88

The ECM mean at day 10 is the best ive seen for snowy slider type scenarios but we just can't trust any output at the moment its extremely volatile .

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

doctormog
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 07:59:57

#89

The specific individual op runs are more encouraging this morning but the general trend is the same. If the 12z set maintain this it will be very good but I’m always a bit cautious when one set of runs gets “better” or “worse” in isolation. Still lots of options and as Ally says, mostly cold. It will be an interest few days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK00_54_2.png We probably won’t even notice much (apart from it being a bit chilly here) but I have been using it to mark the progression of things, and we’re on track. For what exactly is a different matter!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 08:04:37

#90

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK00_54_2.png We probably won’t even notice much (apart from it being a bit chilly here) but I have been using it to mark the progression of things, and we’re on track. For what exactly is a different matter!

Sums it up well.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Shropshire
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 08:08:13

#91

ECM has trended colder - especially over the core of England - could be the difference between rain & snow-

ECM mean out to day 10 pretty solid with cold all the way, more energy sliding SE on the last day- more opportunity for snow - atlantic block heading NNE

Lol - are you sure 😂

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr

ECM ensembles suggest most are synoptically dfferent than the OP by the end though not necessarily in a bad way.

Broadmayne Blizzard
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 08:10:24

#92

ECM 00z was off the scale at day 10.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Some might call that an outlier, Brian personally prefer the term trendsetter.. lol

Formerly Blizzard of 78

Solar Cycles
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 08:35:34

#93

ECM ensembles suggest most are synoptically dfferent than the OP by the end though not necessarily in a bad way.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire

Yep, I'll go along with that Ian. The GfS throws out another alternative (but not pleasing on the eye) this morning seeing the U.K. engulfed in milder uppers, something it hasn’t shown for the last several days. Eyes down for completely different outcomes for the rest of the day.😂

doctormog
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 08:45:00

#94

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles

The GFS 00z was generally pretty cold?

Re. The ECM ensembles, I think Ian’s comment is fair enough as the op was actually above the mean in the latter stages of the run for many more northern parts.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Retron
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 08:59:22

#95

While we wait for the UK ensembles, just across the water in the SW of the Netherlands (not De Bilt!) we can see some interesting clustering going on:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim&r=zuidwest

There's a signature of "diving lows", as we've seen in all the models recently. By the 19th a minority cluster develops, showing an easterly influence. A second wave of easterly members (which are instead showing another "diving low" during that first cluster's easterly) then appears around the 24th - this time with far more members.

In my view this would add some weight to the thoughts of a series of "diving lows" followed by an easterly, albeit an eventual easterly is still far from certain!

Leysdown, north Kent

Retron
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 09:01:32

#96

Some might call that an outlier, Brian personally prefer the term trendsetter.. lol

Originally Posted by: Broadmayne Blizzard

I reckon it's not an outlier. Those SD charts, as I've said before, are quite deceptive for those who aren't aware of the difference between standard deviation and an outlier.

Leysdown, north Kent

Solar Cycles
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 09:01:38

#97

The GFS 00z was generally pretty cold?

Re. The ECM ensembles, I think Ian’s comment is fair enough as the op was actually above the mean in the latter stages of the run for many more northern parts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

You're right doc. I viewed them before my morning caffeine fix. 😁

Polar Low
Advanced Member

12 January 2019 09:14:30

#98

The opp appears experdiential

quote=Retron;1071107]

I reckon it's not an outlier. Those SD charts, as I've said before, are quite deceptive for those who aren't aware of the difference between standard deviation and an outlier.

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