GFS ensembles at least seem to have resolved some of the noise in the mid term. Though clearly GFS seems to together have the right signals or going up garden path. When you look at how much of an outlier they were on ECM graph

---

Interesting to see where the ECM goes this morning, I didn't share some of the excitement last night because post day 10 (day 10 again!) I didn't see definitive signs of blocking that would have kept the cold in place.

The GFS ramps up the PV this morning set against more jam tomorrow from the EC46.

 

---

On the some subject of the GFS, this makes me wonder. The story is from last week but I’m not sure how much it may have changed or the impact.

“But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it.

“There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk.

Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?utm_term=.f4e9dec4af1d 

---

A pretty unexciting set of runs from GFS and GEFS this morning, it has to be said, with a marked increase in progressive, less-cold runs. It'll be interesting to see whether the ECM suite follows suit, considering that last night it developed mean highs of between 2 and 3C for London from the 21st. This morning's GEFS instead has mean highs between 3 and 5C for the same period.

(It's also worth noting that the SSW continues until the 21st, according to ECM. Once it ends it's a very gradual ramp up. I have a feeling that if it were a much faster ramp-up, i.e. -1, +7, +20 rather than -0.8, +0.5, +0.6 then we'd see quite a different picture!)

---

 

Yes, the local ensemble has fallen into line, and the lowest 850hpa temp we get to is on Thursday and the average remains at or above - 5c thereafter 

Not much to see here. 

---

Any thoughts on the impact of the US shutdown on the GFS’ performance?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

---

ECM shaping up well

---

In theory it should have next to no effect, unless a server goes down or something like that. In practice? Hard to say. Its accuracy has been poor of late compared to the other models.

Yes, ECM blows a big sloppy raspberry at the GFS this morning. It's handling the jet differently over the Atlantic and that makes all the difference. Whether that's related to its improved resolution higher up is hard to say, but it's pleasing to see it's being consistent (as opposed to consistently getting more typically zonal, like G(E)FS).

---

Despite a disappointing GFS, the ECM seems to be singing from the same hymn sheet this morning quite amazing the differences between both models, I feel one is going to have egg on its face.

The gefs do have a habit of flip flopping though!

---

Fast forward quick - this will do 

---

This is what I was hoping we'd see starting to dominate GEFS 

---

 

Well another stunning ECM but not sure I trust it as so different to GFS and GEM. 

It's either a embarrassing climdown or a stunning victory for the ECM on the way

 

 

 

 

---

It seems we have a right battle royle.

GFS v ECM

---

I think this is about as far as we should look on the GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_48_1.png 

---

They could not be more different this morning. If you look at the end of the GEFS this morning there is another cooling trend showing with high pressure resulting in northerlies, easterlies and NEasterlies. Keep watching to see what the GFS is doing!!
Martin

---

850s look very poor on the ECM run tbh. Still, perhaps some snow flurries for some, and maybe, just maybe, I might see a min that is below 5.0c. 

---

GFS ensembles continue to get milder and milder - after that brief dip at the end of the week the mean is now mostly around -3 to -4 for London.

---

Good shout , just gone the through the  depths of FI some good set ups in there just lacks the 850's 

---

Perhaps someone keeps telling the GFS it is Xmas Day? 

Have you taken a look at the data input/count page NCEP provide? I'll see if I can check it out later unless someone beats me to it.

---

The 00z ICON is worth a look if you want to feel even more confused this morning.

---

It's coming even if we are drip fed the cold

Does anyone know if the US government shutdown affects the GFS input data? Just a thought.
Anyway, a big split between GFS and ECM this morning- it’s anyones guess I suppose

Is the evolution from t144 to t168 on the 0z ECM credible? The sliding low from Greenland just blasts through the Azores lobe over the UK and the low ends up over Biscay at t192. UKMO 0z at t144 has a similar set up to the ECM 0z but with Azores lobe stronger on UKMO.

ECM looks a bit isolated this morning to me so confidence in the evolution must be low. Hope I'm wrong.

---

Thanks Brian, and no I haven’t had a look.

I’m not sure the input data will have decreased per se. rather that there’s will be no quality control for anomalous data etc. The system is probably almost entirely automated, but it is the almost bit I am curious about, especially given the nature of the GFS op output over the last week or more.

As for the evolution from days 6 to 7 on the ECM, yes it is credible.

---

IMO it's the charts circa T+144 that provide the interest in terms of the angle of attack of the lows leaving the US/Canada.

---