NOT LOOKING GOOD - Mean stays above -5c @ 850hpa once this weekend is out of the way!?

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Yes the odd hint of northern blocking trying to nose in here and there 

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More colder runs for my location in the GEFS than in the 00Z run. From the 24th, seems to be more runs in the -5 to -11 850hpa range than there was previously

 

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Interesting. The 6z GFSP is out to t210 and the jet is raging over the top of the the Azores/UK ridge up into Svalbard. From that run at least, there appears no obvious route to Northern blocking in the foreseeable future!

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Well still no clear route to HLB as of yet and given this winter so far you wouldn’t rule out heights just parking up on top us again.

Look at the 06z para  @ 240 with LP directly over the N. Pole:

LP approaching Greenland and Iceland etc..!?

The only good thing is that the azores is no longer there!!

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So no hard frosts either!

 

For Low pressure to go around the high and topple over and then dive down into central Europe and give them the snow when they have already had weeks of it? hmm!! Brexit - Weather doesn't want to include us and really is making us feel like we have left already!

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011506/gfs-0-264.png?6 

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Well that's alright, then.

 

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Snow Rows show less snow forecast in Scotland (more a case of it being drier, rather than too mild), increases in the SE.

 

City	6z 15/01/19	0z 15/01/19	Change
Inverness	274	286	-12
Newcastle	141	176	-35
Edinburgh	136	146	-10
Glasgow	129	142	-13
Aberdeen	127	143	-16
Liverpool	127	134	-7
Belfast	120	129	-9
Sheffield	106	95	+11
Dublin	105	103	+2
Norwich	97	101	-4
Birmingham	92	95	-3
London	86	76	+10
Brighton	78	52	+26
Cardiff	68	63	+5
Plymouth	35	26	+9

 

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London snow row is 94 on the 06Z, or are you only counting certain days?

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This is the point where I tend to embarrass myself...

The big split on the GEFS begins on the 22nd/23rd. Most Ens members show the low sinking S or SE over the UK, albeit with slight variations on the tracking options. With GFS, it's the next low steaming out of Newfoundland and how that is modelled. Most Ens members force it through over the top of the mid-North Atlantic ridge, which topples the high, initially over the UK.

ECM, on the other hand, also has the low sinking S'wards on the 22nd, but then doesn't develop the Newfoundland low to anything like the same extent. The result is that the mid-North Atlantic ridge develops into a more cut-off high directly north of the UK by 216.

Take the ECM to 240 and there's actually some [what looks like the beginnings of] retrogression, as a low to the UK's ENE builds and extends SW'wards.

 

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I'm going off the TWO chart:

 

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Hmm, my fingers must have malfunctioned 

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S'ok, I double-checked when I did it, got a different figure from my first, checked again and got another figure entirely. Twas then I cranked up the old abacus.

 

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102 the current record Rob, 06z Sunday.

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So indicative of HP to our north and if this is the case then the ECM @ 240 could be the most accurate of all models? I look forward to seeing what the ECM has to say on the 12z run!

How do you gtet the data?

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From the main TWO site - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Select the 'GEFS' option, then click on each individual location and count up the snow rows for each. The old fashioned way

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The blocking to north/north east and east increased again in 06z - maybe another growing pattern of a change coming. Positive for cold .
Martin

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Can not fathom discussing model output that is quite likely flawed. Makes no sense surely. It would be like waiting for blood tests to come back knowing samples were contaminated or tampered with in the first place.
Thats my 2 penny worth anyway.

Really measley 850’s all the way when you know what’s really needed for notable cold & snow.
Probably some fun next week up north however... All the signs are pointing to ‘north of the Cheshire gap’ scenarios.

 

Erm... it's the Model Output Discussion thread.

 

 

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AO looks set for some dramatic changes

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif 

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">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif