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jhall
15 January 2019 16:56:26


 


Someone's come into work unpaid and fixed the GFS. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


What a turn-around!


Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
15 January 2019 16:56:46
GFS finishes with -12s sneaking into the SE and the high pressure looking like stretching up to the northwest to open up more cold from the north. I'll take that evolution (even if I still think the models, and especially GFS) haven't got to grips with things yet.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
15 January 2019 16:57:01

If the GFS 12z evolved that way, no complaints from me 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
15 January 2019 17:02:19


If the GFS 12z evolved that way, no complaints from me 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Decent Gfs that's for sure a bit of snow as well day 8 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arbroath 1320
15 January 2019 17:14:16


 


Someone's come into work unpaid and fixed the GFS. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Lets hope they've fixed the GFSP at the same time


GGTTH
JACKO4EVER
15 January 2019 17:19:36
Some snow on the GFS in FI- I wonder where we’ve heard that before this winter ?
doctormog
15 January 2019 17:20:38

Some snow on the GFS in FI- I wonder where we’ve heard that before this winter ?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


There’s some forecast here for tomorrow 


JACKO4EVER
15 January 2019 17:33:07


 


There’s some forecast here for tomorrow 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I hope your snow shovel is ready! 


Enjoy 🤗

Arbroath 1320
15 January 2019 17:44:33

GEFS have updated already on Meteociel.

Some stellar runs in there with HLB and easterlies. 


GGTTH
Russwirral
15 January 2019 17:47:39
For the first time this winter Im finally starting to get interested in FI. Even if it doesnt come off, there has been some severe cold knocking around with some degree of consistency that comes with a pending cold spell.

I think we are finally seeing SSW impact.... finally.
doctormog
15 January 2019 17:49:07


 


I hope your snow shovel is ready! 


Enjoy 🤗


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I think I may need a snow teaspoon at best 


It will be very interesting to see what the ECM run shows in the midterm section of the run this evening. Consistent with the 00z or not? I’m not sure what to expect.


Brian Gaze
15 January 2019 17:56:31

GEFS12z are more mixed than I was expecting.  



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
15 January 2019 18:15:53


GEFS have updated already on Meteociel.

Some stellar runs in there with HLB and easterlies. 


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


For London they are the least cold set for some time, to my eye. The op was one of the coldest options at the end. Snow row total is 83 so only slightly down on the 6Z, though.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
15 January 2019 18:20:42


GEFS12z are more mixed than I was expecting.  



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Looking at the ensemble mean precipitation line, it's striking how dry it's forecast to continue to be (at least in SE England). It looks like we can expect only another 10 mm or so by the end of the month, which would surely make this one of the driest Januaries on record.


Cranleigh, Surrey
marco 79
15 January 2019 18:23:10
Op is sniffing out the HLB hopefully.....I would presume those ens will fall with the next few runs....eyes to Ecm.....
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
JACKO4EVER
15 January 2019 18:24:49


 


I think I may need a snow teaspoon at best 


It will be very interesting to see what the ECM run shows in the midterm section of the run this evening. Consistent with the 00z or not? I’m not sure what to expect.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I think we are all in the same boat, who knows what will be shown. If only for some cross model agreement- and as you say even model run to run agreement. It’s chaos

fairweather
15 January 2019 18:34:49

Well best GFS Op run for some time but you can't really take much notice of it as it is a big outlier and the latter part of the run has a spread of 16C so most of that can be ignored.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
15 January 2019 18:36:36
The ECM 12z seems quite consistent with the 00z run so far.
ballamar
15 January 2019 18:39:58

The ECM 12z seems quite consistent with the 00z run so far.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


angle of low is interesting 

JACKO4EVER
15 January 2019 18:43:18
Yes ECM is slowly evolving a little consistency so far
DPower
15 January 2019 18:43:27
Ecm 12z looks like it will spoil us again and going to be a cracker of a run this.
Whiteout
15 January 2019 18:45:58

ECM, stunning T+168 and 192 charts,  That is what we want to see 


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
White Meadows
15 January 2019 18:47:31

Some snow on the GFS in FI- I wonder where we’ve heard that before this winter ?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

..in your last 16 posts? 🤣


on a serious note, the gold always seems to stay at the end of the rainbow. Let’s see if ECM continues its pantomime ‘mild easterly’ from previous runs...

Arcus
15 January 2019 18:47:44
Yep, as I mentioned yesterday, that angle of WAA with the low coming out of Canada at T+144 is again favourable on ECM. Plenty of hoops to jump through yet, but encouraging signs for cold weather fans. I wonder if the MetO will up their "25% chance of easterly next week" tomorrow?
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Whiteout
15 January 2019 18:47:56

T+192, classic Easterly, heavy snow showers piling in 


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

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