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doctormog
19 January 2019 08:21:42


 


 


It's a bit of fun calm dowm


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Calm down? 


I couldn’t be more calm, it’s just the knee jerk reactions that make me chuckle. I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone in denial about a hypothetical scenarios shown on computers 5 or 6 days away. If people take or took the GFS op runs as, to use the expression, “nailed on” they were always at risk of massive (mood)swings.


The cooling trend for the second half of January has been highlighted nicely in models and forecasts but there has never been a consistent signal beyond “colder interludes”. That still remains the case and the next chapter of the NWP Game of Swings saga is still unwritten. Enjoy the ride, it certainly is fun. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
19 January 2019 08:24:47


UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:


The latter half of next week looks to stay cold or very cold, with frosts likely most nights. There may be cloud, rain and hill snow perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday, but thereafter turning brighter with showers. These will feed in from eastern coasts, but are likely to bring sleet or snow for some. There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast. It will stay cold until the end of January with spells of rain, sleet and snow at times. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely, with overnight frost.


I think we could see this change significantly at some point today..


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Agree there is a good chance we'll see that watered down later today. I've been texting this morning to try and put the brakes on things because I'm significantly less confident about how things will play out next week. Having said that we are obviously still close to the tipping point and therefore it isn't yet a done deal. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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marting
19 January 2019 08:24:52
Just looked through the ECM runs and the ECM op is going against the bulk of its runs, not without support but some pulling up the mean, so a variation on a theme and then it cools back down again post day 10.
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Chiltern Blizzard
19 January 2019 08:25:58
Far too much pessimism and silly hyperbole this morning...

How often does the GEFS show sub-5c 850 mean from day 3 to day 15 (albeit with a brief blip to -4)?

If I recall, the ECM has often modelled storms exiting the US worse than GFS in winter months, leading to errors down the line in our weather... sometimes where ECM favours cold, then backtracks, or vice-versa.

The odds are still trending towards a cold outbreak as per GFS (I’d say 2:1 or so) how severe nobody can say, but even if that doesn’t pan out, the background signals seem conducive to other opportunities early Feb.
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Whether Idle
19 January 2019 08:28:18

Far too much pessimism and silly hyperbole this morning...

How often does the GEFS show sub-5c 850 mean from day 3 to day 15 (albeit with a brief blip to -4)?

If I recall, the ECM has often modelled storms exiting the US worse than GFS in winter months, leading to errors down the line in our weather... sometimes where ECM favours cold, then backtracks, or vice-versa.

The odds are still trending towards a cold outbreak as per GFS (I’d say 2:1 or so) how severe nobody can say, but even if that doesn’t pan out, the background signals seem conducive to other opportunities early Feb.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Indeed, far too much hyperbole.  Here is the ICON for next Friday: We miss the boat and are in a westerly flow.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
19 January 2019 08:30:17


Lots of interesting and justifiable discussion about the ECM this morning.


Meanwhile the 00z GFS Op seems to show a classic mild vs cold battle from next weekend, with the cold winning out. It's one of the coldest options in the ENS but it has the 528 DAM line running north-south along the UK for quite some time. Just one of the infinite possibilities of course but, to my less experienced eye, if that kind of scenario actually happened it could give a lot of snowfall in some areas? I love the prospect of cold weather but I'm actually quite enjoying all this uncertainty 


Originally Posted by: marcus72 


Me too !


The excitement is always held just on the limit of FI ( 6 days away). It's the drug that keeps us coming back for more.


In two or three weeks time a few of us will start to get our lives in order as the daily calling weakens and another unfulfilled winter passes. This recovery of the human condition starts in the south of the UK...by the end of February our northern members get themselves clean. By early March our Scottish members have their lives back. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Whether Idle
19 January 2019 08:32:04

 NAVGEM for a week away, which is much colder than ICON, for example:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 08:35:49


 


Calm down? 


I couldn’t be more calm, it’s just the knee jerk reactions that make me chuckle. I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone in denial about a hypothetical scenarios shown on computers 5 or 6 days away. If people take or took the GFS op runs as, to use the expression, “nailed on” they were always at risk of massive (mood)swings.


The cooling trend for the second half of January has been highlighted nicely in models and forecasts but there has never been a consistent signal beyond “colder interludes”. That still remains the case and the next chapter of the NWP Game of Swings saga is still unwritten. Enjoy the ride, it certainly is fun. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


I disagree its knee jerk its just commentating on the output.  You could say when people including me go crazy for cold charts its knee jerk . But thats allowed under TWO's laws it would seem. At the end of the day its all a bit of fun . Let's hope for  better charts from the 12s.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
19 January 2019 08:36:57


Personally, Ive always been a fan of the CMA.  There have been occasions when it has been correct at a distance when other models have faltered.  Here is the CMA take on day 8, deep FI:



As I have maintained consistently for the past week or so, there is great uncertainty and the situation is in the balance. 50/50 west or east flow IMHO.  More runs are needed.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Can't say I have heard of that model before  but that is a nice chart. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
David M Porter
19 January 2019 08:38:44


I think we should all wait for the 12zs before having the wake  - I'm sure David Porter will be on soon with some optimism  - but for me, this one has gone.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 



I seem to recall you making a similar comment in the middle of last February after a few dodgy op runs from both GFS & ECM which did not go for the arrival of the Beast and instead brought back the atlantic. And we all know what happened next...


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gusty
19 January 2019 08:41:41

I have seen absolutely nothing from any posting in here today suggesting knee jerk reactions, hyperbole etc. If anything its the cold biased members who are getting a little irritated by the helpful commentary.


This evening when we are all staring down the barrell of the gun facing Siberia the mood will no doubt lift again.


Roll with it....its a virtual game with the occasional correct outcome. 


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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doctormog
19 January 2019 08:42:00


 


 


I disagree its knee jerk its just commentating on the output.  You could say when people including me go crazy for cold charts its knee jerk . But thats allowed under TWO's laws it would seem. At the end of the day its all a bit of fun . Let's hope for  better charts from the 12s.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


You obviously misunderstood my meaning. Commenting on the milder evolution in the ECM 00z op is not knee jerk it is discussing the model output. What is knee jerk is insinuating any chance of cold weather or an easterly outbreak is gone because of it. Going for any op runs in isolation is never a wise idea, mild or cold. Some have said the cold option “has gone” based on a couple of ECM op runs. The question is not whether that turns out to be the case, and it may well be, but rather, is it a premature conclusion dressed up as a “wise head” (really just siding with the climate norm because if they are wrong it will be forgotten and no one will care).

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
19 January 2019 08:43:02


 


Me too !


The excitement is always held just on the limit of FI ( 6 days away). It's the drug that keeps us coming back for more.


In two or three weeks time a few of us will start to get our lives in order as the daily calling weakens and another unfulfilled winter passes. This recovery of the human condition starts in the south of the UK...by the end of February our northern members get themselves clean. By early March our Scottish members have their lives back. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


My six week detox course is booked from 1st March. Last year I had to postpone it for two weeks and it wasn’t until April that I got back to normal.


The obsession with EC is rather strange to me. A model that flaps about like a fish out of water at times, taking its suite with it. GFS and MetO look fine at 120.


Of course my head says we’re on a move away from a decent Easterly for now but I’m giving it a few more days yet.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
19 January 2019 08:44:29


 You obviously misunderstood my meaning. Commenting on the milder evolution in the ECM 00z op is not knee jerk it is discussing the model output. What is knee jerk is insinuating any chance of cold weather or an easterly outbreak is gone because of it. Going for any op runs in isolation is never a wise idea, mild or cold. Some have said the cold option “has gone” based on a couple of ECM op runs. The question is not whether that turns out to be the case, and it may well be, but rather, is it a premature conclusion dressed up as a “wise head” (really just siding wity the climate norm because if they are wrong it will be forgotten and no one will care).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Calm down Doc... We are all having a bit of fun this morning. You've been here long enough to know how this plays out. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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ballamar
19 January 2019 08:44:40
Really not what I was expecting from the op run this morning on ECM - although I believe it will still change I think the influence of blocking will be greater than ECM is showing. Fun though
Gusty
19 January 2019 08:46:28


 My six week detox course is booked from 1st March. Last year I had to postpone it for two weeks and it wasn’t until April that I got back to normal.


The obsession with EC is rather strange to me. A model that flaps about like a fish out of water at times, taking its suite with it. GFS and MetO look fine at 120.


Of course my head says we’re on a move away from a decent Easterly for now but I’m giving it a few more days yet.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Agreed 100% 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



doctormog
19 January 2019 08:48:12


 


Calm down Doc... We are all having a bit of fun this morning. You've been here long enough to know how this plays out. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Sorry yes, I forget a few angry Melanie faces should also be along in a minute along with an insinuation from someone that I was saying bitter cold was nailed on. 


P.S. I’m incredibly calm and chilled unlike our potential weather, but thanks the advice. Perhaps if enough people tell me to calm down I may become irritated. 


P.P.S. Spot on as usual Neil.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Shropshire
19 January 2019 08:50:07


 



I seem to recall you making a similar comment in the middle of last February after a few dodgy op runs from both GFS & ECM which did not go for the arrival of the Beast and instead brought back the atlantic. And we all know what happened next...



Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Not at days 5-6.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Chunky Pea
19 January 2019 08:50:36

EPS 500mb anom at day 15. 



This ride is not over yet. 


 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
warrenb
19 January 2019 08:51:33


 


Not at days 5-6.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


How is the radiator

Tonbridge 45m 
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 08:52:41


 


You obviously misunderstood my meaning. Commenting on the milder evolution in the ECM 00z op is not knee jerk it is discussing the model output. What is knee jerk is insinuating any chance of cold weather or an easterly outbreak is gone because of it. Going for any op runs in isolation is never a wise idea, mild or cold. Some have said the cold option “has gone” based on a couple of ECM op runs. The question is not whether that turns out to be the case, and it may well be, but rather, is it a premature conclusion dressed up as a “wise head” (really just siding with the climate norm because if they are wrong it will be forgotten and no one will care).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Look lets just hope that the 12s look much better for the easterly that we can agree on.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
19 January 2019 08:54:39

Having looked at the GFS, ECM & UKMO 00z op runs this morning, it seems to me that at T+144, UKmO is nearer to the solution suggested by GFS than to the one suggested by ECM in that, like UKMO, GFS seems keener on raising heights to the NE than ECM appears to be.


While the runs this morning are not as good overall as they were yesterday, IMO this is far from being settled one way or the other. It seems that the behaviour of the LP exiting the USA is what is causing the models their current headache, and until that is resolved one way or the other we can expect more flip-flopping from the models.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Solar Cycles
19 January 2019 08:55:21
So we’re back to looking into deepest FI for some crumbs of comfort. 😂😂😂

Looks to me that the Tropospheric response to events higher up in the strat are again a thorn in our side. Could this be the winter that promised so much but delivered so little.
David M Porter
19 January 2019 08:56:31


 


Not at days 5-6.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Well however many days ahead it was, you were still proved to be incorrect when you said that the chances of the Beast arriving before the end of last Feb had gone. That is my point.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
19 January 2019 08:56:40

Really not what I was expecting from the op run this morning on ECM - although I believe it will still change I think the influence of blocking will be greater than ECM is showing. Fun though

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I did comment last night that I thought your confidence that the 00z would revert to a colder long-term picture might be misplaced.



 


Anyone getting too too carried away or despondent should keep the verification stats at T+144 in mind.  Then add on the extra uncertainty introduced by the SSW.


ECM ensemble mean spread at T+144



Then 24 hours later:


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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