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Shropshire
19 January 2019 16:20:48

Double figure temps into the SW next Saturday, and the Euro trough weakening.


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Russwirral
19 January 2019 16:22:50
Greece gets the cold...

Something tells me the story wont stop there though... still plenty of runs for that to change.
backtobasics
19 January 2019 16:25:32
Dry useable weather is fine by me, just not cool grey and wet, the only winter weather I really don’t like. I think we’ll get more shots at this yet but looks like this has knocked the stuffing out of some of us !
Gooner
19 January 2019 16:28:19


A dreadful UKMO at T96, and although no change in the METO outlook today - there will be a big one tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Short term maybe - longer - doubtful - look how ICON has cold NWlies mid term 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JACKO4EVER
19 January 2019 16:29:36
You never know, winter might actually get here by April. Terribly disappointing output, but whilst those hints a few days ago of AZ having some influence in some of the ENS were there then I did wonder. I mentioned this to some derision, sadly it looks like it could well come true
Shropshire
19 January 2019 16:31:39

You never know, winter might actually get here by April. Terribly disappointing output, but whilst those hints a few days ago of AZ having some influence in some of the ENS were there then I did wonder. I mentioned this to some derision, sadly it looks like it could well come true

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I think every winter forecast I've seen is now a bust - with the exception of the Iberian Met who predicted settled and dry for them throughout.


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
19 January 2019 16:32:26

You never know, winter might actually get here by April. Terribly disappointing output, but whilst those hints a few days ago of AZ having some influence in some of the ENS were there then I did wonder. I mentioned this to some derision, sadly it looks like it could well come true

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I don’t think we should ever discount the Azores High as it is a feature of our prevailing climate. Anyway here is the 12z GFS op run so far



LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2019 16:33:00

It is cold today, 5 degrees max here today, and tonight they expect my area to get down to 1 degree and zero degrees, this mean the cold spell is begun.  Overcast and murky skies have been prevalent for three weeks now, with just a couple of days that brought frost and clear skies day and night.


This cold weather is expected to break by Friday next week.


There is clearly some interesting cold weather from Monday evening to upto Thursday 24th Jan.  There could be a mix of rain sleet and hill snow, and cold NW winds or lighter cyclonic Low Pressure winds.


It settles down by Friday the 25th to Sunday the 27th, but out in the NW Atlantic the next PV Low Vortex feature is ready to plung ESE towards the West and North UK I would say maybe hit the UK come Monday and Tuesday 28th and 29th January, with heavy rain sleet plus maybe snow for some lucky ones- but this Low Pressure with cold air pushing SE from Canada's SE side, and Newfoundland NE USA- through NW Atlantic is one to watch!.


.


I hope that the ECMWF this evening for it's 12z run can support the GFS and ICON's predictions.


On the ICON it is interesting to see Low Pressure enter NW UK this coming Friday the 25th Jan. 2019.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Shropshire
19 January 2019 16:34:24

Fairly similar GFS 12z to the 06z by day 9 , some intensely low heights to the NW.


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
sizzle
19 January 2019 16:36:21

on a upbeat note. REMEMBER what happened last FEB 2018 not is yet all over.. we had lots of twists and turns ups and downs last year and was hit by the BEAST eventually...A possible snow event monday night into tuesday "maybe " my eyes are on FEB.  MODELS CHARTS

JACKO4EVER
19 January 2019 16:36:45


 


I don’t think we should ever discount the Azores High as it is a feature of our prevailing climate. Anyway here is the 12z GFS op run so far



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


i think that’s sound advice Doc it’s a massive player

Gooner
19 January 2019 16:36:48


Snow a possibility from this 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
19 January 2019 16:40:15

Just a reminder its not just the East that can deliver cold air



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
19 January 2019 16:43:25


Just a reminder its not just the East that can deliver cold air



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


True enough; the last week of November 2010 was a delight to behold day on day, as northerlies persisted.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gooner
19 January 2019 16:44:00

Just to liven things up



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chunky Pea
19 January 2019 16:47:16

-10 isotherm all the way from Canada reaching moi as soon as 216hr 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_216_2.png


Pretty incredible, synoptically speaking, if that happened. 


 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
tallyho_83
19 January 2019 16:49:18


Fairly similar GFS 12z to the 06z by day 9 , some intensely low heights to the NW.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Despite the flip and huge disappointment - there is some cold zonality in the 12z Op run:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


JACKO4EVER
19 January 2019 16:49:33
Almost hints of the dreaded cool/cold zonality
Gooner
19 January 2019 16:50:33

Almost hints of the dreaded cool/cold zonality

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


With snow 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
19 January 2019 16:50:38


-10 isotherm all the way from Canada reaching moi as soon as 216hr 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_216_2.png


Pretty incredible, synoptically speaking, if that happened. 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I think that's the remnants of a Nor-easter winter storm that will occur off the eastern seaboard of the USA tomorrow?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
19 January 2019 16:53:16
Seems to have been quite a shift in model output since that trendsetting ECM 12Z yesterday, but no doubt plenty more changes to come as the track of that winter storm becomes clearer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
19 January 2019 16:53:30

Almost hints of the dreaded cool/cold zonality

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Looks like all options on the table!!



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Chunky Pea
19 January 2019 16:55:50


 


I think that's the remnants of a Nor-easter winter storm that will occur off the eastern seaboard of the USA tomorrow?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Pretty much. Can only imagine the  potential that air mass would bring if it happens. Deeply cold air moving over the 2nd biggest lake in the world. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
19 January 2019 16:56:52


 


Looks like all options on the table!!



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


You can tell we also do well here for snow from a cold westerly.


Solar Cycles
19 January 2019 16:57:17
Well day 9 and 10 look interesting....... I’ll get my coat and not for those wintry looking charts either. 😂

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