That link that Snow Hoper posted shows the snow starting to settle in Berkshire and North Hants at lunchtime tomorrow. No-one is expecting that, are they?

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I think as it stands, the MetO and BBC are underestimating the shower potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning here. Despite the hoo-haa about Tuesday, I'm more interested in what the Irish Sea can deliver once the genuinely cold dewpoints and 2m temps arrive by nightfall on Tuesday into Wednesday. The 00z GFS had a classic "cold westerly" look to it this morning. 

Thursday may deliver for you and Saint but I have my doubts for here. We never do well when the wind is from the SE.

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Both Hirlam and WRF 06z runs bring an area of wintry precipitation across in the morning

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Currently I expect 10-15cm on Tue night on the epsom downs.

 

Met Office issued a warning:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-30&id=18abde8a-95fb-4416-977a-38f8ba22f0a1

Regions and local authorities affected:

• East Midlands

 

• London & South East England

 

• North East England

 

• North West England

 

• SW Scotland, Lothian Borders


• South West England

 

• Wales

 

• West Midlands

 

• Yorkshire & Humber

Further details

A band of rain will arrive across Wales, northern and western England through the middle of Tuesday, then move eastwards through Tuesday afternoon and evening. The rain will turn quickly to snow on hills, then also to low levels in places. 3 to 5 cm snow is likely above 200 metres, with up to 10 cm in a few places. A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all. As skies clear overnight, ice is likely to form on some surfaces. In addition, wintry showers will follow into western areas on Wednesday morning, giving further slight accumulations of snow in a few places.

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Will be interesting to see this esp in Westminster around the rush hour time ahead of the vote and Norman smith reporting outside a snowy Westminster ha!!

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I think as far as my South Kent coastal location is concerned, I can expect the same as the last time on Tuesday night - as in as overnight wet slop leaving thin slush covering on car windows. Of course, it goes without saying that them thar hills to the north of the town will have better luck - which is always the case in marginal type set ups anyway.

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Well I am hugely disappointed by what the Met Office is showing for my location in Worcestershire tomorrow - a couple of hours of drizzle followed by a couple of hours of light snow. Main risk will be from icy patches forming tomorrow night.

Does not cut the mustard.

Hoping that Thursday/Friday is more conducive to a decent fall of snow.

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Even for the higher spots that’s a bit optimistic. The suites have been trending towards quite a short lived back end event which in my experience have to be high intensity to get anything meaningful on the ground.

Thursday however going the right way (or wrong depending on your location) in twitching things south and stretching the trough which will mean the ‘swivel’ point is everything when it comes to snowfall of any duration. Definitely an evolving situation.

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Worth noting ICON 6Z seems to develop two bands of ppn for Thurs night - one across the N Midlands and one along the Channel where -2 uppers pushing in from the west just beneath the low centre deliver snow even over the sea. One to watch.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=icon&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

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Thought i'd share this Met Office forecast here as the BBC precipitation type and intensity graphics are CRAP! Plus she's quite pretty!

Also Met Office are going for sleet/snow showers to continue in the SW over Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in contrast with the BBC.

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It looks like a really messy set up with lots of us seeing some snow but amounts appear pretty variable and not just sticking to the uplands for some good snow?

Still time for the track to alter but I'm thinking I will need to break it to the Mrs that we will be seeing snow tomorrow PM !

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Maybe possible top of leith hill! 300masl.....😉

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Hirlam and ICON snapshot for 9pm tomorrow night (two of the more promising for snow in the SE)

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@North west crew...

There is still (even at this late stage), disagreement in the specific wind direction overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The GFS parallel run shows a direct westerly flow, whereas the op has a slightly more northwesterly element. Just look at the difference. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_45_25.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_25.png 

Could make the difference between a lot of snow, and a few fleeting showers towards the Wirral. 

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Alex Deakin shows the potential for snow showers in the SW to continue tomorrow night into Wednesday - which is at odds with the BBC which shows showers dying away but the BBC graphics are in lower resolution:

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Looks marginal here in Leics tomorrow eve.....up the road a few villages over 200m might get 5cm....but only with a window of about an hours snow i cannot anticipate more than that....here it might just cover the grass....if lucky....the ice element weds morning looks more dangerous for minor roads...

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The Met Office app on my mobile for Fulham indicates rain from tomorrow evening and through much of the night and no sign of snow yet the Met Office weather warning recently received advises potential snow certainly not rain? really confusing

Euro4 was looking good on the 0Z run for lying snow, but the 6Z and 12Z have progressively removed it, to barely a few patches in the SE now. The automated MetO output for here has now got several hours of rain before a bit of sleet and snow, rather than an hour of rain before turning to snow. The trend today has been away from snow on Tuesday/Wed unfortunately.

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12z EURO4.

I don’t believe it for a second! 

Although I’m hoping it is picking up on the possibility of an Irish Sea streamer. 

It did go a bit OTT last week and was proved wrong. 

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Heck of a shadow from the Pennines on the Euro4  At odds with other precip outputs which show no issues with the front losing intensity as it heads east.

I hope it's wrong! 

 

Lol..... wirral

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It is 

Yep that’s the dream scenario for me. Fingers crossed. 

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Alex Deakin explains in better detail about tomorrows rain to snow in the south - and as it seems it looks as if the rain/snow event is moving through a lot quicker than previously thought as by Tuesday afternoon it's moved eastwards and passed all of Devon, Somerset and Dorset! Where as yesterday this band of rain and snow was still lingering over Devon and Somerset by Tuesday afternoon. Also it looks like a smaller but more intense area of rain to snow - maybe a' thundersnow' event. Whilst tomorrow is turning out to be a damb squib for many lowland southern areas - Tuesday night into Wednesday has been upgraded for snowfall in Devon with a number of snow showers heading in off Irish sea and well inland across Devon, Cornwall, Somerset and even Dorset if you see around Tuesday evening into Tuesday night which is different from what the BBC were showing and their poor graphics.



I don't understand why they haven't included a temperature map with this!?

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Some hefty showers coming into the NW now. Metoffice suggesting snow here from 9pm now. 0-1c.