hold the phone... heavy wet flakes now!

---

I think things will be a little more conducive for snow in the coming hours and overnight. Up until recently things will have been on the wrong side of marginal. 

---

 

Q ? Where are you? you don;'t have to tell me which city but where in UK as i can't see where you are/will be reporting from? Thanks. 

---

Snow reported in Manchester but some 27 miles north it’s piddling down.😏

 

We had rain @ 1.2*c

---

I noticed there was wet snow in Manchester on the live report on the 10pm news.

Meanwhile the 10.45 National forecast had snow only “to the north of London” so expect that yellow warning to be altered soon.

---

Quantum suggested the Arome 18z run would be a good pointer. Pretty much in line with then BBC TV forecast: a messy mixture of everything

---

A nice surprise dusting from this evenings passing showers. Tomorrow really is going to be a look out the window and see. Yet again I'm at that awkward altitude where I may get a slushy dusting but 100 metres higher up get absolutely pasted.

---

18z EURO4.

The model is now firmly picking up the on the idea of a streamer heading into Greater Manchester and the Peak District, tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. I’ll be very impressed if it has picked up on this fine detail correctly. 

Also a polar low NW Scotland - note the significant snow totals here. 

---

One can see the River ex clearly there 

GFS 18Z PRECIPITATION CHART 

18:00 TOMORROW (Tues) - looks like the precipitation hasn't cleared the SW parts of England yet and looks more widespread:

 

ICON on the other hand has the precipitation clearing SW England and much lighter by 1800:

 

GEM - Again very different to the Icon which is different to the GFS op run for 18:00 Tuesday.

---

All I can see is some actors from an Arabic TV programme? 

---

OK this is where the models stand.

Mostly snow:

WRF

ICON

 

Sleety, mushy stuff:

ARPEGE

AROME

EURO4

HIRLAM

 

 

The ultimate nightmare is when the two best models split on this. AROME going one way and WRF going the other. Also HIRLAM which usually exaggerates snow potential is the rainiest of all the models pretty much. So no help there. Now AROME is the absolute god when it comes to evap cooling situs and is also good at warm occlusions and warm fronts. But this is a cold occlusion where the AROME is slightly less strong.

 

I stand by my risk maps that I posted earlier with a 60-70% risk of snow over most parts. The one adendum I would make is to increase snow risk in north yorksire, southern parts of northumberland and decrease the risk in parts of the vale of york and south yorkshire.

 

I think we should go with the AROME. Most parts should see snow tommorow, but it will likely mix with rain in the lighter periods and the snow will be wet where it does fall.

 

---

I just see the risk map Q made. Where are you guys getting Arabic TV shows from?! 

---

This is what I see, which I found quite appropriate 

How odd. This is what I see:

---

I saw the map yesterday when Q first posted it and then later in the evening it changed to the Arabic actors.

---

The Met Office forecast for tonight is now totally at odds with the yellow warning. It now shows all precipitation has cleared through here well before 9pm which is the time at which the warning starts! (And never mind that the wintriest that it gets is an hour of sleet at 7pm.)

Not much “joined-up thinking” going on in Exeter at the moment.

---

Quite; its been chopping and changing. One moment it was an overnight even and now an evening event. In fact, not an event at all if its snow you after.

I've seen these before; it will probably turn to snow just as the band will finish passing through.

The Met app does appear however to show a great chance of snowfall in Thursday evening. Though I wont hold my breath

---

Hold that front page. Its already changed for Thursday now showing sleet 

---

radio Sussex in full panic mode over 1-3 cm predicted snowfall - which may never happen, especially on the coast where most people live.

---

Now being progged as a total rain event.

---

While there may be disappointment for many(though not all today) today, I am getting a bit more optimistic about Thursday. Running through the Fax charts https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax the fronts approaching on Wednesday evening and into Thursday now seem to be approaching from a more Southerly trajectory, generally a more favourable direction of approach.

---

Looking like it’s a rain/sleet event here going on what the Beeb are showing, thereafter a few wintry showers. Thursday looks like we’re out of the picture as well. Cracking winter eh!! 😂😂

So to my untrained eye looking at the rainfall radar (www.meteoradar.co.uk) I see a low pressure system tracking up the channel, a band of precipitation up the western side of the country (rain/snow/mix ?) and further precipitation, in presumably colder air, coming down from the northwest (and at a faster rate then the band moving east to west).

Is all the talk of this being a bust because the air coming down from the northwest is not cold enough so even if it undercuts it would not turn any rain to snow? Or are there other factors at play here?

Rain today.   Maybe a dusting of snow Thursday night.   And then spring.    At least it won't have been the worst winter in recent years!

---