Euro 4 crap imby but latest Met O forcast is much better for here.

https://youtu.be/Ee_t1IxvWfQ

Be nice to get something a little more noteworthy IMBY than so far this year but will wait and see what falls from the sky, best short term forecast in these situations I frequently find

That looks like a reasonable forecast, the southern counties should have a good event.

Sodding models London snowshield in perfect operation

too far north, those soft southerners will steal our snow again.

Have a look at the met o forecast I posted much better for London. Much further north than Euro4 upto Norwich

Kieron Approves of this post and the model that underpins it. 

LOL. 

I have my fingers crossed for you 🙂 .

The UKV (MetO app) doesn’t agree and suggests a wintry mix towards the south coast. 

Interesting that both the Beeb and the Meto have the snow much further north than some of the models we get to see. Basically a nowcast job tmrw.

I'm giving up on the front now. Cruel luck, given what had been modelled up to a few days ago (I'd bet my pants it would reach here if it were rain and summer)

But still looking out west into the Irish Sea, where showers seem to be beefing up.

Latest Beeb forecast for MBY looks very good 

Euro4 offers the slightest chance for MBY.  this literally happened last yr in the beast and the snow band moved up and got within 3 miles of my house.  we ended up with nothing, whilst the rest of the country came on this chat room with measurements in double digits snow depths..

it would saint.  Like i just mentioned.  It happend last yr in the beast.  Then 3 days later, a similar front came in with rain, same angle.  Dumped 30mm on me - no problem :O(

That chart looks a lot more promising than some of the output, with the West Midlands nicely in the target zone. I shall bank that one.

Hi all, we had 5 ish hours of snow tuesday. But nothing settled on the ground, then overnight into wednesday in Burnley we ended up everything white with about a centimetre of lying snow. As I said yesterday nice to see and I hope this is not the end game for this corner of Lancashire. As far as our contingent to the Midlands southwards I hope the potential snowfall comes off. GOOD LUCK

Cheers Paul S. 

The Beast delivered 2cms of snow here, so was an epic fail.  Also - these charts you get at 48 to 12 hours ahead are often extremely misleading.  Experience teaches us that the final forecast ie at 6 hours or less tends to be the one to believe, and then, when a range of models show a range of outcomes (ie 0cm, 0cm, 2cm, 3cm, 4cm, 7cm, 10cm) I tend to go for the median value, or lower and Im usually not far off!

That looks good actually. The angle of the front reminds me a little bit of 18 December 2010

Here is a link and an actual satellite image showing snowcover over parts of the UK, including a light cover on parts of the Chilterns and much of East Anglia, the north Downs of Kent (about 2cms at most locally, another slush fest at sea level) and our northern and western mountains. Polar low off N Scotland too.

http://www.woksat.info/etcaba30/aba30-1031-b-uk.html

and an image of the snow over western European mainland: http://www.woksat.info/etcaba30/aba30-1031-e-dk.html

Well I confidently predict that the following will happen, on the basis of cherry picking models and really wanting it to. It’s not entirely unsupported by the FAXes.... ish...

Front comes up and stalls just to the north of th north downs ridge. Heavy snow all night on Friday. A strengthening ENErly from the estuary feeds cold air in under it, boosting the front and causing it to intensify and Pivot Ross Geller style over the top of us through Friday.
A brief lull for sledging on Friday afternoon gives way to the low spiralling in from the south North Sea on Friday night.
This clears Saturday morning to allow further sledging.
I feel confident.

chances?

I love it when it forecasts 5 hours double snowflake, & the TV forecast says' it now looks as if....' implying the short term unpredictability, then goes on to say more snow in this area on Friday. Carry on snowman.

We appear to have developed a snow shield. Damn. Showers either deflecting to our south or dying before they reach here.

havent seen you post for a long time 🙂 Not since the MO red warnings I think.

im sure you’ll do well - I’m not so confident after yesterday’s no show for me.

I pop in now and again to have a nose about 😉  More so when the white stuff is forecast. There's still snow on the ground here.  Looks to me like a lot of South East Wales will be affected.  Some of the snow accumulation models are impressive (although what will happen in reality will probably be nothing like them)