Agreed. Thankfully it’s right at the end and other runs in the pack go to the other extreme.

Its not a chart we want to see. I could be wrong but that is a Bartlett high if I ever saw one.

GFS0z has this week's LP decaying as it moves off SE wards. For week 2 it has a series of Atlantic lows moving NW off Scotland and linking up with a depression off N Norway which could give Scotland some very cold air briefly. Then as Jim says, HP moves in from the south and looks well established by 3rd Dec - but it could easily be frost and fog rather than mild.

I don't entirely buy in to this scenario (a) it's quite different from yesterday, implying instability in the models (b) the jet stream continues to run first south of and then across the UK so I'd expect the current pattern of wet weather to continue 

ECM 0z has a similar pattern to the end of its run on the 24th.

GEFS confirms the instability with a wild scatter of temps after a brief burst of warmth on the 25th. Rain is general from the 23rd (a bit earlier in the SW) but again no agreement between the runs as to when and where.

On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

It would be however it is one scenario from the ensembles and many of the other anticyclonic options are somewhat more seasonal 

mooms I agree but I would add caution, there are a number of scenarios and “in between” options that may or may not occur, HP at this time of year can often lead to low level cold and fog no matter what the uppers say. 
however 17c would be toasty 🤣👍

That was already happening to a certain extent even when all of the flooding was taking place down south and because of that, I have forgotten the last time that we actually had any significant measurable rainfall here in Edinburgh as that was so long ago (over those bits of rainfall which have affected the east coast of Scotland have been too far east to affect us in any way).

The GFS in particular looks like carrying on that pattern and if that is the case, this month could well actually be on course to go down as our first drier than average month here since April, in terms of the actual rainfall amounts.

There is a long way to go but the latest stamps would lead me to go for a milder than average December. Things could change a lot several times before I even make a call so it is purely a snapshot view.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=384&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

17C in December. Its a no from me.

Great for canvassing and will boost turnout if election day is mild and dry 

To me that suggests the likelihood is a fairly cool start to December after a mild blip at the weekend. But a chance of the milder air hanging on.

The fact that the MetO updates over the past few days have been mentioning the possibility of wintry precipitation over high ground at times over as we head towards December suggests to me that even if it does turn somewhat milder compared to recently, it is unlikely to be especially mild. At least in the north, that is.

Screaming northerly on the trusty GFS 06z. Perhaps it's time for the much maligned "toppler" to make a comeback.

That chart sure is a thing of beauty

Edit: and technically, isn't that very much a positive NAO 

Except the operational is nearly at the bottom of the ensemble pack by then....

Pft! Mere detail. Begone with your curmudgeon.

If that came off, it could be a bit more than a toppler - signs of a Greenland High developing. However, it is presumably only once of many options given the spread in the ensembles. Still, nice to look at...

In the same way the 00z op model was at the top at the end of the run. Both are equally extreme/likely/unlikely. (Although realistically no doubt the milder option is more probable).

The old SSW malarkey is around:

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1196413242672926722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Prospects of an SSW in early December are improving, but as we saw in January this year, they do not necessarily deliver the goodies in our neck of the woods.

Yes and with the probability of a switch from a westerly QBO to an easterly some time in the next couple of months - in theory at least the two combined (or in proximity) should increase the chances of colder weather types later in the winter. Thats my current thinking anyway....though this can also be masked by just plain old climatology as that'll normally the coldest period of the year anyway. 

Waiting for the SSW last year was like pulling teeth.

...waiting for a Northern Rail train

"...people kept saying one was on the way, but it never seemed to arrive and when it finally did, it didn't do much"