They postponed a general election fairly recently due to foot and mouth – 2001? Presumably that would be on the cards if the forecast really is 'bad'* for 12 Dec?

 

* Using BBC lingo, apologies 

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Leave my Uncle Barry out of this!

Looking at the 06z between the 11th and 13th. I would say it looks like being raw and cold with sleet and snow over the hills above 200m with wintery showers through the Cheshire gap. As that low moves away there could be back edge snow but it wouldn’t last long.
Down here it would be hail showers turning wetter as the depression moves up from France before more of a wintery mix as it passes east.
Better than mild muck though!

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As much as we can always say - this was an outlier run, a one off, FI etc...

Look at the pattern and tell me that its not a million miles away from what weve been experiencing for the past 2 months or so.

Theres a good chance that it wont come off, but I think given how we are entering the winter, a scenario of this size and impact wouldnt be out of the question in my eye.

For that reason I see it less as a one off and almost expected to see in the charts. Fingers crossed this sets a pattern for the winter thereafter

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Actually we do not have to check back on winter general elections to find snow falling somewhere in the country on polling day.  Snow did in fact fall in many areas on May 3 1979 at the dawn of MT's reign.

How do you switch off autocorrect????

You type ‘Barty’ and your iPad thinks it knows better.

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It's funny you should say that. I've been thinking the same thing and, these charts we're seeing are not without support. This afternoon's ICON has moved towards the GFS operational as well.

Just imagine the rainmaker we had earlier in autumn that gave inland England a months worth of rain... as snow 

 

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Interesting week (weatherise) next week:

ICON 12z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_156_1.png 

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The way I see it, should that pattern continue, it should in theory track more south as the Jet does so.  Alot of the rainfall we had through autumn was only a couple of degrees above being snow.  i'm thinking as the winter cold grows and the Jet head south, we might be lucky.

 

Hence my thoughts on this 

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That's a typically arrogant Apple trait

 

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Back to the models, I wouldn't push the 12z GFS out of bed with a longer lasting and cold unstable NE airflow over the SE by mid-month and the Atlantic incursion taking longer to make its move. However, at 260 hrs and beyond, it's all in FI land anyway. 

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Full of promise at 300hrs potential Scandi build and sliding low

 

by 312 the low elongates to the SW and we get colder (-8C at 850hpa) air drawn in from the SE

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One of the most crazy runs ever with the jet diving over Africa at 300

Just got to get over that amplification hurdle @114 & its good.

we will see different outcomes for the next few days, but the pattern is clear. The Jet is set to dive south over europe next week. The impact of this isnt clear, but given an unsettled Atlantic could offer up snow anywhere in the UK.

Given the extent of heavy precipitation recently, its only reasonable to assume theres potential for a decent snowfall for some.

We just need to maintain the Jet dive signal over the next few runs.

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The GFS 12Z Op ends with a Scandi High and cold Easterlies

 

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That's some chilly air

 

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Ice days record snowfalls diving jet Scandi highs - welcome to GFS FI which starts at day 5

 

Although not a outlier, the Op is at the bottom of the pack in the Ensemble in terms of 850hpa temps, but I'd say it IS an outlier in terms of 2m temps at the end

 

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Not an outlier, Kieron. A trendsetter 😉

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Nicee to see some eye candy FI charts coinciding with the days with lowest insolation. It will be interesting to see if the output moderates in the next few days or if the recent trend continues, it will also be interesting to keep an eye on the 12th of December for obvious reasons. Realistically that is still in FI but the last few runs have been quite consistent in the general pattern.

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If only there was a 'like' button on here.  The ECM will make interesting viewing

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ECM 12z looks decent so far, IMO.

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Could be Election Day nightmare rain in the south though

Impressive consistency given the range.

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