This HP can stick around until August as far as I’m concerned!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Good grief.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92865-early-winter-models-teleconnections-and-nowcasting/?do=findComment&comment=4116212

Just as well the accuracy at that range isn't anything to write home about, because if it was it'd be time to write off the rest of the winter!

(Knocker has posted bits of the 45-day ECM ensembles and the overwhelming picture on those is of a positive NAO and AO... the only remotely interesting bit is a near-neutral NAO in the last week of January.)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Indeed. The temperature anomaly charts show ECM pulling out all the stops to guide us towards one of the warmest UK winters on record.

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

It's starting to look analogous to summer 2018 IMHO. It's the duration of above average temperatures rather than absolute values from individual days which will end-up being noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed. The temperature anomaly charts show ECM pulling out all the stops to guide us towards one of the warmest UK winters on record.

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

It's starting to look analogous to summer 2018 IMHO. It's the duration of above average temperatures rather than absolute values from individual days which will end-up being noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed. The temperature anomaly charts show ECM pulling out all the stops to guide us towards one of the warmest UK winters on record.

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

It's starting to look analogous to summer 2018 IMHO. It's the duration of above average temperatures rather than absolute values from individual days which will end-up being noteworthy. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Interesting that even at week 1 for the UK it (the temperature anomaly) is at odds with today’s GFS 00z op run http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

Perhaps they use different climate comparator data?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Bingo! For whatever reason, wxmaps uses a 1901-2000 base period, which is completely non-standard.

The ECM charts are less clear, as the two sources below show the same charts but with different base periods:

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

I suspect the former is 1981-2000 and the latter is 1961-1990, as the temperature anomalies are far higher on the second link.

Either way, though, those ECM ensembles show a very strong jet, strong zonality across the Atlantic and the jet displaced a bit north of normal as we go into late January.

That tallies well with the AO/NAO charts from the 45-dayer posted earlier.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Midday probability forecast suggest a mainly +NAO throughout the first half of January. Colder shots look set to be short-lived and there's little or no sign of snow in southern and central regions away from high ground https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/wrbMvO2sTu

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) December 31, 2019

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

And no one mentioned about the developing easterly QBO and the fact we are at solar minimum? Well, so much for colder winters around solar minimum. So we know this isn't what can contribute for a colder winter. - Same for last year.

Back on topic a big warming at 1hpa - will this infiltrate down into 10hpa:

Will it have a tropospheric response? Quite a warming? can I not see +25c moving in over top of North pole? With cold air pushed into Greenland /Canada and Russian side.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Midday probability forecast suggest a mainly +NAO throughout the first half of January. Colder shots look set to be short-lived and there's little or no sign of snow in southern and central regions away from high ground https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/wrbMvO2sTu

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) December 31, 2019

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I agree with that summary.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I agree with that summary.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

And no one mentioned about the developing easterly QBO and the fact we are at solar minimum? Well, so much for colder winters around solar minimum. So we know this isn't what can contribute for a colder winter. - Same for last year.

Back on topic a big warming at 1hpa - will this infiltrate down into 10hpa:

Will it have a topospheric response? Quite a warming? can I not see +25c moving in over top of North pole? With cold air pushed into Greenland /Canada and Russian side. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Which ever way you paint it, it’s dire for coldies (for the majority of the UK) until well into January.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yep. Really dire. We’re looking at hoping for a frost in February if we’re lucky. Thankfully I’ll get my snow fix in the Alps in April. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Hmf... model accuracy has performed perfectly well over Christmas. So unfortunately the endless mildness is just as likely:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Bloody awful:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Somewhat OTT as there will be places which have a frost tonight, like there were last night and certainly again by the weekend. 

No sign of significantly wintry weather yet but the outlook is less mild than it has been at least.

Originally Posted by: doctormog