GEFS full of potential tonight out in FI, about 5 or6 easterlies of interest out there. Permutation 20 would develope nicely.

Happy new year - fingers crossed 

Martin

P18 from T+300 onward!

Gfs goes from watm southwesterlies to direct westerly influence... with colder segments from time to time. So things look to cool off.

Nothing crazy on the cards

Oh... and happy new year, all the best for 2020

The MetO forecast for here for the next week isn't a good omen - no sun whatever and daytime temps in a rut at 10+/- 2C. But over to the models proper ...

GFS op continues with HP around the UK with W or SW winds but there's a break on Fri 10th with  trough over the UK after which the HP resumes but less strongly so the westerlies come from a colder source. 

ECM just keeps the HP going

Jetstream mostly looping around until Mon 6th then mostly running across the UK to the 17th with a tendency to weaken as soon as it leaves us and run northwards across Norway. I don't know what this signifies - westerlies keeping Siberia warm or opening the door for mid European easterlies? More straw-clutching.

GEFS temps low around the 4th, higher around the 8th, then the mean drops back to the seasonal normal though both op and control have a period below normal around the 10th and above around the 14th. On the dry side, any rain mostly in the west. Just a few glimmers of hope for cherry picking from the postage stamps, but only far out in FI.

Long way to go yet winter is barely two weeks old.

Brutal 2nd half of winter and possibly spring could be coming up according to some  I have heard ,something to do with.CET previous and pattern matching,might bring this forum out of hibernation for a change.

In the short term I see that during the last 24 hours GFS has tended to water down this weekend's "northerly blast".

It's over 4 weeks old according to the meterological definition (which, as this is a weather site, is the one most of us will be using).

Interesting to see the 6z GFS has a go at inflating a Scandinavian High at the end of the run. Oddly the 6z on Christmas Day did the same thing at the same time range, but it soon vanished in the 12z output. Wonder if this one will do the same...

There was never a “northerly blast” forecast for the weekend, just the brief advection of cold associated with an area of low pressure to the north. It was touch and go if it would even affect here never mind further south in Scotland. What was a small snow risk for northernmost parts is now an even smaller risk. The new “improved” GFS seems to be even worse at overdoing the cold from northerlies than its predecessor. The other main models have not really changed from what they showed initially (t850s at or just below-5°C up here). 

Not so much a case of watering down as much as the GFS overstating a risk. 

Though I myself am a great one for clutching at straws, I confess that I'm struggling to see much sign of a Scandi High on that 06Z operational run.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPSC06_336_1.png 

That's nothing and it's so far north to have any influence and it's a long way out.

Nobody suggested otherwise, I was answering a question. 

not all Scandi highs influence directly but it is one

Well we have till late March to see falling and lying snow,here,sometimes early April.so loads of time left.march 1891 and late march 1952 are good examples of what still can happen.

Your location had sub zero maxes in march 2018 ,which is weeks away.

Should see some signs fairly soon of this big change to a bitter 2nd half of winter in the models,if these predictions are close to being correct.

This could be the least "winter is over post of all time"!?? 31 days is 4 weeks and 3 days. Optimistic to say the least! 31/91 = is just over a third of the winter gone. Who are the "some" predicting a "brutal" late winter and Spring? The Express? But yes, a long way to go, although with the next two weeks not look promising in the South that will be over half of the winter. On a positive note March is always more likely to bring snow here than November though.

Still not a lot to grab on to at the moment , I've tried to take a break from model watching but still cant resist , was hoping low solar and Easterly QBO could influence but nothing as yet .

Time will tell , got many weeks left yet .

Yes I was going to say? Just why are we not getting any northerlies or easterlies? - So it clearly isn't anything to do with the transitioning to an QBO and at least we know that Solar Minimum winters can still be exceptionally zonal and /or mild.So my guess is that there is a huge ridge in the NE Pacific and of course the warm SST's in the Atlantic which is to blame as well in combination of exceptionally cold stratospheric temperatures? What do you think??

Well Gav went for a slightly colder than average winter with Dec and Feb being the coldest ? looks a bust then …………….no negativity towards Gav if anyone knows his stuff he certainly does , just goes to show how hard it is to get a handle of a UK winter 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html