OK so 1868-69 is the mildest CET winter on record: Dec 7.2, Jan 5.6, Feb 7.5 making a total of 20.3 "degree months". (I'm simplifying and assuming all months are the same length here)

We are currently at 5.8 so we need 14.6 from January and February to beat that. Splitting the difference at 7.3C for both would require a joint second mildest January (equalling 1921 and 1796; the record is 1916 at 7.5C), and a joint third mildest February (matching 1998 and 1990; the top two are 1779 at 7.9C and 1869 at 7.5C).

It could happen but it would take an exceptionally prolonged pattern lasting for the next two months.

Yes that's the concern - given Easter is mid April this year it almost looks like a text book winter spell could occur end of March and into April. Just for fun I had a look at the CFS long range model early this morning and unsurprisingly late March into April we have constant air from the east and north..typical!  For the immediate time frame apart from the odd rogue member in the GFS suite nothing but relentless zonality all the way out to 384 hours away.  With SST's the way they are and the AO highly positive with the NAO trending that way too, there's not much chance of anything cold on the horizon with that sort of set up. 

What about for the UK as a whole rather than CET area? Also, what would it take to get into the top 10 mildest winters either by CET or UK temperatures? 

Oh dear this nightmare of a winter continues - from start to finish on the 06z run and look at the crazy warmth here - looks like you have to go to northern Russia to find sub-zero daytime maxes take a look at forecast /proposed temp chart for +222 (11th):

The only comfort I get is knowing that the UK isn't alone. I don't think an easterly will bring anything cold so perhaps a northerly? Iceland is the only country with sub zero daytime maxes so here's to a northerly!?

Alps could have a major issue here with lack of snow - esp given such a stubborn Euro HP. - Been so persistent Hasn't it.?

Ensembles for NYC - they are not having a break from the deluge either:

Some precipitation ensembles go off the scale!! - Looks lie they will get plan old rain rather than snow.

I don't have the stats to hand or the time, unfortunately, maybe someone else does? I imagine Scotland might be up there with the mildest conditions.

559dam on the GFS 06z.

Look at this exceptional warmth in central Europe moreso over the Alps for next 2 weeks: No ensemble members going down to -10@ 850hpa this is so unusual. There are one or two going up to +10 @ 850hpa on 10th January with many at or above +5c.

I've given up on cold for the short term but am now looking at the models for signs of just a glimpse of sunshine now and again. Would be nice!

Finally found somewhere colder than normal - Northern Canada - if you want cold perhaps Rockies is the place to be and or northern Canada- Look at Yellowknife NWT: - Doc?

dont worry Tally the cold will eventually arrive- probably around late springtime knowing our luck. Some exceptional output at the minute- some of those thicknesses are insane. We worth a screenshot or two for posterity 

Maybe something a little more promising on extended EC anomalies with increase in heights further North than previous update:

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1212749543030345728?s=21

Up until about 10 years ago, when I did the analysis, the mildest winters in the CET series were:

1. 1868-9 6.7

2. 1833-4 6.6

3. 2006-7 6.5

4. 1988-9 6.5

5. 1974-5 6.5

6. 1685-6 6.3 (in the coldest period of the LIA and just two years after the coldest winter on record!)

7. 1989-90 6.3

8. 1795-6 6.3

9. 1934-5 6.1

10. 1997-8 6.1

11. 1733-4 6.1

I've included #11 because #2, #9 and #11 suggest a period of close to 100 years for some very mild winters. Just a coincidence, surely?

Interesting to note IMO that of those 11 winters, only four are from the post-1988 era with five of them coming in the 19th century or earlier than that.

Yes, it shows that there have always been very mild winters, though they've clearly become more frequent recently. As I said, my figures only go up to about 10 years ago. Since then, there may well have been one or two more winters making the top 10. It's also interesting how close together the mildest winters are, while the coldest ones are much more spread out.

I should mention that in deriving the values I took the different lengths of the months into account, except that it would have been too fiddly to handle Leap Years correctly so I took February as always having 28 days. The error introduced is tiny. Also up to 1698, the lack of reliable data means that the CET monthly means can only be estimated to the nearest half-degree. So the figure for that very mild winter of 1685-6 could easily be out by 0.1 or even 0.2 degrees in either direction.

Starting to look more and more like the Bartlett Winters of '88 & 89. 

Yep absolutely awful, even the shots of PM air have pretty much disappeared. 

In fairness we are due one.

4 since 1988, the rest over a 300 odd year period. Voldemort weather, says it all really. 

True, although none of them managed to dethrone 1868-69 as the mildest on record.

Just goes to show how far this winter will have to go to do that.

Not as much as we're due a midwinter easterly! It's a shame probability doesn't work like the way I'd want it to, it'd be nice to think that every winter we don't have one increases the chance of the next one having one, but of course it doesn't.

Still, for once there are two members of GEFS bringing -10s to London. There's even an easterly if you look hard enough...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=324&mode=0&carte=0

more likely to cause a cool miserable summer