this westerly driven pattern is something the models always seem to cope very well with. 

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

Every year people write off weeks of weather in advance. Sometimes their guesses are correct sometimes their guesses are incorrect.

So far today things look like continuing the mobile outlook. From significantly above average in the north today (and very windy) to below average by tomorrow (although still milder further south). After that the Atlantic Express continues with the unsettled conditions the most noteworthy thing (and a lack of prolonged cold).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

“Might” indicates probability “won’t” suggests certainty. The reality is cold or mind beyond s week or so, we don’t know more than U.K.-climate and experience-based hunches. Such guesswork/educated guesswork is fine but it’s nit model output discussion as the models cannot reliable predict at the range being discussed. Perhaps hinches are more for another thread?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Fascinating. I thought Feb '86 was the cold month that year.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

It was. Back when we actually had easterlies it wasn't unusual to have two or more snow events a winter! Crazy, huh?

(Some of the major events in the past had one or more smaller cold and/or snowy events preceding them, or as my mum used to say "it practices first" - a saying which held up to the turn of the millennium at least.)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

It was. Back when we actually had easterlies it wasn't unusual to have two or more snow events a winter! Crazy, huh?

(Some of the major events in the past had one or more smaller cold and/or snowy events preceding them, or as my mum used to say "it practices first" - a saying which held up to the turn of the millennium at least.)

Not much sign of that being tested any time soon, though, although the 12z GFS does build a significant high in the vicinity of the UK at the end of the run. If we can't get cold and snowy, a nice area of high pressure settling things down would be a good alternative!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

January could be milder /warmer than November our Autumn month. How ironic that would be?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

There is one glimmer of hope would be that the models have been unreliable as we all know - many models last year went for a blocked cold February and we had the warmest daytime max ever recorded and warmest Feb, furthermore the Models went for a milder than average Autumn 2019 and it turned out colder than average esp in October 2019 when the CET had an anomaly of -0.6c below average and November 2019 had an anomaly of -0.3c below average. The models were correct in predicting it wetter than average but the forecast was for it to be milder and it turned out colder than average moreso - when I was in Budapest between 10th and 17th November for my birthday this was the scene less than 20 miles from Exeter:

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/heavy-snow-fall-devon-live-3534924

Off topic I know but relevant because no seasonal model outputs went for a colder than average October or November. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I totally agree with that Gavin. The only point I am trying to make to Kieren and others is that while the model output looks very poor for cold fans as things stand at this moment in time, given it is still only 7th January we are still some way off from entering what I would call "last chance saloon" territory for this current winter season.

I mentioned 2005 earlier as it was during the early weeks of that year that I first began following the model output regularly. I seem to recall that the opening month or so of the 04/05 winter was just as poor for cold fans as the current winter has been, and during the first week or so of January there was little if any indication from the models of any real change to cold. However, late on in January and things began to change. We had a spell of HP dominated weather which began in late January and continued into the early days of February. Towards the end of February we then had a cold easterly spell which brought snow to some areas, although it was nothing on the scale of what happened during the same period in 2018.

If we were now in early-mid February with the current pattern still in place, then I would be more inclined to agree with Kieren. But I repeat, this is only 7th January, not 7th February or even later than that.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I totally agree with that Gavin. The only point I am trying to make to Kieren and others is that while the model output looks very poor for cold fans as things stand at this moment in time, given it is still only 7th January we are still some way off from entering what I would call "last chance saloon" territory for this current winter season.

I mentioned 2005 earlier as it was during the early weeks of that year that I first began following the model output regularly. I seem to recall that the opening month or so of the 04/05 winter was just as poor for cold fans as the current winter has been, and during the first week or so of January there was little if any indication from the models of any real change to cold. However, late on in January and things began to change. We had a spell of HP dominated weather which began in late January and continued into the early days of February. Towards the end of February we then had a cold easterly spell which brought snow to some areas, although it was nothing on the scale of what happened during the same period in 2018.

If we were now in early-mid February with the current pattern still in place, then I would be more inclined to agree with Kieren. But I repeat, this is only 7th January, not 7th February or even later than that.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Was it though? I know it finished as one of the mildest Februaries on record but from what I remember reading afterwards, it still finished behind the likes of 1998 and 1990 (and maybe even 2002) in terms of the final CET value.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Just for fun (and based on the current GFS run) for here

Current 500-1000hPa thickness = 557dam! and this time tomorrow, 527dam.

Current t850hPa 8°C and this time tomorrow -7°C.

While the latter values are just typically winter values the sudden change is quite remarkable.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 I expected 2 or 3 proper snow events in most winters during the 80s. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Any idea what the uk record swing in a day is?

Word record is 103 degrees in a day believe it or not according to google

#

The greatest temperature change in 24 hours occurred in Loma on January 15, 1972. The temperature rose exactly 103 degrees, from -54 degrees Fahrenheit to 49 degrees. This is the world record for a 24—hour temperature change

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I do happen to know this because I posted an article only the other day that mentioned it in passing.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06294.x

A dramatic rise in temperature took place across Scotland during the late morning and early afternoon of 30 December as the intensely cold stagnant air trapped in valley inversions was swept away by the freshening south-easterly breeze. At Altnaharra the air temperature rose from -21.2 degC at 1200GMT to just -1.0 degC at 1500GMT, a rise of 20.2 degC in three hours. At 1400GMT the wind was 310deg 3kn, but an hour later it was 110deg 6kn. The east-southeasterly breeze continued to pick up during the afternoon (140deg 15kn at 2100GMT), and the temperature had reached 0 degC by 2000 GMT. The severe cold spell was over. To complete a remarkable spell of weather, by 0900GMT the following morning the temperature had reached 2.1degC, showing a daily range for the climatological day 30 December of 29.3 degC. This is the highest 'daily' range of temperature on record for any site in the British Isles.

A range of 29.3C (52.7F), from -27.2C to +2.1C on Dec 30 1995 in Altnaharra.

Although it counts as a single day for climatological purposes, in fact the -27.2C was soon after midnight on Dec 30, while the +2.1C was recorded just before 9am on Dec 31, and the overnight maximum "thrown back" to the following day. Although looking at the graph on that article, the temperature had reached about +1C by midnight, so the range on the actual day of December 30 (midnight to midnight) would be very nearly as high, at about 28C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K