Long time no speak Matty and now this - you must have a lot of time on your hands I see, that was posted and replied and acknowledge on 15th? Bit slow aren't you? This is a model output discussion anyway? I would be keen to see your contribution to this discussion thread Matty? Hopefully less incomprehensible guff than my posts!

a little bit uncalled for don’t you think? 
Ah,,,,, thinking,,,,, enough said 

Matty's like those ageing rock stars that come back and try to raise hell like they used to... but it comes of as tiresome and desperate rather than funny like the old days  Shame.

Back to the models and the GFS 00z not looking quite as encouraging as yesterday with any glimmer of cold pushed back into early Feb with plenty of scatter.

That 'tease' is in deep FI so it looks as if you'd better sign up for a course in patience training ... but that's what this winter's been about?

Looking at the jet, it's taking a more northerly course and looping until around Thu 23rd supporting HP over the UK, followed by a split jet N and S of the UK (still fairly settled weather) and only Fri 31st does it deliver a northerly punch.

GFS shows an early SW blast this weekend, then HP all through next week, as an E-W ridge to Sat 25th wrapping itself round an Iberian low, then after weakening, re-establishing a similar version the following week but sited a bit further east. ECM agreeing until later, the second spell of HP is placed further south allowing LP with strong cold NW-ly over Scotland.

GEFS for Brighton like yesterday, cool to 22nd, mild to 27th, back to normal but the control run dipping cold like yesterday; very dry to 27th, then some rain. Similar all the way up to Scotland, though the mild spell starts a little earlier and the number of colder runs at the end is larger, Inverness in particular having consistently high snow row figures at that stage. In FI, mildish HP predominates though a few runs with cold northerlies can be found.

further afield, some properly cold air over Moscow in week 2, the first time this 'winter' that temps have not been above normal, but unfortunately showing a tendency to move south rather than west - we need that HP over Scandi!http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 but it looks as if Norwegian mountains are due for a big snow dump http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Indeed Neil. This is just a gut feeling rather than evidence based but I have been unimpressed by the latest (v3) version of the GFS model, to the extent that I almost expect the scenario you describe before it happens. Perhaps globally its performance is satisfactory but for the U.K. it seems to me to be less reliable than its predecessor.

My view remains unchanged. This winter could be a "mild classic" finishing in the all time top 10. We're struggling to get a northerly burp let alone a toppler or anything more notable. The kibosh could be colder conditions in late February.

ECM30 has updated this morning. It suggests the chase for mild records is most definitely on. Positive temperature anomalies across the whole of the UK during week 2,3 and 4. Week 1 is positive across the north, although there is no anomaly in the south, presumably due to the high pressure pattern.

ECM 240 hours sums up the potential 'but likely' plight for Europe.

Very cold air spilling out of the Canada and the USA interacting the jet stream with strong cyclogenesis throwing zonality well across into scandinavia.

-10c 850Hpa locked away across Siberia

Out of interest, were you anticipating colder conditions at the back end of the winter when you wrote your TWO winter forecast, Brian?

No and I'm not convinced now either. Just flagging it as a possibility. 

Brian your TWO winter forecast has been as good as any so far.

The fact that for February you have this:

'Second half

The middle part of the month may bring a spell of colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions.'

gives people looking for even a bit of snow some hope given the accuracy so far

00z 850hPa for London ensembles. On Jan 31st the op run and control run are 20C apart, -12 to +8.  Not a lot of use really is it. Renders the mean useless with that amount of sd.

Yet he ranted about this thread and me posting saying I was 'sucking the life out of valuable reply time with "incomprehensible guff!"

Yet Matty has the time reply to my post days after I posted it and hasn't posted anything himself?! ha the irony. 

But back to models. -Let's look at NAO - Potential for some negativity towards the end of January after positive since start of December - could all change but maybe we go go negative at some point this winter - just a matter of when?!

The PV should be weakening soon as temps rise a little in the stratosphere and remember we have the developing easterly QBO so fingers crossed. AO is set to return to neutral (at least for now!).

Latest NAO chart.

Looking at the 06z ensembles: as fairweather said - quite a lof of Scatter and ensembles around 30th are some 20c apart:

Control is colder option and one thing we can all be proud of - FINALLY - is a welcome break from wind and rain for at least the next 7-10 days. Could be the driest spell we have seen since August maybe??

Can you all please stop bullying Matty.

Thanks.

Gfs is  completely hopeless, the op keeps throwing out mild runs, with plenty of colder options in the pack. 

Hasn't got a clue is the obvious conclusion with so much difference in temperature in the ensemble pack.

Wouldn't be so quiet in here if had picked one of the many colder options for its operational run. 

Maybe next run will be showing something much colder.. 

GFS has high pressure in charge of the UK weather for the next two weeks. Snow? Forget it. Frost and fog? Quite likely so may look a bit wintry at times. HP cell to max 1045mb  over UK persists to Fri 24th, then as that moves off to the SE, another develops by Wed 29th over N France and persists to end of run. Windy from the W over Scotland at times.

Notable zonal flow on Thu 30th when the 1010mb isobar runs not far off straight from one edge of the TWO chart to the other.

ECM develops the second HP more slowly and further south, allowing cold NW-ly on the E side of Britain on Mon 27th, but similar up to then.

That cold pool over Moscow mentioned yesterday is no longer forecast, though Norway is still due for a big snow dump on its west coast.

GEFS runs agree on temps 2-3C below seasonal average for a few days , then similarly 2-3C above until ca 26 Jan (and higher than that in Scotland) after which divergence with mean still around normal, but some cold runs to ponder on. Very dry throughout in S, some rain later on in N, but you have to go as far N as Inverness to find significant amounts.

Poor runs this morning for something properly below -5 850s as Retron states. The only glimmer I see this morning is the distant FI rumblings of trying to build a scandi high pressure. Check out the postage stamps at the end of the gfs runs. Must have something to cling onto! At least high pressure seems to be sticking around and a couple of frosts!
Martin