Well we got into the 20s last February...

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Has to be said, GFS is looking positively balmy in the 10 day time frame.

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If we are going to look at FI on a GFS chart we may as well look at day 14 as well as day 10. Both, based on recent experience, will be equally useless. Before then and through the weekend things look like turning cooler and (much) more unsettled for next week. 

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Unlucky for Kent on Monday evening if the 12z GFS is to go by on (ICON also shows a similar scenario), talk about rubbing salt in the wound but it looks like the Netherlands may end up bearing the brunt of that compact but sharp shortwave low a little further on down the line . . . 

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Focussing on the here and now (relatively) and it’s still unclear how much if any of an impact the daughter system on Monday will have. Judging by the toning down on the UKM text forecast, their own models and interpretation of others probably doesn’t phase this low properly until after it exits the UK. Time for change and the risk of severe gales still exists IMO.
The risk of snowfall with elevation in the low uppers also exists.

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Am I reading the ensembles on front page correctly

From Saturday no zeros for snow row for Edinburgh

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Stop this nonsense at once! Haven't you heard? Winter is over!

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please show some decorum- no swearing in the forum thank you 😉

Late winter weakening of PV (as is the norm) will always come into play into Feb. Models once more are showing this, but it is looking like setting up to our disadvantage with W or NW regime favoured.

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I can’t remember seeing a warmer set of DeBilt ENS in January before:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim 

If we in the UK think it’s a bad season for mildness and lack of snow, imagine how they feel in Holland, Germany, Denmark etc.
On topic, and the cyclonic developments early next week continue to flex the computational muscles with the threat of a very windy spell still prevalent.

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Hmm - interesting for the southern coastal counties for the 28th Jan - with a stripe of snow falling and settling from Cornwall to Kent. This from Polar Maritime air, racing across the hot bath of the Atlantic with such fury that it makes it still within the -5 850 isotherm, something I witnessed back around 1980 when I was living in West Sussex, and I was awoken by furious pelting rain, which suddenly turned to sleet and then snow, with the biggest flakes I have ever seen and within minutes the surfaces went white as the land was pummelled by jet propelled mega-flakes. We got about 2" of snow that went slushy by midday, but travelling from my 30m asl home to East Sussex - in places 150m asl, there was a level foot of snow, and it was a true winter wonderland that lasted. Elevation makes that sort of difference with that source of snow, but when it was falling it was an amazing spectacle. I hope it happens again, but I won't see it now being in Est Anglia. I need a Scandinavia high ideally. Maybe he euro high in F1 will migrate north as the jet buckles as it is shown to do on the last slides.

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In general terms, could I save myself time by re-posting yesterdays's summary? But there are some 'subtle' changes, to quote the BBC presenters ...

Generally westerly and zonal, rather windy at least to start with. Depression on Mon/Tue 27/28th not so intense locally, but affecting a larger area and bringing cold air much further south than previously forecast (snow in the S? Maybe,  https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/uk/next3to6days/snow is optimistic for the S and W). Another local trough with gales down the E coast on Tue 4th, then anticyclone from Fri 7th centred over the UK at 1035mb, moving slowly eastwards.

GFS and ECM much the same

GEFS rain/pptn from 27th onward, diminishing after a few days; cold spell for 2-3 days from 28th then variable temps with mean a little above seasonal norm

Only Inverness has consistently big snow row figures, elsewhere yo can do a bit of cherry-picking around the 28th.

 

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GFS seems to be drying out next week steadily this side which is pleasing, they suggest just 7mm here and similar for week 2.

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After the brief polar maritime incursion around 29th January there is a really strong signal for an enhanced period of zonality as we enter February. A mean pressure of sub 970mb west of Iceland at 8 days out quite something and demonstrates the tightness of this seemingly locked in pattern.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_300_1.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_87_1.png 

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Yes Doc, a change to a nice cold block this afternoon. Been plenty of these in the ensembles recently, just not enough of them!

Martin

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GFS ensembles showing some signs of a change again out in the far reaches of FI with the PV easing? The ensembles showing the colder high pressure reactions.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

Is it the possible split being shown? Where this will occur or if it will occur is the question. (No being the easy choice)

Martin

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Beware a rouge GFS OP run bearing gifts.
Be even more aware if it’s post 300hrs.
I’m all for optimism, but this winter has exhausted my supply 😉

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Indeed Neil....one to watch. 

Could be some wintry showers in Aberdeenshire and Norfolk.

There is also the chance of a back to back frost AND 850Hpa's sub -5c for 36 hours in the south ! 

Roll on the 18z...

 

 

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I wouldn’t trust a GFSv3 chart at 200 never mind 300hr in isolation under any circumstances. That aside, there is no consistent signal for cold in that range currently. The point is that the GFS op runs in isolation at that timescale have been especially useless recently. It is OK up to day five or perhaps six, beyond that ‘disappointing’ would be polite way of describing it.

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Ecm keen on Febuary starting very mild.When will we ever get out of this wretched pattern.

Early next week could be the best chance of snow so far this winter.

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To my mind the GFS op has been showing a chance of snow for some southern areas next Tuesday for at least a week now. I’m often astonished by how well it can predict these eddies in the atmosphere so far out.

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All aboard the SSW train, I think this is our last and only hope. Things are starting to look pretty toasty up top and a big fat Russian high beginning to appear in the models post t192. Who knows whether it is another false dawn. Wishful thinking on my part this one looks to have legs. if so it would make sense to see the Siberian high in response to such forcing which could push heights into the Arctic for mid latitude highs to ridge up to. I believe.

Or only, even. 

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