Yes it really is amazing how similar the charts have been all winter. If I open the chart viewer on a random day and click a random chart I can guess with a high degree of accuracy what it’s going to look like, and it’s been the same for seven weeks now. 

From the point of view of my own area, the winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16 which were both poor for coldies were just as bad as this one for lack of anything wintry. Even when the worst of the zonal weather finally relented as we moved into the final month, there was still a lack of anything notable cold.

What happens in February will be key IMO, Brian.

If the pattern that we have had in place since early December persists for another month or so, I think there would be a pretty good chance of this winter going down as one of the top 10 mildest on record for the UK. If however there are changes upstream or way up in the stratosphere (which Tallyho mentioned above) which could lead to an end to the high pressure to the south & low pressure to the north atlantic dominated pattern we have seen over the last seven weeks, it could knock the chances of it being one of the top 10 mildest on the head somewhat. As ever, we shall see.

Wrt the potential SSW I note the reply from Marco Petagna who is a Met Office forecaster. I think it puts things nicely in context.

Absolutely...reminds me of Newton's 3rd law...for every action there is equal and opposite reaction

— marco petagna (@Petagna) January 25, 2020

Brian? doubt you may answer but do you still think that there is a chance for a colder spell with something to offer for all' as mentioned in February forecast?

any winter forecast... for Feb:

"The middle part of the month may bring a spell of colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions."

The forum has been in decline for years so I can't give you any meaningful stats about this thread. The rest of the site has continued to grow but this January has tested even that metric. There was plenty of interest last month and it turned out to be the busiest December since I set-up TWO. To give you an idea December 2019 saw a +37.76% increase in unique users vs December 2018. That trend has gone into reverse this month with January 2020 logging -4.45% fewer users than January 2019 at the same point in the month. This month is truly dire.

Edit: Should have added that it doesn't have to be cold. Big storms and heavy rain pull in the traffic too. When I say the month has been dire I mean it has been one long dog month. Day after day with nothing happening apart from hearing the dogs bark in the distance. An absolute horror show IMHO. 

Neither of those appalling winters were anywhere near as bad as this winter so far and that is saying something given that I would class 2013/14 as the worst winter of my lifetime.

I saw a snow cover on 19th November 2013, more snow that left a partial covering on 6th/7th December and a snow/hail mix on Christmas Eve. There were a total of seven days with snow or sleet falling and one day lying by the end of January.

2015/16 was nowhere near as bad as some of the rot we've been subjected to since 2013 - last winter and 16/17 were far worse. I had 5cm lying on 22nd November, 1cm on 30th November/1st December and another 5cm fall on 8th January. There were a total of nine days with snow/sleet falling and seven lying by the end of January.

Compare that with this horror show in which the complete sum of wintry weather amounts to two days of sleet back in November 

The only other year that both December and January drew a blank was of course 1988/89 but there had been a 7cm fall back in November. To find anything as comparatively awful as this winter you would need to go all the way back to 1933/34 which had three days of sleet by end of January - still one more than this disaster zone as so far produced 

6z run finished a while ago. I wouldn't let waiting for it to appear on WZ stop you doing other things this morning. The run in its entirety is available here. (Hint: It's not very exciting but there is some amplification):

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

Ill add that to book mark as always had wetter's on book mark! - Thanks.

Meanwhile, temps in strat are warming @ 10hpa rise of 302  in a few days from +192 z temps rise for -60 to -28c by 276z- so a significant warming and if this comes about we are looking at a displacement of the PV and not a destruction of the PV and reversal of zonal winds.

More of the same but some potential later on but it's in FI range:

Meanwhile enjoy the hail and possible sleety showers on Tuesday peeps! - This could be it!

Am enjoying said sleet and hail already...

LOL! Sums it all up very nicely Brian! 

You need to start giving some scare quotes to the Express, Brian. Never mind the accuracy, feel the traffic ;)

Surely near-record high pressure had some interest, at least for us if not for the masses? It also produced a couple of absolutely gorgeous days here last Sunday and Monday, with pretty much unbroken bright sunshine that was a refreshing change from the gloom that we've mostly had both before and since.

Then looks at 18z ensembles and realised the operational was a cold outlier ha. Typical.🙄

Uh oh Spaghettios!!!....

addressing TWO in general and not Tally in any way, shape or form. Ever. I am Stone Cold Steve Austin certain that spring will be a cold one, initially at least. Such an active jetstream as temps in the southern latitudes increase. Has cold spring written all over it. I can handle this with winter being a disaster for the coldies. 

Just thought I’d check and I see the op wasn’t an outlier: it had the support of another 2-3 members. Not significant but it certainly wasn’t on its own.

Well many models have gone for a milder than average spring. I really don't want a cold spring!!

GFS: westerlies continue, cold at first then milder to Mon 3rd Feb, then a high pressure cell drifts up from the south and parks itself over the UK until Tue 11th (peak pressure is 1045mb Thu 6th -Sat 8th in the NW). Almost looks as if it might deliver an easterly at one point but thinks better of it and retreats southwards Wed 12th, at which point large LP off Norway 945 mb

ECM similar though accentuating the N-lies on the E side of the HP cell

GEFS cold to Wed 30th then mild to Sun 2nd then agreement breaks up, nean near normal but more cold runs than yesterday. Rain around Sun 2nd , the drier, but more splashes of ran than I would expect from the pressure synoptics or from http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.. Mild spell less marked in Scotland and rain more generally in the NW (Belfast, Glasgow), again contrary to synoptics.

EURO4 brings wintry showers to merseyside

I suspect we may get some hail/sleet showers in the morning which might leave some slushy deposits on the car window.  But temps arent expected to get very low to sustain anything else.

The higher hills may do really well, especially in western scotland

Surprised there wasn't more straw clutching after the GFS 18z and 00z runs. Both showed OP and Control runs at -10C or lower  with minor support in ensembles at day 10, Feb 5th/6th. There was a time when people would have been excited by a "pub run" like that. Older and wiser now I guess, and toned back down by this morning's 06z.

GFS deepest FI 6z looks extremely interesting - had to mention as it will have cleared off on the 12z